UFC Vegas 62: Grasso vs. Araujo, Sat, Oct 15

UFC Vegas 62

Nicholas Maximov by decision probably

3 inch reach advantage, 3 inches taller, 3 years younger

"stand with a technically sound guard, throw a fundamental but basic jab, create an opening, explode forward for a single or double leg take down. Once he clasps his hands together, whoever he’s fighting has hit the mat. Once down, Maximov is position over submission and looks to smother his opponent with heavy top pressure. He does not attempt many submissions or even ground and pound; instead, he wants to wrestle and hold his opponents down for 15 minutes.......... Maximov is an excellent Jiu-Jitsu practitioner with a pedigreed wrestling background. He was an All-American Junior College wrestler and that experience manifests in the cage. On DWCS, Maximov shot for five takedowns, landed two of them, and controlled his opponent for an impressive 11:14. That control time allowed for him to unleash 210 significant strikes with a 58% accuracy. Maximov fights at 185 pounds, but he fought on DWCS at 195 because his opponent was 260 pounds.Maximov took down and controlled another professional fighter with 65 pounds on him. While Maximov’s wrestling and ground game are impressive, on the feet he is average. He’ll throw just enough to close the distance and shoot a takedown"
 
U1.5 for wright is somehow -125, should be double the juice imo. Prob my biggest play.
 
Assuming Rodriguez doesn't pull any last minute weight change ups does anyone else like Magny at - 130 (my site) here?

D rod having a close fight with a guy 10lbs lighter then him (I thought he lost) is not a good look. This is to fast of a turn around imo... it's not like he was rocked or anything but it's not like he got out of the Li fight unscathed either.

Also I know he didn't have to cut much to make 180lbs but he still had to diet/cut and now he has to do so all the way to 170 (I'll believe it when I see it)
 
Assuming Rodriguez doesn't pull any last minute weight change ups does anyone else like Magny at - 130 (my site) here?

D rod having a close fight with a guy 10lbs lighter then him (I thought he lost) is not a good look. This is to fast of a turn around imo... it's not like he was rocked or anything but it's not like he got out of the Li fight unscathed either.

Also I know he didn't have to cut much to make 180lbs but he still had to diet/cut and now he has to do so all the way to 170 (I'll believe it when I see it)

I need to think about D-Rod's pressure more. If you can get Magny going backwards against the cage and beat him up then that's a weakness of his. It was a gameplan best executed by Larkin and Ponzi, but I don't know if D-Rod mixes in enough leg kicks.
 
I'll be pretty surprised if Royval wild style get's him a win over someone like Askarov.He's always dangerous but he's overachieved already IMO.Askarov will take him down hold him,take him down again,maybe get to the back in a scramble.He's 1,53 but if he got the nod against KKF he would probably be 1,30 here.
 
Assuming Rodriguez doesn't pull any last minute weight change ups does anyone else like Magny at - 130 (my site) here?

D rod having a close fight with a guy 10lbs lighter then him (I thought he lost) is not a good look. This is to fast of a turn around imo... it's not like he was rocked or anything but it's not like he got out of the Li fight unscathed either.

Also I know he didn't have to cut much to make 180lbs but he still had to diet/cut and now he has to do so all the way to 170 (I'll believe it when I see it)
Max griffen is a weaker smaller D-rod, and magney got a near lucky win and knocked down in rnd 1 . Magney is not a good a boxer as Li. He's a high-level generalist, but standup wise he's average, he might be able to steal control time, but Magney begins to fade grappling wise by the late 2nd -3rd rnd. Based on what i've seen D-rod sprawl game is efficient enough in the later rnds because he puts a fast pace on his opponent that causes their gas to tank faster. I can see this being similar like the Kevin lee fight, i think Magney steals rnd one by controlling the 2nd half of the rnd on the floor, but as D-rod gains momentum in the 2nd, he slowly edges Magney out of the last two rnds. I'll give Magney credit he might steal the fight if he wins the kicking exchange and stays long, but I think D-rod is a good style matchup, as Magney tends to lose to guys who exceptional in one area and i think Rod is good at boxing by a decent margin to point Magney.
 
A few prop bets i'd like to discuss

Dusko by round 1 stoppage-mismatch fight imo- hedge with Rnd 2 stoppage as a second bet but smaller.
Dusko Submission - Wright showed very basic grappling in his last fight, Dusko has solid grappling and a rnc win.(2017) against Poppeck. Worth a stab at 800+ or higher.
Dusko ko 1- Wright is chinney and Dusko once sparked Michel Parreira.

Henry decision: Accuncao is similar to Raoni in style.
Taira Sub - Cj got subbed before via RNC in 2018, and that is Taira's main submission and his strength which is back takes.
D-rod ko- Max* scored a knockdown on Neil and D-rod and Max have a similar style being boxing heavy.


Menifield rnd 1 stoppage- i laid out why earlier due to misha getting historically stopped by power punchers, and Menifield has several rnd 1 kos.

Anyone care to debate which props have a higher chance at hitting?

Assuming they all win in the first place.
 
A few prop bets i'd like to discuss

Dusko by round 1 stoppage-mismatch fight imo- hedge with Rnd 2 stoppage as a second bet but smaller.
Dusko Submission - Wright showed very basic grappling in his last fight, Dusko has solid grappling and a rnc win.(2017) against Poppeck. Worth a stab at 800+ or higher.
Dusko ko 1- Wright is chinney and Dusko once sparked Michel Parreira.

Henry decision: Accuncao is similar to Raoni in style.
Taira Sub - Cj got subbed before via RNC in 2018, and that is Taira's main submission and his strength which is back takes.
D-rod ko- Max* scored a knockdown on Neil and D-rod and Max have a similar style being boxing heavy.


Menifield rnd 1 stoppage- i laid out why earlier due to misha getting historically stopped by power punchers, and Menifield has several rnd 1 kos.

Anyone care to debate which props have a higher chance at hitting?

Assuming they all win in the first place.

I'm possibly going to look at what the odds are for just the fight to end in round one with Dusko Vs Wright. Dusko is more talented than Wright but he has awful defence and Wright is pretty quick and hits hard. It'll turn into chaos which either guy could get sparked in imo. Might be tempted by Wright's 1st round finish line.
 
Taira Sub - Cj got subbed before via RNC in 2018, and that is Taira's main submission and his strength which is back takes.
Very possible, but against Candelario when the sub didn't come right away he postured up from back control and delivered great GnP that was close to stopping the fight in the second and again at the end of the third. He can win by any outcome, so I took ML with the option to bet -3.5 points handicap later.
 
I need to think about D-Rod's pressure more. If you can get Magny going backwards against the cage and beat him up then that's a weakness of his. It was a gameplan best executed by Larkin and Ponzi, but I don't know if D-Rod mixes in enough leg kicks.

Max griffen is a weaker smaller D-rod, and magney got a near lucky win and knocked down in rnd 1 . Magney is not a good a boxer as Li. He's a high-level generalist, but standup wise he's average, he might be able to steal control time, but Magney begins to fade grappling wise by the late 2nd -3rd rnd. Based on what i've seen D-rod sprawl game is efficient enough in the later rnds because he puts a fast pace on his opponent that causes their gas to tank faster. I can see this being similar like the Kevin lee fight, i think Magney steals rnd one by controlling the 2nd half of the rnd on the floor, but as D-rod gains momentum in the 2nd, he slowly edges Magney out of the last two rnds. I'll give Magney credit he might steal the fight if he wins the kicking exchange and stays long, but I think D-rod is a good style matchup, as Magney tends to lose to guys who exceptional in one area and i think Rod is good at boxing by a decent margin to point Magney.

Yeah you guys are right thanks for reminding me I don't want to put my money on Neil Magny.
 
Dusko ko 1- Wright is chinney and Dusko once sparked Michel Parreira.
I like this one best. Maybe split with u1.5 if you think Wright is dangerous. Dusko doesn't have bad defence, but it's very dependent upon head movement rather than blocking.
 
Assuming Rodriguez doesn't pull any last minute weight change ups does anyone else like Magny at - 130 (my site) here?

D rod having a close fight with a guy 10lbs lighter then him (I thought he lost) is not a good look. This is to fast of a turn around imo... it's not like he was rocked or anything but it's not like he got out of the Li fight unscathed either.

Also I know he didn't have to cut much to make 180lbs but he still had to diet/cut and now he has to do so all the way to 170 (I'll believe it when I see it)

10lbs lighter is a meme. Drod is a flabby WW and Li is shredded. Wouldn't be surprised if Li weighed more than drod on fight night and I don't think it's even a question that Li is physically stronger
 
I'm possibly going to look at what the odds are for just the fight to end in round one with Dusko Vs Wright. Dusko is more talented than Wright but he has awful defence and Wright is pretty quick and hits hard. It'll turn into chaos which either guy could get sparked in imo. Might be tempted by Wright's 1st round finish line.
Wright isn't that great with the hands, Dusko went 3 with Rodriguez, koed by Soriano and Chidi who are heavy handed fighters, I don't think Wright has that kind of power or form, Dusko is a better grappler too . He's been matched with killers in all his ufc fights , when he isn't matched with higher level he soundly beats these lower tier guys like Pitolo. i think wright is more in that level, other than kicks i don't think he is slick enough to catch Dusko.

Very possible, but against Candelario when the sub didn't come right away he postured up from back control and delivered great GnP that was close to stopping the fight in the second and again at the end of the third. He can win by any outcome, so I took ML with the option to bet -3.5 points handicap later.
Gd point, the sub prop will have to be 400+ for me to try it.

I like this one best. Maybe split with u1.5 if you think Wright is dangerous. Dusko doesn't have bad defence, but it's very dependent upon head movement rather than blocking.
I don't think he has the hands to be too dangerous, i see him like a very weak version of Wonderboy. He also makes lots of rookie mistakes like circling into the power hand, and turtles up and pushes whenever pressured close range. Dusko likely takes him down and gnps him or blitz him in the 2nd.

I was impressed with his ability to slip some of Rodriguez's punches and he was the one pressuring mostly backing him up into the cage. Just think how Armen face got messed up by Rodriguez and Chidi getting koed. Dusko losing a passive decision and not letting Rodriguez demolish him, plus also landing sick body shots in rnd 3, i think he likely styles on Wright, smashes body punches and then koes him early. I feel confident because i don't think Wright could have a performance like that against Rodriguez. I think Dusko wins 9 of 10 times.
 
surprised u guys are so into drod on a short turn around. he said he got rocked so much that he blacked out several times from li's punches during the fight. magny isn't a big hitter by any means but i wouldn't want to back a fighter under that scenario.
 
surprised u guys are so into drod on a short turn around. he said he got rocked so much that he blacked out several times from li's punches during the fight. magny isn't a big hitter by any means but i wouldn't want to back a fighter under that scenario.
The Dalby loss is enough to deter me from picking D-Rod against Magny. Neil can look vulnerable in spots but unless you're elite, he always finds a way back to make things a grinding affair. Can't trust Rodriguez especially after he turned out a sparring match against Li recently.
 
The Dalby loss is enough to deter me from picking D-Rod against Magny. Neil can look vulnerable in spots but unless you're elite, he always finds a way back to make things a grinding affair. Can't trust Rodriguez especially after he turned out a sparring match against Li recently.
Screenshot 2022-10-05 165150.png

But did he?

surprised u guys are so into drod on a short turn around. he said he got rocked so much that he blacked out several times from li's punches during the fight. magny isn't a big hitter by any means but i wouldn't want to back a fighter under that scenario.
Magney makes a bad favorite most of the time, he is a terrible hammer. His last 5 wins were all decisions. I don't think D-rod has it in the bag, but i like him at evens for a big juicy parlay. i think its a 55/45, but i like some of the edge he has on Magney. A split decision with Li is better than a split decision with Max. Fact is Magney is a point fighter. relies on judges scorecards, based on what we saw last, D-rod is more favorable to scorecards because of his aggressive style. and his crisp jab is enough to sway the judges if he constantly lands it. I need something on tape that you can point to that Magney can use against D-rod, how do you see magney beating D-rod?

Does he out box him? He was getting out box by Max . out kick him maybe? Don't think likely as D-rod has a higher leg kick accuracy and throws more leg kicks by a lot. Neil wins his fight by tying guys up in the clinch, using his superior size, clinch striking and gnp is how he beat Li. its how he beat Geoff, by threatening the takedown and taking him off his game. But unlike Geoff i don't think Rod is uncomfortable when grappling. He's got 4 sub wins and 1 in the ufc.
 
Jackson/Rodriguez-UN 1.5-220 NO bet
Vergara/Taira-OV 2.5-200 No bet
Rodriguez/Hughes-OV 2.5-310 No bet
Assuncao/Henry-OV 2.5-175 EZ
Malkoun/Maximov-OV 2.5-260 No bet
Davis/Martinez-OV 2.5-175 EZ
Cirkunov/Meinfield-UN 1.5-105 EZ
Rodriguez/Magny-OV 2.5-220 No bet
Wright/Todorich-UN No odds yet
Royval/Askraov-OV 2.5-135 EZ
Swanson/Martinez-OV 2.5-175 EZ
Arajuao/Grasso-OV 4.5-260 NO bet

I had a slight proofit last event
 
View attachment 946815

But did he?


Magney makes a bad favorite most of the time, he is a terrible hammer. His last 5 wins were all decisions. I don't think D-rod has it in the bag, but i like him at evens for a big juicy parlay. i think its a 55/45, but i like some of the edge he has on Magney. A split decision with Li is better than a split decision with Max. Fact is Magney is a point fighter. relies on judges scorecards, based on what we saw last, D-rod is more favorable to scorecards because of his aggressive style. and his crisp jab is enough to sway the judges if he constantly lands it. I need something on tape that you can point to that Magney can use against D-rod, how do you see magney beating D-rod?

Does he out box him? He was getting out box by Max . out kick him maybe? Don't think likely as D-rod has a higher leg kick accuracy and throws more leg kicks by a lot. Neil wins his fight by tying guys up in the clinch, using his superior size, clinch striking and gnp is how he beat Li. its how he beat Geoff, by threatening the takedown and taking him off his game. But unlike Geoff i don't think Rod is uncomfortable when grappling. He's got 4 sub wins and 1 in the ufc.

It's not sub wins that's the issue. It's Magny's way of neutralizing any offense of his opponent by backing them against the cage and tying them up. If you don't think Magny is capable of doing that here, by all means bet D Rod. But Magny has a way of shutting down all offense in fights (his own included). And when it's two guys tied up on the cage for the majority of a round, the guy who's back is to the cage is gonna lose the round.
 
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