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UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 30, 2017.

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  1. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Aiemann Zahabi opponents so far. Looks to be huge can crusher. Definitely some value in Vieira

    3-2
    3-1
    7-11
    0-3
    4-8
    0-8
     
  2. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    so whats the general consensus about marshman/santos. Marshamd took the magnus fight on short notice and got his face rearranged in r1. In the second round magnus gassed and marshman got the tko. Santos should be much better striker than Cedenblad right?
     
  3. timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    I think the weight was more than likely a bigger issue than anyone thinks for Hendricks. I even find myself saying man look at Woodley why can't Hendricks make it, but then again everyone is different and maybe his body really can't get down there anymore. I mean, he's literally missed weight for like over 3 years now so at some point I think I'm even gonna air on Johny's side and just say shit man he really can't make 170. I also think that having such a hard time with the weight took some of the fun out of it for him and once everything becomes about the cut you're game is going to inevitably suffer.

    He might get starched in the first round but I'll pay to see it happen. Think he'll be fine at 85 and hopefully can focus on training and fighting rather than losing weight and dieting.

    Just my opinion. I also think he beat Magny, Lawler, and GSP. Losing to Wonderboy and Gastelum who looks fuckin sick isn't too bad.
     
  4. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Yeah im on Lombard as a pure fade of Hendricks. I am likely never betting Hendricks again. Hendricks' heart simply isnt in it.
     
  5. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    One thing is to look bad against Werdum while injuried and still get the 3rd round.
    Another thing is look bad against Shamil Abdulaxxxxxvo, going 0-3 into the third round and winning because your opponent gassed worse than you.

    I may be mistaken (as Im usually am) but I think Browne odds are really off. He should be favored by a good margin IMO.
    Yeah.. Im on Mutante at -120. I think there is value on him.

    He has showed a great fight IQ lately. His skills were always up there but his chin was not. Guy has to have one of the worst chins in UFC. But I dont think Elias is the guy to crack it.
     
  6. iGnP Silver Belt

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    I agree with you on Browne being a bigger favorite but if he were upwards of -150, no way I would bet him. There's just enough value on him right now as a slight dog for a small play
     
  7. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Just watched tape on Mutante/Theo. I favor Mutante by a pretty wide margin. Elias just spams kicks and circles, with nothing behind his kicks, which also come in pretty slow. Mutante has shown improved stand-up, especially his defense and countered Hermanson's kicks nicely in his last fight, either with a straight left or a TD in the second. Unless Theo catches him with a front kick, which are normally telegraphed, I don't see how he touches Mutante's glass chin. I think Mutante pieces him up on the feet and can use takedowns to mix things up. Probably a pretty big play for me, want to see his dec line as well, because for how little I thought of Elias's game, he does have a lot of heart.
     
  8. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Theo reminds me of Paige VanZant the way he kicks. He looks like he's dancing with his damn spirit fingers haha. But just like PVZ he outhustles people too and tries to set a pace.

    One thing is I need to get a good scope of how the judging will be scored in Canada in case we get some whack ass hometown decision.

    Just to add:

    10-8's are being handed out like Costco samples these days. Even though I think Cezar wins he's still always a candidate to get rocked and it usually looks bad.
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2017
  9. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    True, but VanZant at least closes the distance and tries to cause damage lol. That Theo/Alvey fight was awful...slow kick, circle, slow kick, circle, fake kick, circle....That shit won't fly with the new scoring..
     
  10. impressivegoal White Belt

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    I guess I'm in the minority that likes BB here. I was on BB his last fight and he definitely gave his backers a scare. But then again, his ability to quickly flip the fight was part of the reason I was on him.

    What was refreshing were his comments post-fight, he was really disgusted with his performance. Like he answered every one of Joe Rogan's questions with self-disgust and (call me crazy) I do expect a better performance this time around. Also, I just don't rate Browne that much at all.

    I plan on re-watching their last fights again though.
     
  11. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What up my ninjas? Everyone make it out alive last night? Sorry I didn't get to spend time in here but hopefully a few people made some good coin! After that Anthony Hamilton debacle I absolutely needed a killer night and I got one. +75 units for a +200% ROI

    I'll try and read through the thread from last night to see how people did. I'm sure there was a lot of chaos regarding Anderson and Holly but I thought that they were fine of my decisions. Close but not robberies like I've been reading some places.

    I had an absolute perfect night.
    Here's how I made out:

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    Top of the leaderboard for UFC 208 <Goldie11>

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    MMAGamblingTips.cappertek.com
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2017
  12. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Goodfella..quick thoughts on Mutante/Theo and Hendricks/Lombard?
     
  13. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I believe that Hector Lombard blows Johny Hendricks out of the water early in the first round. Johny has been competing at the most apathetic level of any top ranked fighter I can remember in sometime. He's had a precipitous fall off ever since USADA and going up to MW to tangle with the brick wall that is Hector Lombard is just bad news. Hector is JUDO BB and his takedown defense is absolutely impenetrable. Meanwhile, he has bricks for hands and his former nickname of "Lightning" fit him much better. That as he is able to put a blitzkrieg attack on his opponent and have them wake up with a flashlight in their eyes before they know what happened. My only concern is the Lombard is he's bit long in the tooth. However, he hasn't taken much damage so this isn't a case of Big Nog versus Cain Velasquez or some shit. Stylistically this is about the worst match up I can imagine for Johny at this point and I believe that he gets starched early.

    As for Cesar new and Elias, and I actually think this is a favorable matchup for the Brazilian. Because the "Disney Prince" doesn't have power in his hands and that is the one area the Caesar has long had trouble with us. Theo is just a fundamentally flawed fighter who has been getting by on above average athleticism and a sticky grappling attack. Cesar is just as strong as Fabio grappling for better. What's more, the ability of a traditional martial arts striking from Cesar should help him win a kick boxing match if it stays standing. However, if the fight hits the ground I like Cesar to use is BJJ black belt and top control to rack up points or lock up a sub. The one area that you do have to worry about with Cesar is his gas tank. Therefore, you might put a flier on Elias r3 and look at the over 2.5 prop.
     
  14. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Pending how Johny looks in weigh ins, sig/AV bet on that fight? I'll take Hendricks
     
  15. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    I don't think we even need to worry about his chin against Theo. His TKOs in the UFC took a comical amount of time to finish. Both about 2 minutes of light gnp against a completely gassed Westcott and Narvaez with a broken arm. He has three KOs pre UFC, 2 were from retirement and the other was his first fight
     
  16. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    y'all feeling the Esparza ML or the Esparza/Markos O2.5?
     
  17. AmericanBeauty Blue Belt

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    I have Lewis/Travis over 2,5
    Hendricks
    Elias
     
  18. AmericanBeauty Blue Belt

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    and i also have Paul Craig
     
  19. HumbleCoco Yellow Belt

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    Been looking into newcomer Mazany who is coming in versus McMann.



    Quick summary of the interview is that Mazany is an ex-figure skater who got into MMA after her brother started BJJ about 7 years ago. She has had a 3 year lay off before fighting in 2016, which according to her was due to not finding fights and a torn labrum that required surgery. She got the fight being a training partner of Miesha Tate at Extreme Coutre and Miesha gave her the call (apparently she's looking to manage fighters FYI). It's at 3 weeks notice, but nothing she said sounded like a red flag for the cut, although she was eating a steak dinner at the time of the call, and has fought at 145 in the past. She also refused to say how she thought the fight was going to go.

    As for her fights, the one in 2016 showed her charge forward, a few punches and then straight into a takedown off the cage, then a quick mount and a proolllongged beating of her opponent on the floor, I think it's safe to say she doesn't have concussive power. (Available on FightpassTM) I also found her TUF fight in 2013 against Pena. She did show some nice balance and TDD early but Pena did ultimately get the takedown and rode her out for the rest of the round, and again in the second with even less TDD. General tape review shows she isn't a complete WMMA bum, and has nothing glaringly disgusting but there's very little available of her very small 4-1 record (including TUF).

    Nothing is giving any major warning signs and I feel McMann should be a safe play. While it's become apparent McMann doesn't like getting hit, in her last outing vs Davis that just motivated her to whip up a slick arm triangle to end the adversity. She also has a ferocious boxing game she's been developing and if Mazany does have Miraculous TDD against Davis she will still be at major risk on the feet. The only hole in McMann game is IMO is her work off her back, which Miesha has exploited to edge out that majority decision. Maybe the ex-training partner has given that to Mazany as a gameplan to pursue? While there isn't anything to say Mazany has a decent chance, there's nothing looking awful either, maybe if the odds get out of control it will be worth a WMMA underdog flyer but definitely expect to lose it.

    Personally though, I think McMann is only improving and there's little to muster up the underdog pick. I will probably be parlaying her with Meerschaert once I review that (get your bets in now before favorites become even more juiced in this new world of MMA betting) but I think there could well be value in the finish but there's no way that's a given and maybe Mazany has more to show. My pick is McMann KO R1, the overexited debutant will charge forward again and meet a heavy counter from a McMann who always wants to get in some of her developing striking early. Plus I really want to see some KOs after fucking 208.
     
  20. trucido Blue Belt

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    Hendricks, BB/Browne o1.5, Bearjew, and Browne are my current plays. Really like the odds on over 1.5 in the main event, I don't see BB getting an early KO here
     
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