Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Ukram, Nov 21, 2016.
Hit Brunson round 1 +450
Also hit Vera NSC but at the much worse but still valuable price of -130
noke rd3 +1400, too
haha yep me too forgot to mention that one
can't see vid from work, better be something that expresses how boss i am
Just kanye west. You're not missing shit homie!!
Apologies guys I haven't contributed much to thread but I've been really busy this week. Nevertheless I did do some breakdowns for you.
For those interested, I did brief previews/dissections of most of the fights on UFC FN 101
I'll finish up and give the rest of them tomorrow but so far I have:
Robert Whittaker vs. Derek Brunson
Adrew Holbrook vs. Jake Matthews
Omari Akhmedov vs. Kyle Noke
Seo Hee Ham vs. Danielle Taylor
Chris Camozzi vs. Dan Kelly
Ben Nguyen vs. Geane Herrera
Damien Brown vs. Jon Tuck
Hope you enjoy them and if anyone has any questions or specific breakdown requesst let me know!
Aussie! Aussie! Aussie!
Robert Whittaker vs. Derek Brunson
As incredible as it is Whittaker is still only 25 years old. The winner of the inaugural European version of the reality series — TUF: The Smashes — Whitaker carved his way through the field of the Welterweights en route to becoming the tournament champion. Whitaker carried his TUF success into the UFC proper and after a recent move to 185 the Aussie is in the best form of his career. Speaking of peak form, the Aussie's opposition, Derek Brunson has become an absolute wrecking machine of late. Indeed, once considered a basic wrestle-boxer with great TDs and a smothering top game, DB has since transformed himself into something of a mini version of "Rumble" Johnson. This commentary evinced by his last four fights which has seen his opponent starched within the first frame.
Both fighters are absolutely rolling right now with each having won his last five outings. Both men are competent wherever the fight takes place though each is going to have their own idea of where they want it contested. You need to be a fight expert or a compass to know Whittaker would like to keep it vertical and at a distance whilst Brunson prefer it go horizontally. A black belt in Karate, Whittaker is a phenomenal striker but it's his blackbelt in Hapkido that makes him the formidable force that he is. Specifically this is because Hapkido is essentially a hybrid of Taekwondo and Judo, the latter of which bolsters the Aussie's TDD thus enabling him to keep the fight upright. Meanwhile, Brunson is a Division II All-American wrestler whose work he has put in with Mike Winklejohn at Jackson-Wink has allowed his kickboxing game to evolve exponentially. Using his wrestling in reverse, Brunson can stay on his feet and launch those nuclear bombs we refer to as punches. Indeed, that day to wrestling pedigree provides Brunson a safety valve knowing that he always has that takedown in his back pocket should things get hairy.
While Whittaker is the superior striker with excellent takedown defense, I don't believe that he has fought anybody near the caliber of wrestler of a Derek Brunson. He certainly hasn't faced anyone with the wrestling chops AND raw speed, size and athleticism the American possesses. It's this explosiveness combined with the wrestling capacity that IMHO Will be the X factor in this fight. The last wrestle boxer Whitaker faced was Court McGee and he lost by decision. While Whitaker has undoubtedly improved since then so has Brunson. Moreover, going from a Court McGee to a Derek Brunson is the equivalent of effectively parallel parking a Honda Civic and successfully landing a Boeing 747 jumbo jet.
Summarily, Whittaker's best chance of winning this fight is coming out and catching Brunson cold with a tight counter hook of his. DB does have a tendency to leave his chin in the air when striking and Whitaker has sniper-esque precision with his return fire. However, if Whitaker is unable to find Brunson's chin early, I believe that means he's going to be continuously trying to get back to his feet while intermittently getting pummeled into the mat. Ultimately, I believe that DB will frustrate Whitaker with his speed and strength interspersed with multiple TDA's. Additionally, I anticipate the American utilizing a lot of clinch work to force this into a telephone booth type of fight. Working in tight solves two important problems: First it eliminates Whittaker's ability to use his superior striking and kick heavy attack in the space he needs while simultaneously causing the Aussie's arms to become increasingly more heavy as the minutes tick by. All that time slain in the clinch with a bigger stronger man will result in Whitakers arms filling up with blood and lactic acid which in turn main swallower punches from my fatigue and fighter.
Quite simply Brunson simply has more avenues to victory than does Whitaker and I like him for a moderate sized bet at -140.
Jake Matthews vs. Andrew Holbrook
A pair of 155 pound grappling specialists will meet in the co-main event next, as Australian Jake Matthews aims to bounce back from a terrible performance against Kevin Lee when taking on American submission ace Andrew Holbrook. Matthews is a quick super strong, athletic youngster who has accumulated a very respectable 4-2 overall record inside the Octagon after coming off the TUF Nations : Australia vs. Canada season. A Brown Belt in Brazilian jujitsu, Matthews is talented beyond his years and has all of the raw natural abilities needed to be a true force in the division. Strong as an Ox, Jakes innate ability coupled with his ever-expanding technical prowess have all the earmarks of an elite fighter likely to stick around the UFC for a very long time.
Meanwhile Holbrook is an aggressive and voluminous striker who puts on a lot of pressure from bell-to-bell. Unfortunately, given his feather fisted power — or lack thereof — he struggles against better grapplers. While he is a serviceable striker, the Canadian understands his weakness on the feet so he tries to turn every match into a grappling contest and war of attrition. This has worked out exceptionally well for Holbrook given the fact that he has submitted 9 opponents in his 11 career victories.
Stylistically, this is a very favorable matchup for the hometown kid as Matthews will have a marked advantage in the striking department and his solid TDD will allow him to dictate where the fight takes place. What's more, Matthews has the aptitude to grapple with Holbrook if he so chooses, though he will have to mind his P's and Q's and not leave any limbs out there to get snatched up. For all intents and purposes Holbrooks only way to win this fight IMO is via a Matthews error. There's no way that I'm going to bet on a fighter who requires the assistance of his opponent making a mistake in order to win the fight.
The UFC knows they have something special in Matthews and that he is a terrible stylistic matchup for Holbrook. It's quite evident that the UFC brass have given the hometown favorite a chance to get back on the winning track. Holbrook himself is coming off a nasty first-round knockout loss, so I expect to see him a bit cautious which will play into the hands of Matthews. As is, "The Celtic Kid" will make an excellent parlay piece as I cap him around -425
Kyle Noke vs. Omari Akhmedov
In a matchup of middling welterweights, Australia’s Kyle Noke squares off with Russian bruiser Omari Akhmedov. A jack-of all-trades's and master-of-none, Noke is a grizzled veteran of the sport who at this point can unquestionably be considered a journeyman fighter in the twilight of his career. Talented as he is, Noke's entire mixed martial arts career has been a consistent series of peaks and valleys. That said. I believe that at 36 years old he has finally plateaued as a fighter. In the other corner will be the ultra aggressive 29-year-old Akhmedov who holds a International Master of Sports in Combat Sambo. There isn't much nuance to the Russians game as it consists primarily of winging heavy leather at his foe until he finds their chin and then fading precipitously if he doesn't. Unfortunately, while he has concussive power in his hands, Akhmedov simply doesn't set up his striking well at all and his lack of technique enables his opponents to counter him. Additionally, his balls-to-the-wall style leaves him thoroughly exhausted by the middle point of the bout.
Basically, if Noke can avoid the big power we see from Akhmedov early in the first five minutes, I believe that Noke's more technical striking and salty dog veteran savvy will present him with ability to turn the tide should things begin rocky. Kyle is a serviceable boxer but it is his kicks to the body that accumulate the most damage. Indeed, it is this bodywork which the hometown hero will use to further deplete the gas tank of an already cardio challenged opponent.
At +165 I believe Noke to be one of the better dog bets on the card and a his third round prop is also a viable option.
Dan Kelly vs. Chris Camozzi
Average Middleweights face off in the nights leading candidate for most aesthetically displeasing fight of the night. The principles are Australian Olympic Judoka Dan Kelly and 185 pound keeper of the gate Chris Camozzi. The Aussie is at his most effective when he is able to shrink the gap to enforce his opponent into a clinch battle where he aims to use his judo credentials to find trip takedowns or toss them on their heads. Meanwhile, Camozzi couldn't be any different if he wanted, as the American is a tall and rangy striker who uses distance and volume striking to pick up victories. While he is not the most athletic guy in the world, Camozzi is as game a fighter as they come and his educated jab is hard for his opponents to navigate. In addition, the American has very good takedown defense and the ability to spring back to his feet immediately if taken down are staples of his style. At 39 years old and — and an almost one dimensional skill set — I shouldn't even be considering a bet on Kelly. However, the way he was able to put the screws to Brazilian jujitsu juggernaut and blue chip prospect Antonio Carlos Junior have led to me second-guessing myself. Kelly is just a gritty man who is tough as a $2 steak and has the uncanny ability to make every fight ugly — both literally and figuratively — which consistently put him in the position to claim victory.
Nevertheless, I am siding with the rangy Camozzi to use his long range punches and body kicks from the fringe to stay out of the grasp of the Australian grizzly bear Kelly. I anticipate Camozzi frustrating Kelly with his length and footwork as he busts the old man up from the outside en route to a unanimous decision victory or possible late stoppage. The over 2.5 is the best bet to make here in my opinion.
Ben Nguyen vs. Geane Herrera
In a titillating flyweight tilt, Vietnamese-American Ben Nguyen takes on dangerous 26-year-old prospect Geane Herrera. Nguyen entered the UFC an unheralded 125 pound fighter who migrated from the states to Australia and became the best flyweight down under. It didn't take long to put him on the UFC radar however as he put together two quick victories in rapid succession session over tough opposition. Nguyen looked to be well on his way to making some noise in the division before running into the red hot Hawaiian Louis Smolka. Still yet, "Ben Ten" is constantly evolving his game and will likely use the Smolka loss as a learning experience. Getting back on track is going to be difficult however as he is going to have to get past the diminutive dynamo that is Herrera. Don't get it twisted, Herrera is probably the best prospect in the UFC today with a 1-2 record. I mean, I don't know what he did to the UFC match makers, but since his debut in the organization he's faced a murderers row of competition. His lone victory came against a talented Joby Sanchez, but he has suffered hard fought L's to Ray Borg and Ali Bagautinov respectively. Though there shouldn't be an ounce of shame in either of those setbacks.
With 10 of his 16 victories coming by knockout it's no secret that Nguyen is a monster on the feet for a fighter of his stature. Having trained in Thailand for years he has stellar Muay-Thai skills which are accentuated by his 3rd degree black belt in Taekwondo. While striking is Ben's wheehouse, he's no slouch on the mat either as demonstrated by sweeping Smolka numerous times in their scintillating grappling affair. Conversely Herrera is an extremely versatile striker as well who is at his optimum best when able to put his BJJ Brown belt level skills to good use. The pocket-sized pugilist has an excellent double leg takedown in space and transitions from striking to wrestling seamlessly. Herrera is a dynamic little man who isn't outclassed anywhere and only a step behind the most elite talent in the division.
This fight is going to come down to who can utilize their grappling best and IMO that's going to be Herrera. I believe that Herrera can get some well timed takedowns in the middle of the octagon during striking exchanges that give him the opportunity to chew up some clock in dominant positions. This has FOTN written all over it and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go either way quite honestly. Nevertheless I fancy Herrera in an absolute barn-burner.
Seo Hee Ham vs. Danielle Taylor
A pair of Lilliputian female strawweights Seo Hee Ham of South Korea and American Danielle Taylor tangle in the only ladies match of the evening. For all intents and purposes Taylor and Ham are primarily kickboxers, though the latter is a Sanda champion – think Cung Le — which helps her with throws and trips from the clinch. Meanwhile, though Taylor is by and large a striker first and foremost, she too has a bit of wrestling in her game. What's more, as demonstrated in her tilt with the very talented Maryna Moroz, she is not a fish out of water on the mat either.
This is a battle of two very diminutive females who theoretically should be competing at atomweight. Neither lady is a finisher with their strikes as Ham has not recorded a single stoppage in 23 professional matches while Taylor has claimed three TKO's over her 9 wins. Though they were against low level competition. Nicknamed "Hamderlei Silva" for her aggressive striking style, Ham is as game as they come, and her voluminous output makes her a difficult out each time she fights. Having said that, if this bout ends before the final bell, I suspect it will be the more explosive Taylor who will claim victory.
At any rate, this should be a fun back-and-forth matchup where both ladies see themselves in advantageous positions. At the end of the day though, I do believe it is going to be the speed, footwork and overall better athleticism of Taylor that is the X factor in this fight. As such I think she is a ripe pick for an underdog play. I like this fight to go over 2.5 as a parlay piece as well as a flier on Taylor by decision.
Damien Brown vs. Jon Tuck
In the first of a trio of lightweight scraps, Australia’s Damien Brown takes on Guam’s gunslinger Jon Tuck. Before I get into the dissection what me start off by saying that Tuck is among the most frustrating fighters to watch for those who've followed his career over the past five + years. The reason I say this is because anyone who was familiar with him prior to joining the UFC recognized the talent he had with many pegging him a can't miss prospect. In fact most believed his trajectory was destined for top 10 status. An athletic fighter with all the versatility you need to succeed, Tuck is formidable on the feet with a cracking Brazilian jujitsu black belt level submission game to boot. Nevertheless for whatever reason — be it mental or whatever — Tuck has not been able to fulfill the promise that most observers expected of him when he was competing in BJJ tournaments and the Pacific Islands MMA circuit early in his career. Meanwhile. Brown is significantly less gifted a specimen, yet through toughness and hard work he has carved himself out a spot in the preeminent mixed martial arts organization of the world. Competent wherever the fight takes place, Brown will be consistently searching for a way to win the fight. Don't get me wrong, "Beatdown Brown" isn't going to blow you away with speed or power, but will always be a tough out because of his well-rounded skill set, durability and conditioning.
If you're looking for a statistical point of data that gives an extra hint to the outcome of this fight, it may be relevant to know that "Super Saiyan" has fought six times in the Octagon where he has alternated wins and losses. Incidentally, he is coming off a split decision loss in his last bout against Josh Emmett. Having said that, he looked outstanding in the final frame and nearly got himself a late stoppage. Remember bettors, "the trend is your friend".
Tuck's conditioning in the third round vs. Emmett was his best performance in the latter stages of the fights since joining the UFC and I believe he picks up where he left off. For whatever reason it appears as though he finally flipped a switch and is prepared to realize his true potential. Training at Kings MMA with Master Rafael Cordeiro and a group of killers as sparring partners; including RDA, Jake Ellenberger and Beneil Dariush, the Guam native is definitely putting in the work with the right people. Undoubtedly this is going to contribute to the evolution of his game.
Tuck will enjoy a prodigious 5" reach advantage over the Aussie and the way he fights should only amplify it. For Brown to get his hand raised this weekend he is going to need to set a furious pace and hope Tuck tires down the stretch. However, as mentioned, Tuck's suspect cardio looked drastically improved last time out.
Stylistically Brown is at a marked deficit in every aspect of the game and the speed of Tuck will be too much for the hometown fighter to overcome. What's more, Tucck is an absolute finishing machine with all but one of his nine career victories coming ITD.
Tuck at -150 is a great parlay piece and I believe he gets the job done ITD as well.
Thanks @MMA Goodfella great write ups
That order is bananas, ham and taylor on main card and perhaps the 3rd and 4th best fight on early prelim and main prelims, someone gone full nutz lol
Weigh ins about to start;
I mean ben could barely make it back to his corner after one rd with smolka. He kind of reminds me of a vitor type fighter, he goes in guns blazing kill or be killed and if things don't go his way he starts to fade.
I missed real weigh-ins.
I dunno man playing the over is as dangerous as playing either side imo
Yeah I think i'm gonna hedge that to a very small play. I just hate this fight all around for betting. Thought that was a semi decent line to stab just cause both of these guys are so damn tough but who knows
Knight is in Hooker's head
Had to bet that FOTN based on shit talk alone haha.
no real weigh ins for this one oddly, only the ones showing now.
Thought these are the real ones? They look dehydrated. Khalil weighed in with towel?
lausa looks outstanding, absolutely ripped 125
zhikui looks excellent, too... 127, towel no good, he has 2 hours to cut
they're about the same size, i think?
shang tsung up first, our souls are his. he looks pretty darn good, actually
vera looks alright.
vera is 2-3" taller
knight very lean. bit drawn out.
hooker suuuper lean and rangey, huge frame for 145
hooker is 1-2" taller
herrera looks fantastic, manbun not withstanding. shredded as hell.
nguyyen looks great, too
nguyen maybe 1" taller? hard to tell
meunier huge 170, looks great. huge frame for 170
walsh absolutely shredded as always, but holy shit.
meunier is 2+" taller
tuck looks fantastic, as usual.
brown looks pretty decent for him.
tuck is 2" taller (shoes)
camozzi looks so-so, about standard.
kelly same deal. he looks alright for him, but not great obviously.
camozzi is 2-3" taller
taylor looks excellent again, so small, but ripped for 115 girl
ham looks solid, about standard for her
ham is like 4" taller! when are we ever gonna say that!?
pedro looks solid. strong dude.
rountree going right to the towel, he is pretty jacked, tho maybe a little soft? makes it w/the towel, looks super happy
pedro is 2-3" taller
volkanovski looks decent at 154, and indeed, not a big 155.
kasuya looks solid, same as debut
kasuya about 1-2" taller
akhmedov tips in at 171, looks great
noke looks pretty damned good at 170 again, tho a bit drained
noke is 1" taller
holbrook looks solid enough, about as expected
matthews absurdly ripped as always. freakin tank.
matthews is 1-2" taller
brunson looks fantastic, huge 185
whittaker looks super solid.
brunson is 2" taller
-stabbed at ham due to size edge (was leaning that way alrdy)
-stabbed at lausa w/the weight miss
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