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UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Officer_Brown, Dec 22, 2016.

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  1. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Every single one of his opponents since then has been monsters, most of them at 170. Yair's never beaten or even fought anyone anywhere near the top 10 at 145.
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    This. If you think Bj has a path of victory if Yair gets careless on the ground, his sub prop is still over +550. But that's a Hail Mary stab if anything
     
  3. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    @mkess101

    Yeah no reason to rehash, thought we had a cordial and respectful discussion about it at the time. We all lose indeed and it didn't make me think less of you or anything.

    It's funny there are guys I think are the best handicappers in the world, and we still try to talk each other out of plays all the time. Maybe it takes a level of mutual respect for it not to come off as dickish (or maybe I am also kinda a dick...)

    Even the phrase "talking someone out of a bet" isn't accurate, it's more like making sure your friends are considering all angles and aren't getting an irrational hard on over a line.

    I honestly think if done right, it is a good and profitable exercise. But in general you want to be doing it if someone is blindly betting large faves, or going way too big on a questionable underdog.
     
  4. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Irrelevant because BJ hasn't been at the top of any division in a very, very long time. I'd make BLR a favorite over BJ too if that fight was made
     
  5. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    Martin is my biggest play. He should smoke White. As said Marin has actually been fighting legit high level competition, and being competitive.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    No that's fair. I guess yeah I don't like the "talking someone out of..." verbiage. But I get what you're saying. The whole point of this forum is to kick ideas around and share insight. I totally agree that if you don't bother listening, what's the point of having the discussion. That's more what you were getting at it sounds like, and that makes sense for sure.
     
  7. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    You're giving BJ credit for fighting way past his prime and getting his head caved in for the last 7 years, and not giving Yair credit for beating a top 15 fighter at 24 years old. That says it all.

    Yair is young, he hasn't had a chance to fight the best of the best yet, but hes proved he can hang with the top 15. You have no reason whatsoever to believe BJ can do the same. BJ's last win was in a different era of MMA and his performances since have proved that we have no reason to think he has what it takes anymore and hasn't for a while. He even said so himself.
     
  8. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    What do you think Frankie Edgar, Nick Diaz, Rory MacDonald, and Jon Fitch would do to Yair? They'd dominate him pretty good to imo.

    I'm not saying BJ's going to win. I'm saying there's value in his ML at over 3/1.
     
  9. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    See you guys in 2.5 hrs. Ive got work soon as this card finishes so 2.5 hrs MIGHT get me thru tomo.

    Fuck you UFC with a Sunday card.
     
  10. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    You're just not getting it. It's not about who he was in with.

    Who do you think BJ would have beat with the way he fought Edgar in his last fight? No one in the top 15, I'll tell you that right now. He was lost. He looked like he forgot how to fight.

    Again, for the 1000th time, you can't say BJ has value when there's no recent tape to go off. It's impossible to have a good read on him. His last good performance was nearly a decade ago over a washed up fighter.

    Forget it, this is a lost cause. Not repeating myself 500 times. I've tried my best.
     
  11. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    I don't know man. That's pretty close to the moneyline for me. And with the moneyline, you can live bet hedge it off, with the sub you are stuck there for not much extra.

    If yair gets sloppy and bj has a good early round by just holding back position, or mount, and you can be freerolling. The ML has much more flexibility imho.
     
  12. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    Fili was unranked when he fought Yair, it was his last performance against Dias that squeezed him into the top 15. You're clutching at straws, Yair's fought nobody yet. Obviously doesn't mean he can't annihilate BJ.

    Don't wanna clog up the thread anymore so that's my last post.
     
  13. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Lol what does that matter? He's still top 15 a few months later.

    Top 25 then. The same point applies. You're just not getting it.

    Yair's last wins are over top 15/25 guys. BJ's last win is over a washed up guy who's been retired for 6 years.
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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    How much are you planning on betting that you're considering hedging off live? Penn rd 1 and rd 2 are both over +1000, consider paying less for those and just sticking w it. Penn has always had shit cardio and his age isn't gonna help that cause, especially w Yair pushing the pace. If BJ is gonna pull one out of his ass, it's gonna be early
     
  15. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    No I totally get what you're saying bro. Just think Yair's being over-hyped a little.

    It's a gamble but at +333 I'm willing to have a pop. We're all going to find out in a few hours.
     
  16. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Agee completely

    BOL
     
  17. AffectEffect Banned Banned

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    Depends on how well the rest of the night is going. I feel comfortable with half a unit ML at the moment, and him being the final leg in some lottery tickets.

    BJ wants a sub yes, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him implement a Greg Jackson lay and pray strategy, and if a sub comes it comes. That would be best case for me: bj wrestling for rounds 1 and 2.
     
  18. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    I seriously don't understand why everyone is using this point. It's irrelevant

    If BJ fought the way he did against Edgar in his last fight against ANY of the top 15, he would have still been pummeled. It looked like he didn't know how to fight. Just because he was in there with great fighters doesn't mean he would have smashed any of the top 15 at the time

    A better point to consider is the fact that his last win is 7 years ago over a washed up fighter who retired a few months afterwards

    If you're betting on him for fun, fine, but the bottom line is a bet on BJ is nothing more than throwing a dart with a blindfold on. Maybe the dirt still hits, but there's no recent tape to prove he can still compete at this level and therefore no reason to believe his line has value. It's as simple as that, and I don't get why it's so hard for people to understand.
     
  19. Buddy Brown Dog Lover Banned

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    Say what now? If BJ wrestles for the first 2 you're fucked. BJ's cardio has always been bad.
     
  20. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    No it hasn't. It was amazing under Marv Marinovich, and with altitude training there is reason to believe it won't be bad here
     
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