UFC Vegas 79: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot - official bets

Fiziev (-140) $43.83 to win $31.31
Mohammed Usman (-136) $34.00 to win $25.00
Mizuki Inoue (-235) $37.60 to win $16.00
Mizuki-Goldy fight does not go to split decision (-400) $40.00 to win $10.00
 
B.Goetz said:
Fiziev (-140) $43.83 to win $31.31
Mohammed Usman (-136) $34.00 to win $25.00
Mizuki Inoue (-235) $37.60 to win $16.00
Mizuki-Goldy fight does not go to split decision (-400) $40.00 to win $10.00
Click to expand...
Hey man, absolutely not criticizing you at all and I respect that you post all your plays. Just trying to give some solid advice. Be careful with the big - odds plays (Like -300 and above). I noticed you play them fairly often. Let’s say -400 for example. You need to hit those 4 out of 5 times just to break even. Some -400ish lines do have value, but when they do it’s usually not by too much. You gotta be very selective with them

Again, not trying to criticize you or anything like that. Just trying to possibly help you avoid some mistakes I’ve made in the past. Good luck and I hope you hit all your plays
 
going for 2nd winning event in a row i did place a shit ton of no chance parlays will post if any hits

Jourdain-140 for 250
Johns+160 for 250
battle/fletcher-ov 2,5 even for 50
usman/collier-ov 2.5 -120 for 50
means/fiahlo-ov 1.5-145 for 50
fiziev-150 for 250
malkoun/brundage-ov 2.5-115 for 50
 
My biggest action will be on PrizePicks. It's hard to figure out exactly the risk/payout because I have plays that are matched up with other sports props and some DWCS props that already cashed, and I don't want to back out the math. I think I have roughly $350 or so in play and max profit is around $800.

My plays are:
Fisiev under 90.5 sig strikes (2nd biggest play)
Mitchell under 84.5 fantasy score (biggest play by far)
Marina over 70.5 sig strikes (3rd biggest play)
Vidal over 57.5 sig strikes (small)
Malkoun over 3.5 TD's (small)

I'm also gonna drive down to the FanDuel sportsbook to watch the fights, so gonna make some plays when I get there. I think before the card I'll make some small parlays of props I like (and a play a couple straight), and if they die I'll likely add in plays during the card. Pre card, these are what I plan to play (payouts assuming odds don't change between now and then).

Vidal dec+Inoue dec+Collier KO--$10 to win $174.80
Malkoun KO+Fialho KO rd 1+Johns dec--$10 to win $662.40
Jourdain dec+Battle dec+Rodriguez dec--$20 to win $327.46
Rodriguez dec+Ige Dec+Gamrot ML--$20 to win $396.23
Jourdain dec+Battle dec+Rodriguez dec+Ige dec+Gamrot dec--$20 to win $6859.67
Vidal dec+Inoue dec+Collier KO+Jourdain dec+Battle dec+Rodriguez dec+Ige dec+Gamrot/Fisiev goes distance--$10 to win $33,413.73
(This last one is assuming they don't have a cap on payouts that this one exceeds. Caesars in IL caps payouts at $25k, so if FanDuel does I'll have to remove one fight from that parlay).
Rodriguez dec+Gamrot/Fisiev goes distance $30 to win $63.42

Straight I'm going to play:
Ige ML $30 to win $51.60
Ige dec $10 to win $45

I'm sure I'll add plays as parlays die, but maybe they'll mostly stay live and I won't need to!

Mostly it's the PrizePicks that I need. I think given their scoring system, Mitchell's fantasy score line is WAY off. He could do to Ige exactly what he did to Barboza and not come close to covering this total, which is why I'm so big on the under.
 
guesswhoseback said:
going for 2nd winning event in a row i did place a shit ton of no chance parlays will post if any hits

Jourdain-140 for 250
Johns+160 for 250
battle/fletcher-ov 2,5 even for 50
usman/collier-ov 2.5 -120 for 50
means/fiahlo-ov 1.5-145 for 50
fiziev-150 for 250
malkoun/brundage-ov 2.5-115 for 50
Click to expand...


Profit don't wanna do the math but about 250$ I also hit a no chance parlay
 
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