UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia

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Whatever wrestling game Brunson brings I can't see him sustain it for 5 rounds. I'm leaning Whittaker but haven't studied Brunson yet tho

Any odds up for this?

Yeah that's where I really favor Whittaker is the cardio.

The only times we've seen Brunson go late in the fight he's looked exhausted.


He lost a 3 round split versus grove.
He was dead vs leben albeit short notice.
Gassed bad versus yoel.
 
Goodfella confirmed Nick K does scout this place. I used to be all for discussion but with that revelation i think we should hold off.

Sorry man still not buying it. There are so many posters you would need to really watch specific posters closely over a long period of time to get a read. What exactly did GF say that confirmed this?

Secondly, Nick is primarily concerned with the betting public. He needs to set the line based on how the public will bet and subsequently move the line. I don't think the handful of people that frequent this board move each line very much. Yeah some of the high rollers make occasional really big bets but overall we are just a drop in the bucket.

I still maintain there is more value in discussing fights than not.

My main play for this card is going to be Chris Camozzi ML. Kelly was very fortunate (I won't say lucky) to get his come from behind win vs. Shoeface. I have been backing Camozzi for his last few fights and he has delivered despite getting pwned vs. Leites.
 
Am on Whittaker myself, don't get me wrong brunson's on a total tear and has the momentum but I can't trust that guy especially after Yoel in r3.

Brunson more recent match ups have been ideal for him, he was always going to excel and look good against them and win.

Whittaker will be his brick wall imo, someone who can box better with good technique and fight iq, not to mention is far younger and has shown reliable cardio, this is a 25 minute fight after all.

I like brunson under 1.5 or r1, r2 ko and if whittaker survives by end of r2 think he takes over the fight.
 
Yao Zhikui vs Jenel Lausa

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Zhikui was a contestant on The Ultimate Fighter: China, winning his quarter final bout via KO before dropping the semi final in a decision to Yang Jianping. He has a background in Shauijiao (Chinese Wrestling) and currently trains out of China Top Team, having previously worked with the Blackzillians.

1-2 in his UFC career so far Zhikui will be looking to improve upon that, especially after his unfortunate injury loss in his last fight against Colombian powerhouse Freddy Serrano. Zhikui is a fairly big Flyweight who works in bursts of explosive flurries on the feet, despite having much technique behind his strikes he does pack some power and uses them as more of a means of getting his opponent against the cage to work takedowns. Zhikui lost his UFC debut against Royston Wee in a very controversial decision in which he seemed to win pretty clearly. He put together flurries and managed to repeatedly take Wee down where he worked ground and pound and bloodied him up. You could argue Karma done Zhikui a favour in his next fight where he faced Nolan Tickman; Tickham utilised a stick and move strategy very well, landing the cleaner shots, back peddling and repeating. However the judges must have favoured Zhikui's aggression over the cleaner strikes and he managed to steal a decision. In his last fight he opened up with some urgency in the opening round before Serrano secured a big takedown in which the Chinese fighter damaged his arm upon landing before eating a few strikes before the fight was stopped; he has been out since (a year)

Filipino Jenel Lausa will be making his UFC debut after accumulating a 6-2 record and winning the PXC Flyweight title along the way. Lausa trains out of Team Capanay in the Philippines and has professional Boxing experience boasting a 6-0 record.

Lausa's Boxing experience is evident in his fights, he puts combinations together well, has fast hands and a lovely lead left hook. His takedown defence has developed well over his fights, he also has a nice guillotine he threatens with when opponents try takedowns against the cage, Lausa has a guillotine victory over Dean Bermudez, after landing a headkick and some heavy punches he grabbed Bermudez into a tight takedown and secured the win. With a background in Boxing, Muay Thai and Wushu it's safe to say that Lausa is the better stand up fighter in this bout but Zhikui has faced the better opposition and the better offensive wrestling so it's a very hard fight to predict. At some point in the fight I can definitely see Zhikui securing a takedown, the key will be whether Lausa can get back to his feet or threaten with a submission. Lausa's footwork and Boxing experience should lead to him implementing a similar gameplan to Ticman, landing clean strikes and then keeping his distance. Lausa also has the experience of going 5 rounds against Pitpitunge in a fight where he was constantly fighting off takedowns and moving well on the feet landing strikes.

This is one of the closest fights on the card and I think it will definitely go the distance, I'm going to go with Lausa to win a very close and hard fought decision, possibly a split.
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Sorry man still not buying it. There are so many posters you would need to really watch specific posters closely over a long period of time to get a read. What exactly did GF say that confirmed this?

Secondly, Nick is primarily concerned with the betting public. He needs to set the line based on how the public will bet and subsequently move the line. I don't think the handful of people that frequent this board move each line very much. Yeah some of the high rollers make occasional really big bets but overall we are just a drop in the bucket.

I still maintain there is more value in discussing fights than not.

I come from a poker background so I might be more inclined not to give away free info to the opponent then most, and I won't argue anymore after this, but I'd like to post a story about how I learned to shut the fuck up and not teach the opponents how to play.

Years back I was a mid stakes pro, Sweden has tax laws that made Pokerstars less then viable for me before they moved to Malta for a EU-licence, but I still followed the monthly mid stakes low content topic just to keep up with what happened since a few regs on stars played the Eurosites too. Also I just read anything poker related really, a lot like a bunch of you guys probably fiend any MMA-reading you can find.

Anyway, one day some dude commented on how fucking awful some other reg was, I think he posted some suck out and proceeded to explain why this guy sucked and how awful it was to lose a hand to him. No harm, just blowing off steam. Then some other reg decided to give his two cents on the guy and after a while a handful of decent regs had listed a long ass list of stuff this crap reg did wrong. Nothing really happened except the occasional joke about how this guy fucked up and some laughs, it was actually something that people bonded over. "At least I'm not doing that shit, I'm not retarded" kind of deal.

However, those posts got less and less frequent until one day a little bit less then a year later as I remember it, although this was many years ago, "the retard" came into the thread and posted a couple of pictures of his graphs. Turns out that he had googled himself, found the thread and and after losing ~5-10k or so per month over half a year or whatever he just read up on what people thought he did wrong, fixed all those leaks and suddenly he was making a few k's each month. I think he was up about 100k or something like that since he started reading about himself. Sucks to be the assholes who couldn't shut up and therefor costed themselves and other regs maybe half a million or so of value over a year by turning a fish that apparently had a bunch of money to throw away into a winning poker player.

Obviously I decided to google myself, and obviously a bunch of asshats has written at length about how badly I sucked in some spots and suddenly I made tons and tons of money out of slowplaying the river since I, according to the internet, never in my life had check a bad hand out of position on the river. Probably the biggest single improvement to my poker winrate ever.

Since then I tend to shut up about bets I make until I've actually had a chance to make them, for the same reasons I don't discuss poker theory at a poker table.
 
I pray Camozzi is juiced. Will take Kelly decision at anything close to +5xx
 
I come from a poker background so I might be more inclined not to give away free info to the opponent then most, and I won't argue anymore after this, but I'd like to post a story about how I learned to shut the fuck up and not teach the opponents how to play.

Years back I was a mid stakes pro, Sweden has tax laws that made Pokerstars less then viable for me before they moved to Malta for a EU-licence, but I still followed the monthly mid stakes low content topic just to keep up with what happened since a few regs on stars played the Eurosites too. Also I just read anything poker related really, a lot like a bunch of you guys probably fiend any MMA-reading you can find.

Anyway, one day some dude commented on how fucking awful some other reg was, I think he posted some suck out and proceeded to explain why this guy sucked and how awful it was to lose a hand to him. No harm, just blowing off steam. Then some other reg decided to give his two cents on the guy and after a while a handful of decent regs had listed a long ass list of stuff this crap reg did wrong. Nothing really happened except the occasional joke about how this guy fucked up and some laughs, it was actually something that people bonded over. "At least I'm not doing that shit, I'm not retarded" kind of deal.

However, those posts got less and less frequent until one day a little bit less then a year later as I remember it, although this was many years ago, "the retard" came into the thread and posted a couple of pictures of his graphs. Turns out that he had googled himself, found the thread and and after losing ~5-10k or so per month over half a year or whatever he just read up on what people thought he did wrong, fixed all those leaks and suddenly he was making a few k's each month. I think he was up about 100k or something like that since he started reading about himself. Sucks to be the assholes who couldn't shut up and therefor costed themselves and other regs maybe half a million or so of value over a year by turning a fish that apparently had a bunch of money to throw away into a winning poker player.

Obviously I decided to google myself, and obviously a bunch of asshats has written at length about how badly I sucked in some spots and suddenly I made tons and tons of money out of slowplaying the river since I, according to the internet, never in my life had check a bad hand out of position on the river. Probably the biggest single improvement to my poker winrate ever.

Since then I tend to shut up about bets I make until I've actually had a chance to make them, for the same reasons I don't discuss poker theory at a poker table.

Liked your story bro! Btw, you are using "then" when it should be "than" not being a dick I would've liked if someone told me if I did that
 
Yeah that's where I really favor Whittaker is the cardio.

The only times we've seen Brunson go late in the fight he's looked exhausted.


He lost a 3 round split versus grove.
He was dead vs leben albeit short notice.
Gassed bad versus yoel.

not disagreeing with anything here, but wanted to point out that the grove and leben fights seem like ancient history, especially grove. but maybe you're onto something re: cardio. maybe whittaker rd3/4/5 and/or whittaker live make sense.
 
Since then I tend to shut up about bets I make until I've actually had a chance to make them, for the same reasons I don't discuss poker theory at a poker table.

Hi Slohog, I can appreciate your story as I have a poker background as well. Fish are important for the poker eco-system as without them you have strong players competing against each other and potentially just losing to the rake over time.

I don't think the moral of your story translates to Nick et. al setting the lines for MMA. The oddsmakers set the line in such a way to get somewhat equal action on both sides and then make money on the juice. The oddsmakers are not in a zero sum competition with the Sherdog board.

This is a public forum with the sole purpose of discussing bets on MMA. I think it is silly for people to come on and tell others not to talk about the fights or bets etc. If you or any other individual doesn't want to share their input then feel free to "opt-out".
 
Ham vs Taylor

Probably the 2 smallest sized strawweights in the division, we know ham prefers to strike and use her kickboxing mixed up with her boxing, he sets a good pace and her cardio is good for 3 rounds. But she is lacking in the power side of her striking game (no kos yet) and this does not make her look good in the judges eyes as seen in her last fight against bec.

Taylor is an interesting fighter, nicknamed dynamite for very obvious reasons but we did not see this in her ufc debut at all, I believe it was more to do with the fact she took the fight only to get under the ufc banner, 10 days is quite short notice for any opponent. Otherwise Taylor has shown once she gets within range lots of punches in bunches on opponents and overwhelming them also, she is also capable of changing levels with solid take downs and gnp.

Her HL reel here:


I like Taylors power and her ability to wrestle and land the more powerful punches to be the deciding factor here. If Ham keeps her on the end of her jabs and stuffs her take downs she will find more success here but not seeing it for 15 minutes.

My Pick is :

Taylor su but depending on prop lines- I like her via decision, safest pick the overs (ham total decision machine 7 decisions in last 8 fights)
 
I feel there's 4 likely outcomes to that fight

Either guy can KO the other

Either guy can win a DEC

Brunson will imo most likely hurt Whittaker at one point and storm forward, however I like the toughness of Whittaker and more so his head movement and ability to counter punch. I see him catching Brunson as Brunson storms forward for the finish. I also see Whittaker surviving and winning a DEC or TKO in the later rounds. Now it is possible that Brunson batters Whittaker for the majority of 25min and takes a DEC but I see that as less likely than Whittaker taking the DEC, despite Brunson having the wrestling edge. Whittaker should definitely have the cardio advantage and be quicker with his movement. I like how frantically he tries to get off the cage or defend a possible TD. However I can see myself picking either guy here if underdog, Brunson would have to be a lot bigger underdog for me to feel good about it than Whittaker tho. The fight takes place in Australia which is a positive for Whittaker with the crowd behind him cheering each shot he lands and can quite possibly pursuade the judges.
 
Wonder what the line for goes the distance in that main event will be
 
Fuck betsafe not using them anymore , such a piss take to withdraw money and shit limits
 
Brunson was one round away from beating romero he was two up. Not got a lean yet just putting it out there. Anyone recall if whittaker's ever had to defend any td's? Brunson is going to be a lot bigger and if he wrestles like he did romero and larkin i see this being a tough fight for whittaker. Brunson done his camp at jw so you would think he surely comes to wrestle. I dont like his chances if he decides to bang but surely not.
 
Brunson was one round away from beating romero he was two up. Not got a lean yet just putting it out there. Anyone recall if whittaker's ever had to defend any td's? Brunson is going to be a lot bigger and if he wrestles like he did romero and larkin i see this being a tough fight for whittaker. Brunson done his camp at jw so you would think he surely comes to wrestle. I dont like his chances if he decides to bang but surely not.

Off the top of my head he defended a bunch against colton smith at WW.

Edit: He's been taken down twice out of about 30 attempts. Court Mcgee and brad scott.
 
Off the top of my head he defended a bunch against colton smith at WW.

If colton is the best person we have to go off this is a tough one! If larkin can ground romero and larkin tho im sure he can ground a small mw in whittaker.
 
Hi Slohog, I can appreciate your story as I have a poker background as well. Fish are important for the poker eco-system as without them you have strong players competing against each other and potentially just losing to the rake over time.

I don't think the moral of your story translates to Nick et. al setting the lines for MMA. The oddsmakers set the line in such a way to get somewhat equal action on both sides and then make money on the juice. The oddsmakers are not in a zero sum competition with the Sherdog board.

This is a public forum with the sole purpose of discussing bets on MMA. I think it is silly for people to come on and tell others not to talk about the fights or bets etc. If you or any other individual doesn't want to share their input then feel free to "opt-out".

Yea, already done so. I'm fairly sure no one really has noticed but I haven't posted any breakdowns or anything like that in a long time and while I was never great poster or anything I did try to bring my two cents on whatever Swedish fighters I knew a thing or two about, translating interviews and such.

Since it's confirmed that the odds makers take this forum into consideration before setting lines I just feel that any free information the opponent gets is harmful to me.

But like I've said, I've said my peace and I'm out.
 
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