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UFN 101 - Whittaker vs Brunson - Australia

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Ukram, Nov 21, 2016.

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  1. Bands Yellow Belt

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    Lou from Gamblou.com giving us some of his expert picks for free!

    Welcome fight Enthusiasts to UFC FN 101 from Australia. This card offers many fresh fighting faces we have little data on which mandates that today we watch more than wager in order to gain advantage down the line. Here are a couple mangy mutts that ‘London to a brick’* will offer us their absolute best effort tonight. We’re betting that our Bitzer’s* bite!

    -Let’s Fight-

    (All GambLou.com releases are understood to be a standard and hypothetical $100.00 per position unless otherwise stated. We employ $100.00 to easily track results as every GambLou.com release is accounted for each Monday AM. Public accounting allows us to display bottom line profitability while providing our readers with 110% disclosure).

    Tuck -135 vs. Brown +125

    Brown, the Aussie is a grizzled fight vet having worked the regional Aussie circuit until recently being called up to the UFC. He displayed tremendous grit and determination in his last victory and while he may have a slight edge over Tuck on the floor we feel the Aussie will be unable to fight the calculated fight preferring to trade leather with a man that is more athletic, larger, faster and skilled than Brown. Provided Tuck controls the distance and keeps Brown raging inside to exchange this is a fine spot for Tuck. Tuck opened -185….

    Tuck -135 (half)

    Camozzi -260 vs. Kelly +240

    Camozzi is the younger, longer, taller striker here and deserves to be the chalk. Kelly standing is no real match for Camozzi for he is not only 39 but fairly premeditated with his striking, slow and plodding. He does have some power but Kelly’s craft is Judo. Kelly will look to try to get his hands on the younger faster striker, grind on him, take him against the fence for a fleece on the floor in order to sap the younger man’s energy and convert this fight into a barroom brawl. Kelly, who just returned from some time off because he was coaching the Aussie Judo team in the Olympics has been training and working with these young men for months and understands the position he is in tonight fighting in front of the home crazies. We feel that Kelly’s in position to offer his best effort this evening and we feel his top effort is worthy of a half a ‘caterpillar’*.

    Kelly +240 (half)

    Volkanovski -170 vs Kasuya +160

    We know little of the local here except to notice that he is giving away tremendous size to his opponent. Further this is his UFC debut. Fightmetric followers will also note that when he hit the scale he was one pound underweight. Our resources have indicated that Volkanovski is really a 125’er and our scrutiny of him at weigh-ins reinforces that. He’s a stand up striking machine and will want to come out and hit the Japanese fighter with Sunday shots but we question how much affect those shots will really have against his opponent if they do in fact connect. Kasuya is not only the larger man; he also has the benefit of experiencing a tough UFC loss against a mighty fighter in Nick Hein so it is our opinion that Kasuya is going to be no easy task. He’s sure to be focused and a bit desperate to get his hand raised and we handicap this fight with this in mind. Kasuya will need to get his hands on the striker, take him to the floor and use his grappling to gain control of the fighter and eventually the fight and we feel he will be able to do that….Here’s a little prop on the pup.

    Over 2.5 rounds +100 (half)

    Brunson -135 vs. Whittaker +125

    This is perhaps one of the best fights of the year. These two men are both top ten fighters in their division and they arrive with plenty of momentum. We discussed this fight earlier this week on our appearance with Gabriel Morency on MMAMeltdown which airs on Fightnetwork and we’ll share many of those same sentiments now.

    The Kiwi Whittaker fights out of Australia and is a young explosive striker with deadly power. He advances with unrelenting pressure and is supremely confident. He makes little beef about the fact that he is there to knock his opponent’s head off of his body. The opponent Derek Brunson arrives to the Octagon tonight with plenty of momentum and swag of his own. Brunson has faced a higher level of competition than has Robert. Brunson will be the larger man in the Octagon with a substantial 4” reach advantage. He’s a three time DII All American wrestler who’s as capable on the mat as he is standing and striking…plus he has power. Brunson is also a southpaw which is worthy of mentioning for all of Whittaker’s recent wins have been against right handers and his last loss in April of 2014 was against a man taller, longer and a southpaw in Steven Thompson. We believe Derek Brunson has more ways to win this fight specifically he’ll need to weather Whittaker’s early fury, eventually take this fight to the floor and wear, grind and maul the striker in order to have his way with him in the championship rounds.

    Brunson -135
     
  2. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Lou you pussy. Said Knight is good value, doesn't pull the trigger <36>
     
  3. Bands Yellow Belt

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    Maybe Knight is only for paying members. Hooker is 1-4 on the scorecards and Knights never been finished, I'm putting 4 units on Knight. Hooker has also said he's basically going to run in this fight so that won't be a good look.
     
  4. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Best bet on the card
     
  5. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    Meunier up to +110

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Bands Yellow Belt

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    So tempted to fade Walsh, Also tempted to fade Yao.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    let's cool it on taylor's private parts, focus a bit more on the fight bet discussion, it can be offensive
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    you bet it like 6x as big as i did, but i did the same thing, thinking a lot of the same ones COULD get subs, but hey, it's a gamble, right? i had +320 and up, basically same prices but like i said, smaller stake.

    matthews, pedro, tuck, herrera, vera the most likely subbers, imo
     
  9. Bands Yellow Belt

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    If anyone is betting Lausa or Meunier please tell me why you think they will win
     
  10. lefontes Purple Belt

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    Im on Meunier. Training Tristar, wrestling advantage, reach advantage, good jab, maybe better cardio. Walsh not UFC level imo.
     
  11. Bands Yellow Belt

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    Former Luca Fury disciple Sean Carey's pick
     
  12. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    The guy who stopped touting (charged $100 a month) because he went into a loss for the year

    Fade away peeps
     
  13. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Has Lou changed his mind on the overs for Volkanovski v Kasuya? Sure he said he fancied the under on mma meltdown with Gabe.
     
  14. wigglestick pess de gward Platinum Member

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    Damn 5d no longer giving points props? I wanted kelly +3.5
     
  15. Bands Yellow Belt

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    LOL "Loyal Lord Gamblou disciple"
     
  16. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    Playing 2u on Hooker, Noke, Pedro and Brunson individually, and have a 7 fold flier including them with the other 3 cashed for 60u (0.5u stake)
     
  17. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Might still get them in the next two hours, but guessing the holiday week fucked them up with pricing all the normal lines
     
  18. Brick Top Yellow Swag Banned

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    yeah man you like my avatar?
     
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Two more breakdowns

    Richard Walsh vs. Jonathan Meunier
    In a 170 pound clash between Australia vs. Canada natives, Richard Walsh aims to protect his village like he's fucking Drogon and the invading Canuck Jonathan Meunier is there to rape the Khaleesi. Indeed, protect his turf like his life depends on it, because for all intents and purposes this is a loser leaves town match if there ever was one. Both men are entering the contest off of losses and are middling welterweights in an ever expanding pack of jackals. It's very easy to get lost in the shuffle and a "L" here would almost assuredly result in a pink slip for either man.

    Walsh is a blue-collar grinder that seeks to achieve victory by whatever means necessary. Though he's not the most athletic fighter in the world but he has a serviceable striking game and he is consistently in his opponents face. What's more, he has good reactionary takedowns and with his BJJ brown belt he is a threat on the ground as well. What's more, "Filthy Rich" utilizes dirty boxing well in the clinch where he also has nice trips and foot sweep takedowns. For his part, the gargantuan 170 pound Meunier was a proven force in Canada with a 7-0 record and all wins coming inside the distance. Upon entering the USA, the 6'3" Canadian striking specialist appeared to have some potential before being ground into fine silica and choked out by the wet blanket that is Colby Covington. For all of his physical assets with the 6'3" height and 75 inch reach — which are almost always advantages for the Tri-Star product — Meunier too often doesn't utilize his assets to the best of his ability. Specifically, instead of fighting tall and using his length to batter his man from the fringe, the Canadian sniper often closes the distance on his own and in turn makes his opponents job much easier than it should be. Still yet, Meunier is a damn good kickboxer when he will let his strikes fly — as he is often apathetic — as opposed to consistently putting that whaling-harpooned of a jab in his opponents face. Consequently, this allows inferior opposition to hang around. This cannot happen on the highest of levels. The grappling is pretty decent for the Canuck as he has decent takedowns from all areas and his long limbs help him to control his opponents posture and latch up submissions normal blue belts could not attain.

    if Meunier is able to settle into a groove he can be extremely dangerous everywhere. Ultimately, I anticipate this contest being an ugly back-and-forth tête-à-tête with momentum swinging like a pendulum. In the end, the victor will be decided based upon which guy could best implement his game plan. Despite the discrepancy in the size, I actually lean towards the rough and rugged stylings of Walsh to get the job done in front of his hometown fans. This is pertinent as he will be buoyed by their support and everything he lands will be cheered rabidly which could sway the judges opinions if it hits the cards. As such, I do believe it goes the full distance.

    Prediction: Walsh busts the Canuck up and later buys him a frosty Fosters at the after party. I like Walsh via split decision and for a very small wager.

    Alex Volkanovski vs. Yusuke Kasuya
    Featherweights clash as UFC debutante and Aussie Alex Volkanovski brings his swagger into the cage where he intends to validate the ballyhooed hype surrounding him by turning away Japanese interloper Yusuke Kasuya" For his part, Kasuya is primarily a grappler though a serviceable striker with solid fundamentals. He also has a bit of heat behind his shots. Making up for any technical shortcomings in his striking is the fact that he is thoroughly aggressive from bell to bell and isn't afraid to make things messy. Sporting a very respectable 9-2-2 record, Kasuya has recorded 8 of his 9 wins via submission. Having made his name on the Asia-Pacific regional fight circuit — specifically in the Legend FC and PXC organizations stationed in Malaysia and Quam respectively — Kasuya is a formidable opponent to be sure. Tonight he will be better in hostile territory once again where will look to get back on the winning track after losing his UFC debut in Cologne, Germany to the ultra tough Nick Hein.

    In the other corner is the aforementioned hometown favorite and absolute buzzsaw Volkanovski. The chiseled 5'5" AFC 145 and 155 pound champion, he is a fearsome stroker who packs dynamite in both hands. Imagine a much more nimble, athletic and explosive version of Steve Bosse and you have a rough draft of what to expect with Volkanovski. The Aussie has a lot of natural ability that translates to well into the fight game. Having played rugby prior to becoming a professional mixed martial artist Alex-Volkanovski's athleticism is readily apparent. Additionally, he brings with him a background in wrestling as well. Make no mistake though, it is his fearsome handiwork where the Aussie destroyer does his damage. Notably, he has a sparkling 13-1 record where he has starched eight of his opponents.

    Riding a 10-fight win streak, Volkanovski is ultra popular down under and will have the crowd popping when he enters the arena. Stylistically this should be a favorable matchup for the hometown fighter as his far more athletic and his wrestling background should allow him to keep it upright and from there will have a substantial advantage. This is a designed match up to get the hometown fighter a highlight reel knockout which is exactly what I believe happens. However, if the Japanese fighter is able to weather the early storm and hang around we might see a late submission. As such a third round flier or submission prop bet may be in line as well.

    Volkanovski round one knockout.

    For anyone who missed my other six breakdowns they are on page 37 of the thread. Best of luck to you guys tonight. I'll try to stay in here as much as possible but I have family in for the holidays. I'm still catching up with all of the predictions in the thread but I appreciate everyone who put in the work and made the contributions that make our humble community so fucking awesome.
     
  20. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Switched my bet from Vera to Ning. Vera can grapple but I dont think he can take Ning down here. Dude has zero offensive wrestling and pulls guard like an idiot.
     
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