UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan, Sat, October 1

[Captain Chesapeake]

She's stationary, hitting pads

Watch her try and kick in an actual fight, or when she tries to flurry with punches, she is incredibly bad

Yea it’s a footwork thing. She’s more of a brute. I dunno what she works on at camp but she would probably benefit more being somewhere other than black house.

at this point in her life I wouldnt think she would want to make a move with her family. She could easily be the champ if she would commit to the areas where she’s lacking

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Yea it’s a footwork thing. She’s more of a brute. I dunno what she works on at camp but she would probably benefit more being somewhere other than black house.

at this point in her life I wouldnt think she would want to make a move with her family. She could easily be the champ if she would commit to the areas where she’s lacking

i never understood why she didn't just hardcore train wrestling for past year or 3. she'd utterly annihilate everyone if she had decent consistency to take girls down.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

i never understood why she didn't just hardcore train wrestling for past year or 3. she'd utterly annihilate everyone if she had decent consistency to take girls down.

She’d rather train at black house were she’s comfortable. Some people are family oriented. The truly elite are psychos like Tom Brady who would rather play a game than be with their kids

 

[guesswhoseback]

Costa-280 NO BET
Chandler-Stolirakenko-OV 2.5-165 EZ
Lins/Grishin-OV 2.5 EZ
Allen/Jotko-OV 2.5-185 EZ
Rosnon/Silva-UN 2.5-115 EZ
Penne/Ricci-OV 2.5-310 NO BET
Olelink/Latifi-OV 1.5-130 EZ
Davis-175 EZ
Castaneda-180 EZ
Yousuff-900 NO BET
Barcelos-215 NO BET
Trinaldo/Brown-OV 2.5-150 EZ
Dern/YAN-OV no odds

 

[mkess101]

She's stationary, hitting pads

Watch her try and kick in an actual fight, or when she tries to flurry with punches, she is incredibly bad

The thing about Dern is that she wasted some early formative MMA years (generally where the huge improvements are made for fighters who end up being truly elite) because she was more interested in taking selfies at the beach than training. She was practically run out of her gym because she was lazy. Which became very evident when she showed up a ridiculous 7 lbs overweight for a fight at 115.

She was a grappling prodigy who spent a lot of her teen years (when other girls her age were chasing boys or doing normal teen shit) on the mats training. It's not exactly a surprise that would blow off training for a spell to try to "get some of that time back" or however you want to put it. But it came at the expense of really figuring out how to be an elite, well rounded fighter.

She's straight up light years ahead of everyone else in WMMA on the mat. She's that good, and equally as important...the rest are that bad. Grappling phenoms like Jacare, Maia, Roger, etc that transition to MMA don't have the edge on the ground that she does over the field because there are so many talented grapplers throughout the men's divisions. Elite wrestlers that can stuff any attempt of elite bjj players to get the fight to the mat. Guys who have trained grappling their whole lives who may not be at a Rodolfo Viera level, but who are good enough to survive his grappling and beat him elsewhere. Dern doesn't have that issue. Or more accurately, wouldn't have that issue had she rounded out her game more than she has.

It's probably too late for her to become well rounded. Going forward, she should do whatever it takes to get every fight to the mat. Including pulling guard, even early. Most girls aren't even good enough to figure out how to disengage from that in time to not be tangled up with her and end up swept (and thus, fucked). She needs to embrace what she is: the best grappler in WMMA by a mile but a sloppy striker that is just wasting time whenever she's standing.

 

[Thesnake101]

Am I crazy for thinking Wilycat has a good chance against Castaneda? Seems like two guys who both like to be on the front foot, but Castaneda was getting pushed back by Wineland and I think only really got that KO because Eddie was old and had shit reflexes.

It's hard to say given how Castañeda looked against Miles, but yeah, historically he's struggled with aggression on the feet but has been able to fall back on his wrestling in those instances.

Interested in Joaquim Silva at his current price. Sure his chin is shaky, but Ronson didn't even look UFC level coming off the suspension and I expect him to lay another egg here.

 

[King-Ryan]

I like Davis enough for a play here... been fading Slavaclause since he was on Contenders Series. Looking to make things 2-2.

 

[BigSteve]

Live in 20 with scrap, jump on boys

 

[Tebowned]

How will Zuckerberg being there effect the fights?

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

How will Zuckerberg being there affect the fights?

Most fighters will be scared just because of his mma aura

 

[lefontes]

Zuck x Dana
Zuck by sub

 

[Thesnake101]

Ended up putting Ricci on an early prelim parlay alongside Costa, Grishin and Latifi. Think she should be able to stall out Penne from top position, and Jessica being 39 also factored into my taking Tabatha.

 

[fedortips]

What do you think about Mackenzie dern goes for a takedown?

Successful takedown is 2.20 (+120) looked value but I've never watch both of them

 

[sonhow]

What do you think about Mackenzie dern goes for a takedown?

Successful takedown is 2.20 (+120) looked value but I've never watch both of them

Well depends on how much you think she is likely to win. One would think she absolutely needs at least one takedown to win but I guess a leglock or pull guard could spoil this one. But then again Yan seems at least too smart to fall into following her to guard.
I think it's a good line. She should get a trip and a finish at some point.

 

[fedortips]

Well depends on how much you think she is likely to win. One would think she absolutely needs at least one takedown to win but I guess a leglock or pull guard could spoil this one. But then again Yan seems at least too smart to fall into following her to guard.
I think it's a good line. She should get a trip and a finish at some point.

I thought so. Win or lose thanks for your smart view. I take that.

 

[The Disasters]

I'm surprised by some of the prices on this card.

Yusuff should definitely win, and he should be a big price, but -1100? I think Shainis lands clean 2-3 times out of 10 so I'll have to play a little there. Yusuff has plenty of paths to victory while Shainis has one, and about half a round to do it in, but I think the price is too extreme.

I don't think Oleinik is as washed as the odds would suggest, at least compared to Latifi who averaged 1 strike every 2 minutes over his last two fights. Oleinik will gas bad but I still don't think it'll be as bad as Latifi. Plus Oleinik will be leaning down on him in the clinch, and he's good at forcing people to carry his weight. I think he should be a slight favorite.

Not a big discrepancy but Allen looks to still be improving, and Jotko looks to be what he is. While I could see a Jotko takedown and lay and pray strategy, I think Allen is more physical, hits harder, and is quicker to grab submissions. I think he should be a small chalk.

Stoliarenko should never be favored over anyone. She has one move, and the only reason she has a win is because Syndicate loves to have their fighters takedown bjj players instead of just beating them up on the feet(Calderwood, Rose-Clark). Stockton fighters aren't known for their high fight-iq but still.

I think Costa is over-rated just based off how exciting he is. Sure he has power but he has one round of power and he's very hittable. I'm going to look at the over and Guido here since I believe they're correlated. I don't see why Guido can't wrestle-fuck him to a decision win and I don't think Costa has done near enough to be a -300 favorite, even if it's over Guido who should really retire. For any hedgers out there(not me), Costa by round 1 KO is the other obvious result.

 

[lefontes]

Terrible card for betting

 

[mkess101]

Well depends on how much you think she is likely to win. One would think she absolutely needs at least one takedown to win but I guess a leglock or pull guard could spoil this one. But then again Yan seems at least too smart to fall into following her to guard.
I think it's a good line. She should get a trip and a finish at some point.

Even though she SHOULD, Dern has so far been very hesitant to pull guard. Especially early in fights. She trusts her chin and throws hard (albeit doesn't have good footwork or set up her punches) so she'd rather settle for a standup fight if she can't get to the bodylock to drag her opponent down.

But yeah, if you get + odds on her getting ONE takedown that seems like value.

 

[Siver!]

What do you think about Mackenzie dern goes for a takedown?

Successful takedown is 2.20 (+120) looked value but I've never watch both of them

http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/7447e9f28508106a

Like I said before, Dern has completed 2 takedowns in her entire UFC career.

Depending on what criteria they're using to determine 'successful' takedowns, I'd say the odds are appalling?

They're asking her to do in 1 fight what she hasn't achieved in 9 fights?

I'm not saying it can't happen, but you really need to be sure about what constitutes a takedown - if they're relying on the UFC for those stats, I'd say it's very unlikely.

 

[sonhow]

http://ufcstats.com/fighter-details/7447e9f28508106a

Like I said before, Dern has completed 2 takedowns in her entire UFC career.

Depending on what criteria they're using to determine 'successful' takedowns, I'd say the odds are appalling?

They're asking her to do in 1 fight what she hasn't achieved in 9 fights?

I'm not saying it can't happen, but you really need to be sure about what constitutes a takedown - if they're relying on the UFC for those stats, I'd say it's very unlikely.

If the officisl ufc stats are what determines a takedown Id almost advice to stay away then. You can only guess what they accept.