UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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Agent Mulder said:
Ok didn't know he said that. Good for him. I have just always seen him as a guy that just does his thing no matter what but smart move by him if what your saying is true.
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If he does try to be offensive on the ground, he should follow up on those retirement talks and hang em up. Cause he'd clearly have lost a lot of brain cells to be so foolish.
 
condit being able to follow a gameplan to a ''t'' should never ever come under questioning for any fight after the fight he had with nick diaz. because that was a gameplan carried out to the letter, and eventhough you could litteraly see how uncomfortable he was carrying it out, he still did it.
 
goldennirvana said:
Lauzon is a lock as far as I'm concerned.
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Stop with the lock nonsense. It's pure and utter hodgwash and If you've been in the game as long as I have, you'd come to the realization that when betting nothing is ever a lock. Full disclosure: My bets on huge favorites are a testament to that and that's FACT!
#FACTS

I seriously get nauseous whenever I read the word lock. Take that out of your vocabulary if you want to be taken seriously as a competent sports bettor.

- Barry
 
plekz said:
condit being able to follow a gameplan to a ''t'' should never ever come under questioning for any fight after the fight he had with nick diaz. because that was a gameplan carried out to the letter, and eventhough you could litteraly see how uncomfortable he was carrying it out, he still did it.
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That's true. I wonder what he feels about that now tho. He has received so much shit for it lol.
 
barrygood1 said:
Stop with the lock nonsense. It's pure and utter hodgwash and If you've been in the game as long as I have, you'd come to the realization that when betting nothing is ever a lock. Full disclosure: My bets on huge favorites are a testament to that and that's FACT!
#FACTS

I seriously get nauseous whenever I read the word lock. Take that out of your vocabulary if you want to be taken seriously as a competent sports bettor.

- Barry
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Damn! Never thought I'd see the day where you would adress those -1000 bets. Good for you.
 
barrygood1 said:
Stop with the lock
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absolute? no, but there are fights or matches in sports where discrepancy in skill is so great and vast that it would take force majeure related incidents for it to not cash. for instance dillon danis vs joe lauzon at metamoris, lauzon is a decent grappler, but dillon danis is a black belt. the only way danis would have not subbed lauzon is if he either decided he didn't feel like it, or if he'd injured himself.

same goes for when barcelona are playing at home, and facing bottom tier teams, for them to choke and lose it takes injuries on key players.

Agent Mulder said:
That's true. I wonder what he feels about that now tho. He has received so much shit for it lol.
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he's been fighting since he was 18, and training more then 15 years all together. pretty sure he doesn't give a fuck what ''fans'' think. he's there to win, period.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
Oh.. and I think Alvey KTFO Casey but I may be biased since I like Alvey and strongly dislike Casey.
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I agree. After looking over the card for good bets I really like Alvey in this spot. If his KO line or ML are affordable that will be one of my main plays.

In regards to Lauzon/Miller I think this fight is really close. People calling Lauzon a lock and Miller washed up....uhh wut? Lauzon is no spring chicken himself. I suppose you could make the argument that Miller is mentally defeated but I don't buy that. Both guys are 32 years old with 30+ fights each. I just see two tough vets going at it - anything can happen here. I really don't see a strong fave either way. I respect this thread so I may end up being on Lauzon small, but not paying juice for him.
 
Wangyanqing said:
anyone knows why bet365 didn't provide live betting of FS1 fights last two cards？what happened to bet365？will we get live betting of FS1 card this weekend ？
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They had lb up for the final two FS1 fights this past weekend but didnt offer props on those two fights between rounds if i recall correctly. Im also pretty sure no props were offered for the Means fight between rounds. Cerrone and Conor fights the only other main card fights to go past r1 offered props between rounds. I suspect that they have been losing money on lb especially on props between rounds.
 
LEMONZEST said:
I agree. After looking over the card for good bets I really like Alvey in this spot. If his KO line or ML are affordable that will be one of my main plays.

In regards to Lauzon/Miller I think this fight is really close. People calling Lauzon a lock and Miller washed up....uhh wut? Lauzon is no spring chicken himself. I suppose you could make the argument that Miller is mentally defeated but I don't buy that. Both guys are 32 years old with 30+ fights each. I just see two tough vets going at it - anything can happen here. I really don't see a strong fave either way. I respect this thread so I may end up being on Lauzon small, but not paying juice for him.
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Yeah I agree. Lauzon is on the decline as well and Miller should have a striking advantage.
 
LEMONZEST said:
I agree. After looking over the card for good bets I really like Alvey in this spot. If his KO line or ML are affordable that will be one of my main plays.

In regards to Lauzon/Miller I think this fight is really close. People calling Lauzon a lock and Miller washed up....uhh wut? Lauzon is no spring chicken himself. I suppose you could make the argument that Miller is mentally defeated but I don't buy that. Both guys are 32 years old with 30+ fights each. I just see two tough vets going at it - anything can happen here. I really don't see a strong fave either way. I respect this thread so I may end up being on Lauzon small, but not paying juice for him.
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Alvey scares me due to his inactivity. Andrews was also able to take him down and spicely pinned him against the fence until he got sub'd if i recall correctly. For all his faults casey is a strong guy. I do favour alvey just worried he could be laid on here.

Valid point re lauzon i wouldnt normally bet him but i have no super confident leans so i could be reaching a little. I do lean lauzon and mcclellans opponent just not sure i can lay anything big. Maybe i should solely lb this card.

I like da bronx albeit not comfortable betting him. He seems to be made of sterner stuff since the cerrone and swanson fights. He outstruck stephens and if i recall correctly had no problem taking him down. Defo no way id bet pettis or use him as parlay fodder. Da bronx is one fighter i will not bet against as he could pull a sub from anywhere. Will defo be on his sub line if it pays well enough.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Alvey scares me due to his inactivity. Andrews was also able to take him down and spicely pinned him against the fence until he got sub'd if i recall correctly. For all his thoughts casey is a strong guy. I do favour alvey just worried he could be laid on here.

Valid point re lauzon i wouldnt normally bet him but i have no super confident leans so i could be reaching a little. I do lean lauzon and mcclellans opponent just not sure i can lay anything big. Maybe i should solely lb this card.

I like da bronx albeit not comfortable betting him. He seems to be made of sterner stuff since the cerrone and swanson fights. He outstruck stephens and if i recall correctly had no problem taking him down. Defo no way id bet pettis or use him as parlay fodder. Da bronx is one fighter i will not bet against as he could pull a sub from anywhere. Will defo be on his sub line if it pays well enough.
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Alvey vs Casey could be live bet heaven. I feel Casey wins round 1 (though he def could get KOd early too), but if Alvey survives its inevitable Casey goes to sleep.
 
think pettis v do bronx is going to end itd very often, due to the pettis being down three and trying a new weight class. meaning he needs to make it impressive, and do bronx is a very aggressive fighter aswell, especially with his grapple entries.
 
Agent Mulder said:
Yeah I agree. Lauzon is on the decline as well and Miller should have a striking advantage.
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Im not sure i agree. Lauzon generally either looks great (gomi sanchez chisea) or terrible (mj dunham). Ive been guilty of saying hes done a few times infact i have always underestimated him but he always surprises me. He struggles with good technical standup fighters with solid tdd and i think this creates an illusion that he is badly faded (im not saying hes in his prime but hes not imo as badly faded as people make out miller imo is definitely the more faded one). Against any other style he looks great. Miller is not a technical standup guy and his tdd is not very good. He is also not very good off his back see dariush chisea and sanchez fights hell even the castillo fight. This is not the same fighter that beat lauzon a few years back. Pat Healy also sub'd miller. If lauzon can ground miller i defo feel its advantage lauzon he is one of the best finishers in the game.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im not sure i agree. Lauzon generally either looks great (gomi sanchez chisea) or terrible (mj dunham). Ive been guilty of saying hes done a few times infact i have always underestimated him but he always surprises me. He struggles with good technical standup fighters with solid tdd and i think this creates an illusion that he is badly faded (im not saying hes in his prime but hes not imo as badly faded as people make out miller imo is definitely the more faded one). Against any other style he looks great. Miller is not a technical standup guy and his tdd is not very good. He is also not very good off his back see dariush chisea and sanchez fights hell even the castillo fight. This is not the same fighter that beat lauzon a few years back. Pat Healy also sub'd miller. If lauzon can ground miller i defo feel its advantage lauzon he is one of the best finishers in the game.
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ok ok I am getting convinced :) I will end up with probably 1u on Lauzon if I can get him around evens.

Pettis must be at an all time low confidence wise after losing 3 in a row. He lost to top tier competition but still...

I feel like Da Bronx's career arch is ascending and Pettis probably feels frustrated about now, especially after having been champ previously. Post-USADA Pettis is not the same is my guess. I might just play Da Bronx sub line and leave it at that.

I will have to think more about Alvey before pulling the trigger.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Im not sure i agree. Lauzon generally either looks great (gomi sanchez chisea) or terrible (mj dunham). Ive been guilty of saying hes done a few times infact i have always underestimated him but he always surprises me. He struggles with good technical standup fighters with solid tdd and i think this creates an illusion that he is badly faded (im not saying hes in his prime but hes not imo as badly faded as people make out miller imo is definitely the more faded one). Against any other style he looks great. Miller is not a technical standup guy and his tdd is not very good. He is also not very good off his back see dariush chisea and sanchez fights hell even the castillo fight. This is not the same fighter that beat lauzon a few years back. Pat Healy also sub'd miller. If lauzon can ground miller i defo feel its advantage lauzon he is one of the best finishers in the game.
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Im just not sure that he can take Miller down easily. Maybe he can but for me it's hard do call. I dont remember the Miller/Sanchez fight all that well but Sanchez had success by making Miller back up if I remember correctly, scoring TDs against the cage? I think that gameplan will be harder for Lauzon to execute. I'd take any guy @ good dog money but doubt that will be possible.
 
anyone care to PM me their thoughts on the opening line for Pettis/Oliveira? i guess its frowned upon to speculate before lines are released
 
The line was up a few weeks ago somewhere but been pulled since. Pettis was -180 i think
 
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