UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan, Sat, October 1

[DabanggData]

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
UFC Fight Night 211
UFC on ESPN+ 69
UFC Vegas 61
Saturday, October 1, 2022, UFC Apex, Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-vegas-57-2489
https://fightodds.io/odds/4257/ufc-fight-night-dern-vs-yan
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/89894-ufc-fight-night
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/67200
https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFCVegas61&src=typed_query&f=live





my next guest making her ufc debut october 1st at ufc fight night taking on julija stoliarenko it's chelsea chandler joining me here on the program for the very first time chelsea how are you i'm doing good thank you for having me hey thank you for joining me i see you're in the car right now i imagine you're leaving practice or going to practice where am i getting you yeah i'm going i'm going to practice awesome well don't want to make you late for that but uh first and foremost we just had ufc 279 last weekend how cool was it seeing nate diaz get that win over tony ferguson that that was a great fight i mean things couldn't have happened any better it was like a movie you know it was like he subbed him at 209 time it was great it was honestly the best situation that could happen and last submission went for him since the mcgregor fight which is interesting too right like all these kind of things just sort of worked out so so that was really awesome um let's talk about you though i mentioned the fight there october 1st when did you find out about this fight because it looked like you got a full camp yeah so i had an extended camp to get the weight down um it was four months so it's kind of it's it's hard to juggle when you want to peek at like six seven weeks in a camp uh basically i had two of those so i kind of slowed into it and and originally i was supposed to face leah lutzen so it kind of worked out good because the first two months was primarily striking and then two months ago or about a month and a half ago they were like hey leah lutson's injured you're fighting julia and and that was a complete change in uh in everything i had more jiu-jitsu so um it worked out well so i got enough of a notice to prepare for her versus the other girl and it basically was a brand new camp okay that's good so so plenty of time which is which is great um let's talk about julia style-wise how are you looking at this fight how do you feel like you match up against her i think i match up against her everywhere my jiu-jitsu is really good my stand-up is good and um you know she makes mistakes she falls on bottoms for submissions so i think uh anywhere this fight goes i'll be able to dominate who've been some of your main training partners up for this camp who's helping you get ready for the fight um so i've been training i've been training mostly at uh for the jujitsu portion at cesar gracie's in um pleasant hill so i've been training with black belts uh googa uh sean and then victor galden who's one of my main coaches and we've done a ton of armbar simulations passing the guard doing all that stuff so um i've had very high level uh training partners that's great and where do you do any other training you mentioned just there is do you do cross training at all oh yeah um so this this fight i had to do a lot more jiu jitsu but but i train at csa too uh once or twice a week um and then i also train in stockton i have uh felipe martinez my boxing coach so i've been doing boxing every day and uh uh big boss muay thai for my kickboxing so yeah i've i've done a lot but i've been primarily focusing on the jiu jitsu yeah no that makes sense um who do you get to work with over there at csa i know it's a pretty big gym yeah um so carrie carrie melendez comes in there and uh so i do a lot of stuff with her she's she's a little bit smaller than me but she's really fast so it's it's good and this girl is going to come at me at 100 miles an hour so so it's sometimes the smaller person is a lot faster you can be on your toes um i also i've worked with um amber's over there i haven't really worked with her too much this camp she's much taller than uh than me and my opponent so it kind of wasn't the right look and then uh they have some other girls that i do uh jiu-jitsu with when i'm over there too and and my sister she's she's supposed to be fighting too so i have her she's about the same size as the other girl that's awesome so a lot of variety which is great you know you always want that going into a fight right so yeah yeah you can't just have the same training partner and get ready for a fight you need to have different looks keep you on your toes get your heart rate up so that when the fight happens it's kind of like oh this has already happened in training i'm not gonna freak out about it yeah that's cool um how about the weight cut you mentioned having a lot of time how's all that going ahead of the fight uh it's going okay the fight is now at a catchweight 140 because we had found some medical issues i've been having some issues with my thyroid so that was kind of the reason why my weight wasn't going down as fast and i started medication for that and the weight was still not coming down as fast as it needed to so we talked to the ufc and came to an agreement at 140. okay that makes sense why would you want to fight at 145 because that's a division that they don't really do much with and it seems like they could use fighters like yourself and others to make that more of a division trust me i've begged for that fight i've begged for a fight at 45. i mean they're signing these girls that are from brazil who suck and are losing that island girl the twerking chick she's like just lost got choked out by a 35er and she's asking for nunez and um i think i would maul her then they have uh norma dumont who who's fighting um she gets to fight pro debuters or basically girls with one fight and then she gets to call out the island perez and i'm just like you're calling out these girls that are first of all they have records and they're they're fighters and and they're giving her these fights and i'm just like i'm on a four fight win streak why am i not fighting this girl at a weight class that i would prefer yeah but um i mean ufc i don't know if they're building the 45 and they're just kind of working with the girls they've got left and trying to push them out but i don't know because they signed ireland at 45 so i never know what they're doing but i would prefer to fight at 45. okay yeah no i was curious about that because i always think like and i always think there's a couple girls at 35 that could move up too that have trouble making the limit we just had macy's on last week have trouble making weight in her fight and that's been a couple fights for her now i think she'd be better at 45 too so it's uh yeah it's a pressure that they're putting on girls you know to make that 35 weight class because they don't have a ton of girls at 45 and yeah and then i mean you see the pressure and how it turns out in the fight macy got barely kicked in the liver and dropped and completely you know so when you cut that much weight your chin is gone your organs hurt she's running what 60 miles a week to make this weight i know it's undue stress on the body but you know it's that's what's happening and that's what's being allowed to happen so i mean here i am going to 140. so yeah okay well yeah that's interesting um who's gonna be in your corner for this fight um i'm gonna have uh i still thinking i've got victor galden for sure felipe martinez and then um caesar gracie i think he's going to be coming out for this one and then big boss muay thai so what a pretty good corner how do you see this fight playing out on october 1st uh i see her coming real hard the first round and uh you know i really could see it going anywhere ground standing and then i think maybe i see it going out as a full three-round war i mean there could be a finish but i see it going the full distance um and being an absolute war that i'm excited yeah i'm excited about so i think she takes she takes beatings she takes hits she falls on bottom so i think it's going to be a really good fight to showcase my skills and my preparedness and that i'm well-rounded so i'm really excited for this opportunity you've come through invicta i think the fighters you see that compete in invicta that go to the ufc have a lot of success because you know the match making in invicta's you know very much on point you don't get a lot of easy fights um do you feel like you will have jitters at all just because you've been with invicta like i feel like a lot of the women that come from invicta when they get in the ufc it's no big deal because they've already kind of fought on this big stage already yeah you know i talked to leslie smith about that because uh she's also one of my main training partners um she said when she went to ufc it was like another day in the park it wasn't like a big deal and i also i went to the apex when i was out there uh getting some tests done in i think july and we got to watch one of the fights and it's so quiet in there it's kind of eerie so i don't think i'm going to be like super nervous because i've already i've already been in that room i don't think there's a ton of people in there and uh i think it'll be another day yeah i think it'll be just like being defined i think there were more people at my last invicta fight than they're going to be at this fight so yeah yeah we'll see um we've all talked all about fighting what do you like doing on your downtime what are some of your hobbies outside of fighting um i do i train all the time i mean that's basically what i do i hunt but i haven't really had any time to hunt in a couple years because i'm always training um i i guess watch watch tv and relax but i mean okay well what's like are you netflix what are you watching right now on tv anything in particular watching any series um shoot i've watched a couple different ones uh but normally i'm i'm watching on the tv like csi miami or stuff like that or blue bloods all the the criminal stuff that i like watching yeah you mentioned hunting and you say don't get time to do it you kind of miss like kind of going out in the woods and stuff because i know for a lot of fighters you know it's very intense you're training all the time sometimes you need that break to just get out of the house get away from technology and all that right yeah no it's great um i love hunting um yeah just getting getting out there and it's been harder too as as like civilization and everything increases it's harder to find hunting spots you gotta like go private and have friends and take you hunting because like the public lands are just and the fires the fires kind of mess up a lot of the hunting too the last couple years so um i mean it's something i'd like to do hopefully i get more opportunities in the future yeah get like a hunting sponsor or something you're ufc fighter now maybe they can hook that up or something i don't know that would be great that would be awesome chelsea i know you got to get to practice i want to make you late if there's anyone you'd like to thank any sponsors any social media anything like that you want to plug i'll give you the last word okay my instagram is chelseachand209 my twitter is the same i'm just my gym felipe martinez boxing out in stockton gracie fighter in stockton i've been training at caesars up in pleasant hill and my coaches victor galdon philippe martinez he's a gracie big boss muay thai and the list goes on but yeah that's it thank you for having me

Chelsea Chandler -110 looks good


.

 

[B.Goetz]

Would it be reasonable consider Dern to be a better version of Yan's previous opponent, Claudia Gadelha? Thinking maybe Yan can keep it on the feet.

 

[mkess101]

Would it be reasonable consider Dern to be a better version of Yan's previous opponent, Claudia Gadelha? Thinking maybe Yan can keep it on the feet.

Gadelha has a better ability to get the fight to the mat than Dern, but Dern is in another stratosphere with her grappling once the fight does hit the mat. In a 3 rounder I think I'd like Yan's chances to stuff TD's and win a decision. Dern's striking (while improved from her start in MMA) is still wild and pretty sloppy. She throws hard, but it hittable and not very refined.

The issue I have is that it's a 5 round fight and it may be asking too much for Yan to stay off the mat for that long. And with Dern, she's so much better with her grappling than pretty much anyone else in WMMA...you can't bank on Yan surviving being put on her back even once. Even in the fight where Dern was dominated by Rodriguez, in round 4 Rodriguez made one mistake and ended up on her back and Dern got mount almost instantly. She likely would have finished Rodriguez except it was too close to the end of the round.

I don't know the best way to play it. I think it's incredibly unlikely that Yan finishes AND very unlikely Dern wins a decision. Because Dern is tough as hell so likely won't be stopped by strikes (and Yan hasn't finished even one UFC opponent yet) and obviously isn't getting subbed. And because Dern probably can't win a striking match, but is uber likely to finish if she gets it to the mat.

So maybe Yan decision plus Dern sub/itd is the way to play it depending on odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

bump

 

[Joonc]

Only play I'm really interested in is Yusuff, he is going to slaughter Shainis. I hope the oddsmakers look at their number records and keep the line from being too juiced.

 

[jnes]

Someone talk me out of Brendan Allen at +100. Jotko decision is one of my favourite plays in all of MMA but is Allen a level above him? I doubt Jotko can hurt Allen which is the way you beat him, at least Alvey had that threat. He’s one of those young new breed guys that’s good everywhere and is pretty big for 185, but I know people are waiting to fade him, I just don’t feel Jotko is the guy.

Pro tip: Putting money on Jotko fights are the only way to make them bearable.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Someone talk me out of Brendan Allen at +100. Jotko decision is one of my favourite plays in all of MMA but is Allen a level above him? I doubt Jotko can hurt Allen which is the way you beat him, at least Alvey had that threat. He’s one of those young new breed guys that’s good everywhere and is pretty big for 185, but I know people are waiting to fade him, I just don’t feel Jotko is the guy.

Pro tip: Putting money on Jotko fights are the only way to make them bearable.

Allen lost to Jacob Malkourn(close bs decision and i betted on Allen) let that sink in, i have no fear about Jotko. he nullified a better submission specialist in Gm3. And he went three hard rounds with Strickland. Allen is chinny and not a good enough wrestler for Jotko. Jotko is as safe as it gets, hopefully this time we don't see these favorites drop the ball like dumbasses did this last saturday. i make doe with guys like these, and if he loses than i'm fking cursed. I cant stand another card where all the bummy underdogs start winning again.

 

[PuertoRican]

Someone talk me out of Brendan Allen at +100. Jotko decision is one of my favourite plays in all of MMA but is Allen a level above him? I doubt Jotko can hurt Allen which is the way you beat him, at least Alvey had that threat. He’s one of those young new breed guys that’s good everywhere and is pretty big for 185, but I know people are waiting to fade him, I just don’t feel Jotko is the guy.

Pro tip: Putting money on Jotko fights are the only way to make them bearable.

I already bet Jotko -120.

Jotko is better on the feet, and he will be consistent throughout the entire 15 minutes. I expect Allen to start fast and look good in Round 1, but his pace will drop a lot sometime in Round 2. Even if Allen starts fasts, I still think Jotko is the better point striker and defensive striker, and I think Jotko's TDD is good enough to defend a possible TD attempt or two from Allen. I wouldn't be surprised if Jotko is able to get a late R2 or R3 take down when Allen least expects it, and Jotko won't be in any danger on top.

 

[Joonc]

Allen lost to Jacob Malkourn(close bs decision and i betted on Allen) let that sink in, i have no fear about Jotko. he nullified a better submission specialist in Gm3. And he went three hard rounds with Strickland. Allen is chinny and not a good enough wrestler for Jotko. Jotko is as safe as it gets, hopefully this time we don't see these favorites drop the ball like dumbasses did this last saturday. i make doe with guys like these, and if he loses than i'm fking cursed. I cant stand another card where all the bummy underdogs start winning again.

Malkoun is a very different fight from Jotko. I can't see why you give Jotko such an edge over Allen, I don't think his striking is much better than Allen's. Its a pick'em fight imo, hard to see either fighter finishing each other or really convincingly taking rounds. I see this fight as just a coin toss as to what the judges decide.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Who the fuck is Chelsea Chandler, and why should I not put my life savings on Stoli by armbar?!

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Allen lost to Jacob Malkourn(close bs decision and i betted on Allen) let that sink in, i have no fear about Jotko. he nullified a better submission specialist in Gm3. And he went three hard rounds with Strickland. Allen is chinny and not a good enough wrestler for Jotko. Jotko is as safe as it gets, hopefully this time we don't see these favorites drop the ball like dumbasses did this last saturday. i make doe with guys like these, and if he loses than i'm fking cursed. I cant stand another card where all the bummy underdogs start winning again.

No way, Sherbro. Allen won rounds 1 and 3. Malkoun lay and pray round 1 was awful, this isn't 2010 anymore. I thought for sure the judges had rewarded Malkoun for that shit when they read all 3 judges had it 29-28, pleasantly surprised they got it right and scored it for Allen.

 

[sonhow]

Jotko makes fights boring but Allen hasnt lost a boring fight so far. Jotko knocked out McCrory back in the day but besides that he doesnt deal a lot of damage.
To me styles favor Allen. Hes bit of a flake and and can get knocked out but other than that his game looks solid to me even more so than the ever boring Jotko. If Allen tries to force the grapling he will lose a clear dec though imo.

I think Jotko needs to beat him clearly to get a decision that isnt booed out of the building. People will naturally root more for Allen everywhere except maybe Poland.

 

[benebox]

I think Jotko is going to get betted way down so worth putting some cash on now no matter who you think wins.

 

[B.Goetz]

I think Jotko has the edge everywhere the fight goes, and Allen looked like garbage against the unimpressive Malkoun, IMO. He probably survives to a decision, though.

Jotko (-125) $100.00 to win $80.00

 

[jnes]

Allen lost to Jacob Malkourn(close bs decision and i betted on Allen) let that sink in, i have no fear about Jotko. he nullified a better submission specialist in Gm3. And he went three hard rounds with Strickland. Allen is chinny and not a good enough wrestler for Jotko. Jotko is as safe as it gets, hopefully this time we don't see these favorites drop the ball like dumbasses did this last saturday. i make doe with guys like these, and if he loses than i'm fking cursed. I cant stand another card where all the bummy underdogs start winning again.

Malkoun is a relentless wrestler who would really make anyone who isn't top tier look rough imo. Strickland beat up Jotko too and he had a decently close striking battle with one dimensional Anders. Maybe I'll lower my exposure on Allen down a unit or hedge with Jotko.

 

[Oblivian]

I think a lot of people have a hard time capping Allen. People were extremely high on him after the Soriano win. He's definitely a hot/cold fighter. I do have a hard time seeing Jotko win in any way besides a close decision.

 

[King-Ryan]

I just taped Ricci vs Penna it is a dog or pass for me I am going to keep a eye on the odds I am tempted to play Penna

 

[mkess101]

You guys are all diving in head first on Jotko? Have fun. I may not bet Allen but I damn sure want no part of a guy who has finished one opponent in the last DECADE. And that lone finish was SIX YEARS ago. Let that sink in: he has one finish, six years ago, in the past decade.

Can Jotko win a decision here? Absolutely. But even if his lone PTV is a solid one, it's still a LONE path to victory. Sure if he was +160 or whatever then hell yes. But as a slight favorite? No way.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Malkoun is a very different fight from Jotko. I can't see why you give Jotko such an edge over Allen, I don't think his striking is much better than Allen's. Its a pick'em fight imo, hard to see either fighter finishing each other or really convincingly taking rounds. I see this fight as just a coin toss as to what the judges decide.

i would say it's a fight where if jotko fought allen 10x he wins 7 of 10. Allen is a decent striker, but i dont think he has the finishing power to stop jotko, and if it hits the scorecards jotko wins.

No way, Sherbro. Allen won rounds 1 and 3. Malkoun lay and pray round 1 was awful, this isn't 2010 anymore. I thought for sure the judges had rewarded Malkoun for that shit when they read all 3 judges had it 29-28, pleasantly surprised they got it right and scored it for Allen.

it was still a sweaty fight, i remember being very unimpressed with Allen's performance against a guy who had less than twice as many fight. If that was Jotko, he would have beaten Jacob more decisively.

Malkoun is a relentless wrestler who would really make anyone who isn't top tier look rough imo. Strickland beat up Jotko too and he had a decently close striking battle with one dimensional Anders. Maybe I'll lower my exposure on Allen down a unit or hedge with Jotko.

Allen got demolished by strickland , at least Jotko got his licks in, at the end Jotko has outstruck more strikers, Allen needs a finish, the scorecards will favor Jotko since he is a decision machine.

You guys are all diving in head first on Jotko? Have fun. I may not bet Allen but I damn sure want no part of a guy who has finished one opponent in the last DECADE. And that lone finish was SIX YEARS ago. Let that sink in: he has one finish, six years ago, in the past decade.

Can Jotko win a decision here? Absolutely. But even if his lone PTV is a solid one, it's still a LONE path to victory. Sure if he was +160 or whatever then hell yes. But as a slight favorite? No way.

You have to consider too that Jotko is very good at winning decisions, Allen has only 4 decision wins. So more than likely Allen needs a sub or ko.

Jot hasn't been ko in four years and he fought heavier hitters than allen, so that is unlikely. Submission? Jotko survived Gm3 who has more subs than Allen, Jotko is good at defensive bjj and wrestling.

So then there is decision. i'm gonna side with the guy who always wins decision, then the guy who only has 4. Allen needs a finish here or he's losing the fight, the pressure is on him.

 

[mkess101]

i would say it's a fight where if jotko fought allen 10x he wins 7 of 10. Allen is a decent striker, but i dont think he has the finishing power to stop jotko, and if it hits the scorecards jotko wins.


it was still a sweaty fight, i remember being very unimpressed with Allen's performance against a guy who had less than twice as many fight. If that was Jotko, he would have beaten Jacob more decisively.


Allen got demolished by strickland , at least Jotko got his licks in, at the end Jotko has outstruck more strikers, Allen needs a finish, the scorecards will favor Jotko since he is a decision machine.


You have to consider too that Jotko is very good at winning decisions, Allen has only 4 decision wins. So more than likely Allen needs a sub or ko.

Jot hasn't been ko in four years and he fought heavier hitters than allen, so that is unlikely. Submission? Jotko survived Gm3 who has more subs than Allen, Jotko is good at defensive bjj and wrestling.

So then there is decision. i'm gonna side with the guy who always wins decision, then the guy who only has 4. Allen needs a finish here or he's losing the fight, the pressure is on him.

Allen hasn't dropped a decision in the UFC. Last one was 4+ years ago vs Fluffy in LFA.

I think 7/10 for Jotko is extremely generous. The more I look, the less I want to do with this fight as a bettor. @Oblivian is right. Allen is too hot and cold, and Jotko only has one PTV. There are bound to be way better spots on the card to bet.