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UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Aug 9, 2016.

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  1. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    For the record, I'm not mad at all. I was just pointing out that your recommended bets fly directly in the face of YOUR OWN PERCENTAGES RELATIVE TO THE BETTING LINES. It's extremely odd.

    Best of luck to you man. I hope you make a boatload of $.
     
  2. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Thinking out loud here, I know condit has the better proven gas tank but let's say he wears Maia as a back pack for 2.5 rounds do we really think he'll have more than Maia left in the tank? I think he has slowed down in championship rounds a little bit before and that's without getting smothered for half the fight.
     
  3. wack3d Silver Belt

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    no clue why he missed weight but obviously now it has to be a case of dog or pass.. even before he missed weight i was thinking laprise line was way too juiced
     
  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    He'll unquestionably have the better cardio no matter what happens. He's never slowed down in 5 rounds. Only argument you could even make for that is losing the fifth of the Lawler fight. But Maia slows in the third of fights he's dominating
     
  5. wack3d Silver Belt

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    ya he would still be alot fresher imo but i dont see condit giving up his back as "easy" as some of maia's past opponents
     
  6. crewman Brown Belt

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    I agree man, people talk about Condit being this cardio machine but Robbie stole that last round from him. Robbie finished stronger lol
     
  7. RyuDave Green Belt

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    Yeah I don't know but something to look for I between rounds to see how he's breathing.
     
  8. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Keep in mind that's how Robbie fights though. Defense first and a focus on managing energy. Carlos was balls to the wall all fight, as usual
     
  9. wack3d Silver Belt

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    that fight was a grueling war with a ton of damage if maia had been in condits shoes that night he would have been dead :D
     
  10. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Agree about the dog or pass. Gouti can bang and closes the distance pretty fast. I think he can catch Laprise. Maybe get a TD or two as well.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    liking miller +3.5 -135 quite a bit.

    lauzon's finishes are almost all early, and jim miller is still solid early in fights... i don't think joe finishes him. cap this closer to -200..
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ^^ what puo said.. sheesh, i take a few hours off overnight after the pitbull nonsense and find this stuff!
     
  13. Social Distance Warrior Banned Banned

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    I have pvz, condit and Pettis in a parlay, paying out +300.
     
  14. Social Distance Warrior Banned Banned

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    @PUO3 is a can...

    Yea I said it.
     
  15. Dooze Purple Belt

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    He fought a war that a lot of people thought he won against Lawler like 8 months ago. You can't use 8 months between fights as an argument for that given you're championing your Woodley pick and he was out for like 19 months between the Kelvin and Lawler fights. That and the fact 8 months in between fights is quite a normal amount for a lot of the elite guys. Shit Rumbles last fight was back in January before he murdered Glover last week.
     
  16. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    You forgot to mention your most recent value pick (Glover) in that list.
     
  17. plekz Brown Belt

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    if maia would attempt to absorb even half the damage condit did in that fight, he'd be fucking dead or in the hospital.
     
  18. iGnP Silver Belt

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    to be fair, he did say that the play on Glover was a small bet
     
  19. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Who was insulting infer? I sure wasn't. I was just criticising the nonsense he was posting in a kind way
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Agree. I think the Condit/Jackson strategy will be (assuming Condit is taken down early in the fight) to close guard and work short elbows and punches from there. Don't try to create space, don't try to sweep. Maia is just too good at taking that real estate inch by inch. If Condit is content to make Maia work to just hold him down he should be fresher heading into rd 3.

    Maia in a 3 round fight is such a beast because when he takes guys down, they panic. They know it's only 3 rounds and they can't afford to spend a round on their back. So they try to create space or cause a scramble and Maia inevitably takes their back and then they are in a far worse spot. With this being 5 rounds, Condit has the luxury of holding Maia in his guard for 5-10 minutes without feeling he's just given the fight away. He won't need to panic and lose position.

    At least that's how I see it.
     
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