UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

[iGnP]

Some of Jacks older fights


ko loss here:


Last fight HL reel here:


Looks good at catching leg kicks and then trying to take guys heads off, some nice boxing shown at times (all against low end guys though) Maybe a dog play......especially if spicely did.

I think this fight has Santos DEC written all over it

edit: NVM i take that back

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Someone tell me why i shouldn't bet Cezar big without bringing his chin up please?

One reason would be that he is fighting Theo in Canada. If I was to play Cezar (which I am) I would complement it by also playing the over/fight goes the distance (which I am). It could end up being a close fight. I also do not know if the new judging is in affect (somebody confirm, please) and Cezar doesn't take shots to the chin well which could look bad, although I do not think highly at all of Elias's hands

Just some food for thought

 

[TimCoreCombat]

I would not bet against Zahabi. He's Firas Zahabi's brother who is arguably the mastermind of MMA Training. He will surely come with a good fighting plan.
However, I would go with over 1.5 rounds at -200.
It seems like we are in the world of overs.

Just because you're brother is a good coach doesn't mean you can fight.

Hell, my dad is in the top spot of his field in the world but that doesn't make me anything close to what he is.

What have you seen our of his actual fighting that you like?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

In 2017,

We are not just betting Fighter A vs Fighter B anymore,

We have 6 different opponents in one match, the other 4 are:

The confused ref
Confused judge #1
#2
#3

 

[EzFlyer]

Considering the state judging is in nowadays it's probably not a bad idea to bet the dog when it's likely to go to a decision.

i'd agree w/you if i didn't have 1 split win in the last 14 and 4 in the last 30 (something to that effect) (and mostly on dogs)

 

[EzFlyer]

Worst card to bet on 2017, a total pick'em card.

what do you mean by pick'em card?

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Gerald M has 1 win so far against Joe Schmoe why is he so favored? His record looks like a journeyman record.

I've only seen him once so I don't really know much about him though, what am I missing?

-300 is steep

 

[Sadistics]

Gerald M has 1 win so far against Joe Schmoe why is he so favored? His record looks like a journeyman record.

I've only seen him once so I don't really know much about him though, what am I missing?

-300 is steep

Did you see Janes' fight against Berish?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gerald M has 1 win so far against Joe Schmoe why is he so favored? His record looks like a journeyman record.

I've only seen him once so I don't really know much about him though, what am I missing?

-300 is steep

Its steep but hes one of the favorites I have a hard time seeing lose. Janes is bad. He'll get crushed standing, he'll get crushed in the clinch, and I don't see him getting the better of the wrestling or grappling.

 

[EzFlyer]

Gerald M has 1 win so far against Joe Schmoe why is he so favored? His record looks like a journeyman record.

I've only seen him once so I don't really know much about him though, what am I missing?

-300 is steep

he's a dangerous dude, very aggressive, can hurt you and then can sub you

janes has that bjj background.. maybe he can survive, but he's slow, plodding.. he's a lot older than meer, too... i think he gets kinda lit up and might even get tapped, even if he's a bjj blackbelt or whatever. but yea. i'm not laying -300. i was hoping the -185 opener would drop a bit, but as of now, not even touching that fight

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Did you see Janes' fight against Berish?

Yeah I didn't think he was terrible he had a solid output. He wasn't Joe Gelato bad though.

Its steep but hes one of the favorites I have a hard time seeing lose. Janes is bad. He'll get crushed standing, he'll get crushed in the clinch, and I don't see him getting the better of the wrestling or grappling.

he's a dangerous dude, very aggressive, can hurt you and then can sub you

janes has that bjj background.. maybe he can survive, but he's slow, plodding.. he's a lot older than meer, too... i think he gets kinda lit up and might even get tapped, even if he's a bjj blackbelt or whatever. but yea. i'm not laying -300. i was hoping the -185 opener would drop a bit, but as of now, not even touching that fight

Fair enough I'm just wondering about the price tag of a guy with that many losses at -300.

I'm gonna take my chances on Jane actually. He's got that forward pressing style maybe the judges will like it that he comes to fight if by chance this fight hits the scorecards. Add in that Janes is a black belt and Meer mostly finishes with sub it might go 3 as aggressive as they are.

 

[Ukram]

I am liking Ryan as a dog, yeah I know terrible defence shown but he puts a good pressure style on guys and commits to his shots even if his head snaps back several times, I feel it could be judge friendly someone pushing forward and landing also.

Ryan and Meers have both beaten low end guys really, Meers is a vet but with that many fights he does look a bit too battle worn especially with 33 fights, Ryan looks younger then meers does and only is 10 fights in.

Can't fathom why Meers line is that juiced either, only one fight in the ufc too.

I may throw away ££ on a Ryan decision lotto parlay

 

[HumbleCoco]

Thiago Santos is an interesting story. His finishes are devastatingly impressive but when the level of competition rises to rise level he falters. Interestingly he has a loss to a Vincent Luque in 2012, might say something about his ceiling. Anyway back to Santos, he has devastating kicks from the outside which could well be all that needs to said about this upcoming bout. He does however occasionally go from confident to over-comfortable, even in bouts he wins. Both Spicely and Mousasi exploited this, surprising him relatively early, probably aware of what he can do if given the space. But the real tell is probably the Theodorou fight where he gave the kicking game to a lesser kicker simply because he was getting them off more often. The second round was also close, allowing Elias to grind on him for long stretches before he began to kick up into the higher gears, in the third the momentum passed and while there was some more grinding, Santos landed some very hot strikes, nearly claiming a finish. He is also doing this camp at ATT while Marshman trains at a place where he's more than likely the best man in there (although he has done stints at Tristar before).

I'll have to declare a bit of bias to the Brit but Marshman is a good technical boxer which some spice in his fists to back it all up. Perhaps his best quality to me is the straight grit he holds, a long serving paratrooper in the British Army I'm he has some experiences that overshadow what the cage might throw at him mentally. He does have skills lacking on the ground and definitely needs a closer range than Santos to land his offence, but has the know how to close that gap with good boxing technique and ring craft.

I think the odds are fair, probably most likely is Santos has the kicking game to close up shop early, as he's done before. However, there's definitely a quite a large space for Marshman to operate, he has fists that could cause major trouble while Santos thinks about himself rather than the fight at hand and should the fight go deeper Marshman won't go easily and we haven't really seen how Santos responds to prolonged painful adversity (I don't include Theo in this). I was thinking over fight ends by KO, but the line is unlikely to get me going, and Marshman might have enough to go the distance even with a hard coming Santos.

To be honest, if you like Santos his ML is fair but I can't trust his mental game against someone who could easily capitalise. The dog is fairly live, especially by KO and I think I'm willing to go in for a small bet depending on the line. The (optimistic) call is a dramatic finish in R1 with him coming out hard in response to a Santos trying to fix previous mental lapses with a quick start than ultimately leaves him overthinking.

I say optimistic but the MMA gods owe us some fun fights after last weekend.

 

[Officer_Brown]

Its steep but hes one of the favorites I have a hard time seeing lose. Janes is bad. He'll get crushed standing, he'll get crushed in the clinch, and I don't see him getting the better of the wrestling or grappling.

Agree. Meescharrt may not be anything special but he crushes Janes every day. People go look Janes last fight. Imo he is one of the worst guys on the roster

 

[Joseph Budden]

Gonna rewatch Marshman vs Cedenblad but i'm strongly favoring Santos via KO. Don't let the pillow hands of Magnus fool you into thinking Marshman has a serious chin on him. Marshman has been dropped badly in the regionals by guys with a bit of power, and his defense is not good. Hard to see Santos not capitalizing on the aggression of Marshman and his bad defense by landing a huge shot.

 

[Ukram]

Marshman has shown he can catch kicks in the past and close the distance to land his hands on opponents, yeah he has been ko but those last 2 were not low end or mid level guys one was 13-1 the other 15-6. Otherwise has shown a chin at times, he also has won via chokes and rear naked chokes before something santos loves.

Not saying play Jack right out but he does have some chances here, especially if spicely could do it.

Maybe a flyer on jack finish or in a lotto parlay

 

[HumbleCoco]

Gonna rewatch Marshman vs Cedenblad but i'm strongly favoring Santos via KO. Don't let the pillow hands of Magnus fool you into thinking Marshman has a serious chin on him. Marshman has been dropped badly in the regionals by guys with a bit of power, and his defense is not good. Hard to see Santos not capitalizing on the aggression of Marshman and his bad defense by landing a huge shot.

Definitely a fair read. Marshman definitely responds by hitting back harder than suring up his defence so far in his career and could easily be overwhelmed. I might still play fight ends by KO rather than picking a side.

 

[rille31]

Just because you're brother is a good coach doesn't mean you can fight.

Hell, my dad is in the top spot of his field in the world but that doesn't make me anything close to what he is.

What have you seen our of his actual fighting that you like?

I watched tape on baby firas and I give him several advantages in this fight

better ground game (watching his grappling comp you can tell he is technically sound and reginaldo does make mistakes on the ground)
better wrestling
propably a more technical striking game
better cardio
better camp
training martial arts since he was a little kid, karate black belt, muy thai, jitz, wrasslin


reginaldo does have some advantages aswell

wery strong
huge disparity in experience
always game even when he is gassed
good offensive takedowns for a guy with some technical deficiencies


to many unknowns with zahabi, would put a couple of units on him if this was a pic em but looks like I will have to take a stab on reginaldo if he reaches +200

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Agree. Meescharrt may not be anything special but he crushes Janes every day. People go look Janes last fight. Imo he is one of the worst guys on the roster

You just said it dude, you're betting on someone that isn't special at -300.

I don't understand why you would want 33 cents to your dollar.

 

[Joseph Budden]

I watched tape on baby firas and I give him several advantages in this fight

better ground game (watching his grappling comp you can tell he is technically sound and reginaldo does make mistakes on the ground)
better wrestling
propably a more technical striking game
better cardio
better camp
training martial arts since he was a little kid, karate black belt, muy thai, jitz, wrasslin


reginaldo does have some advantages aswell

wery strong
huge disparity in experience
always game even when he is gassed
good offensive takedowns for a guy with some technical deficiencies


to many unknowns with zahabi, would put a couple of units on him if this was a pic em but looks like I will have to take a stab on reginaldo if he reaches +200

Why better wrestling for Zahabi? He doesn't impress me at all from what i've seen there. One of the last bums he fought was able to get off the ground the second he got an underhook in from bottom. Reginaldo's wrestling is pretty good. Got the better of that aspect vs everyone on TUF Brazil besides Nicolau iirc