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UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Aug 9, 2016.

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  1. wack3d Silver Belt

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    spot on exactly how i see it too.. also Condit is one of if not the most experienced fighter in the ufc and besides Gunnar, Condit has the best ground game of Maia's past opponents
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
  2. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    Crazy you can see Diego trying to say "I'm trying" right as Joe practically shut off the lights. The ref definitely helped Joe jk.
     
  3. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Diego was fine, he was just taking a breather before making his big move.
     
  4. fightfan2355 Brown Belt

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    Maia/Condit does feel like a trap, as someone mentioned earlier. I could see Condit going for something wild and knocking out the soon-to-be 39-year-old. He's got to know he's going to spend the majority of at least the first 2 rounds on his back defending. It's been about 10 years since Condit was last sub'd. Not sure how likely that is.
     
  5. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    The main event really is a trap. Seems like one of two outcomes will happen but I bet we see something crazy, or just a really fucking shitty decision like Silva vs Maia
     
  6. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Im not going to say Maia doesn't have a history of gassing, but he hasn't been gassing in the third round recently. Didn't against Gunnar, Brown or LaFlare. I would only really bank on a 5th round fatiguing from Maia if the fight is going his way.
     
  7. iGnP Silver Belt

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    he gassed against Brown lol
     
  8. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    I'd say he was hella tired but he still subbed him in the same round. When I think gassed I think survival mode.
     
  9. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Brown should have stopped him in that third round but he gave up. Maia was 100% gassed, rewatched it yesterday
     
  10. Tebowned Boise Dime.

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    100% gassed but still managed to take the back and sub him? 100% gassed seems like you're dead.
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    joe's a f'ing cool guy. i've followed him a lot in and out of the ufc since he was on tuf... but i don't like the way he looks to the ref to stop fights when he's got a possible tko.. did it with gomi, did it with sanchez.. he's too nice of a guy. not your typical fighter.

    ... but i want him to just keep going until the ref stops it, i do... maybe that's me as a bettor more than as a human being, but i hate it. i hate when guys walk off KO, too, unless it's ONE HUNDRED percent certain someone is out and not coming back
     
  12. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    maia wouldn't have looked the way he did early in rd 3 if he wasn't up 2 rounds, IMO.. he was playing it safe, biding his time

    i agree w/both of you. i was loving my brown rd 3 bet (as a hedge to maia plays) at the start of that round and maintain it was the right play.. maia was slower, no doubt. but he still had fight in him, obviously
     
  13. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Brown in no way "should have stopped him" in the third round, that is an absolutely silly comment. I just rewatched the third and Maia was sloppier with his takedowns, but still chaining them and actually outlanding Brown on the feet. Brown landed one shot/combination at the 4:30 mark at the end of one of Maia's sloppy takedowns but aside from Goldies "HES HURT" there actually wasn't anything there. Maia flopped to his back and enticed Brown into his guard which Maia methodically worked for 4 minutes to get a sub.

    Hope he doesn't "gas" against Condit then if you are taking him. **edit although if Brown didn't make the mistake of following Maia to the ground, it seemed like Maia may have tired out and been unable to bring the fight down again himself.
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
  14. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    He was definitely slowing in round 3 vs Brown. He's td attempts were getting very desperate, and he ate a big shot from Brown in butt scoot. Brown was an idiot to follow him down to the mat and paid for it

    EDIT see this was covered lol
     
  15. crewman Brown Belt

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    Maia faked that he got hurt when he laid down on his back, then when Brown took the bait and jumped into him, Maia grabs a single then just sticks to him like glue eventually finding the choke. I still don't acknowledge that Maia "gassed", gassed is Overeem vs Bigfoot or Barncat vs Josh Samman.
     
  16. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Kind of just being the devils advocate as essentially everyone on here agress that Maia is going to gas out a la the LaFlare 5th round, except starting in the 3rd rather than the 5th. I have not bet this fight yet (although im going to the fights, so its a guarantee I make some play). The LaFlare 5th is the only time Maia has been frightfully exhausted from a betting standpoint, but even there it didnt seem like hed be finished as he took so much out of LaFlare as well .
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Maia isn't easy to finish. Only happened one time. But if there was anyone to do it, it's Condit in a five rounder. As long as he has a good game plan and makes Maia work, come those championship rounds any sign of being tired will likely be exploited by Condit who's a much better fighter than Laflare and much more of a killer
     
  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    No SUBS +634
    u1.5 SUBS +149

    The 2 most likely subs are the last 2 fights. If it gets to the main event with no subs you can theoretically hedge with Maia sub a nice + odds, etc
     
  19. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    on it, great call
     
  20. BurningIce Green Belt

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    the cancelled fight coulda been a sub, but now i like it
     
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