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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Officer_Brown, Dec 22, 2016.

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  1. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Wish id watched tape on yair now. Looking over his record he impressed me in the filli fight but otherwise he has not blown me away to justify this price. Pls let lb be kind to us on this fight.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah it was -450 or something, not -700 (and I know embellishing months later to prove your point is kinda commonplace so it's not just you that does it) and I was floating it out there as possible parlay fodder. I never ended up betting it. Please don't try to talk me out of anything ever though, I've done just fine on my own over the years. But thanks buddy.
     
  3. iGnP Silver Belt

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    i think a lot of people are fans of BJ and its clouding their judgment of this fight. thankfully, he's a huge dog and you wont lose out on much if he doesn't pull through. with that being said, i fully agree with @Buddy Brown here.
     
  4. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    They are absolutely terrible fights 90% of the time, but they're actually fun to watch and there's always good finishes. The card last night was very entertaining. No ads, next fight starts instantly, over in a couple of hours. Won't take you long to get up to speed, it's just like low level UFC WMMA but more entertaining on average.
     
  5. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    You'll lose the value if you wait 'til he looks good during the fight to lb him.

    I'll be honest I had a dream last night where BJ knocked him out at the end of the 1st and maybe that's clouding my judgement a bit lol. Still think there's value at +333 though.
     
  6. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

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    Jae Gibbz special

    0.75u Rodriguez split/majority decision +2875

    Definitely unlikely, but I am more than willing to take the shot. Unrelated to this fight, but he has won two out of his five UFC fights by split decision. No regrets
     
  7. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    You touted it at -530, yeah my bad. No one even knew I was talking about you and I wasn't trying to embarass you. But even you admitted after the fight that it was a bad play, and to me that is just a good example of a time someone should try to talk someone out of a bet.

    Just trying to point out the difference in the numbers and implied values in each situation. Not hurt any egos.
     
  8. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Yeah but as I said betting on him prefight is just a complete guess. No recent tape to go off, 7 years since a win, looked like a shell of himself in every beating he's took since, has even ADMITTED 2 years ago that he doesn't have it in him to fight anymore...

    Let's be honest, if it was any other 38+ yo coming back in these circumstances, whether they were a former champ or an amazing grappler or not, you'd all be fading him or passing. BJ just has an amazing ability to give you all false hope.
     
  9. edole Brown Belt

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    Rodriguez might come out looking like a monster and wipe the floor with a way past his prime BJ, but after rewatching the Bruce Lee Roy fight, I could actually see BJ piecing him up on the feet and landing takedowns.
     
  10. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Bro it's 3 to 1 dog money, that's the reason. At evens I'd be on Yair.

    It's called gambling for a reason right..?
     
  11. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    Regardless of you current experience you don't understand the concept of value, some people it takes years and years. Sometimes without someone like EZflyer to show the way some people will never understand it.

    It's just hard to read people giving amateurish advice like it's fact. Carry on tho.
     
  12. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    BREAKING: Big Nog has announced he's coming out of retirement, saying he wants the HW belt. He'll be facing rising prospect Francis Ngannou and training with JacksonWink. He assures his fans that he's as motivated as ever and "back for real this time" and that "kicking ass is timeless".

    Odds:
    Big Nog +385
    Ngannou -400


    Question to serious BJ backers:

    Is Big Nog good value because he's a former champ and has a big grappling advantage?
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2017
  13. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Okay buddy, keep acting like you can make long term profit on "value" bets where there's no tape to go off whatsoever in the last 7 years to prove the fighter you're betting on can even beat low level fighters, never mind legit prospects.

    I'll keep doing what I'm doing and making consistent profit every year.
     
  14. rille31 Brown Belt

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    I remember yari almost subbing rosa a couple of times, had a really tight triangle locked in
     
  15. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Regarding Alex White and Tony Martin

    What am I missing here help me?!? I've watched countless video footage of Tony Martin and Alex White and every time I come away with the same conclusion and that is with Martin having his hand raised. I get to this conclusion because of the myriad superior assets Martin should have.

    Martin should have a prodigious size and strength edge, augmented by a protracted BJJ advantage. I just envision Martin using these tools to take Alex down and strangle him.

    Not only is Martin the bigger man here, but Alex is is taking this fight on short notice and moving up from his natural 145 pound weight class. This to tangle with the already monstrously large lightweight in Martin. Indeed, Martin is a giant 155 pound fighter with the wingspan of a condor and owner of the resourceful gangly arms and legs that enable him to wrap his opponent up like a fucking octopus when he gets them down. Specifically, Tony Martin is a Brown Belt in BJJ and should have a significant advantage over Alex should he be able to implement his wrestling and/or force him into a grappling exchange. Conversely, Alex is merely a Blue Belt in BJJ and will beat a significant size disadvantage to make matters worse.

    Martin is an expert back taker and is great with all chokes but he is particularly proficient at or using his gorilla strength to contort arm joints in positions joints into ways that they aren't supposed to bend. For reference see how he submitted BJJ Black Belt ace Fabrício Camões with a gnarly kimura lock.

    Stylistically this fight favors Martin too. Alex is predominantly a boxer/Thai striker with a mediocre grappling game at best. Worse still, his takedown defense is quite woeful. Given all of these aforementioned facts, I don't understand why there is so much late money coming in on White.

    Inarguably Martin has a suspect gas tank and has wilted late in bouts like unattended household shrubbery at times, but it should be noted that he did so against top shelf competition. Specifically, Martin has only dropped fights to top 10 competition in Beneil Dariush by to Rashid Magomedov and then Brazilian jujitsu master Leonardo's Santos. That is a Santos who just so happens to be undefeated inside the octagon through 6 fights thus far. Meanwhile, in stark opposition contrast, Alex was dusted in the third round by Lucas Martins and decisioned by the inimitable "Cassius" Clay Collard of all people.

    I know that both fighters have have substandard success in the octagon, but the schedule of competition is not even in the same stratosphere. I mean, I find very limited paths to victory for White to win without Martin being a willing participant. Essentially Martin would need to significantly run out of steam in rounds two and three to drop this fight as I see it. Nevertheless, he is currently up all the way to -165 when just a couple of days ago he was -220 or worse.

    Am I missing something here?
     
  16. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    You aren't hurting my ego, and keep in mind I could have just let the comment go and nobody would have remembered it was me. The reason I responded is that it's easy in hindsight to say this stuff. We're all right and we're all wrong on given things. You picked out one line with a lot of juice that I entertained as parlay fodder (again, didn't end up betting it) that you remembered being very right about. The rationale behind the bet at the time was solid. -500 range implies you need less than a 16% that it hits for it to make sense to bet it. Cote had on KO/TKO loss before that fight and that was due to his fluke knee injury vs Silva. I put the odds of Cowboy finishing by KO in the at fight at under 10% at the time. Turns out Cowboy at 170 packs a lot of power. And that Cote could get his chin cracked.

    Anyway no need to rehash it but my point is that unless you have someone who really clearly doesn't know what they're doing, you shouldn't be trying to talk anyone out of bets. I've been doing this a long time, and if I listened every time someone tried to talk me out of a bet over the years I'd be much worse off.
     
  17. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    I used to think just like you. I'm starting to understand the notion of finding value in a bet. BJ at +333 in this spot screams value. People are totally overrating his opponent here. Who has Yair actually beaten to make him such a legit prospect?
     
  18. Barkus Brown Belt

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    I remember live betting Yair as a heavy favorite and thinking I'm never gonna bet on this dummy again after he constantly gave up position for submissions. But I'm a Yair believer now. I think he will do big things in the UFC.
     
  19. iGnP Silver Belt

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    BJ's last good win was in 2009...
     
  20. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Yair has beat multiple top 25 fighters, and a top 15.

    Who has BJ most recently beat? Oh yeah, a past his prime Matt Hughes. SEVEN YEARS AGO. Sure he's been in there with great fighters since, but it's not like he looked capable of competing at the top 15 level. He's done nothing but get dominated and embarrassed since 2010.

    Betting on MMA isn't about blindly making assumptions based on info from nearly a decade ago. It's about watching recent tape, getting a good read on a fighter and their match-up and finding value in their line. Betting on BJ isn't doing that. There is absolutely ZERO evidence he can still compete at the highest level, and therefore it's IMPOSSIBLE to get a good read on him and how he will perform. You are throwing a dart with a blindfold on.

    Sorry that you can't see that.
     
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