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UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 30, 2017.

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  1. trucido Blue Belt

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    Never mind Paul Craig fights at 209
     
  2. HumbleCoco Yellow Belt

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    Still researching but in an interview with Meerschaert he says that Felder is doing this camp at Rufus Sport. I can't think of a worse fit at a major camp for Felder, someone who suffers with relatively low fight IQ and poor ring craft should not train at Rufus Sport. If you're hoping for a new type of Felder, don't.
     
  3. lawmills2006 Purple Belt

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    Agree to a tee. More a fade play on post USADA Lombard than anything else.
     
  4. pytycrys Purple Belt

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    I would not bet against Zahabi. He's Firas Zahabi's brother who is arguably the mastermind of MMA Training. He will surely come with a good fighting plan.
    However, I would go with over 1.5 rounds at -200.
    It seems like we are in the world of overs.
     
  5. rille31 Brown Belt

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    did anybody watch tape on firas junior?

    how are his takedowns and grappling, reginaldos tdd/bottom game is pretty poor and he constantly loses position going for that arm in guilotine and he doesnt offer much offense from his back


    edit: some videos of his mma fights and also some nogi and wresling comp











    some footage of his last fight, skip to 3:26



    grappling looks solid





     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
  6. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    2-4 on my picks last event, tough event for me, should have been 4-2 as I thought Nover should have gotten the DEC and well we all know how robbed Brunson was.

    On to this event now. time to break down tape and check out some of the unknowns. I like Cesar so far as a confident pick, will do more of a breakdown later in the week.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
  7. AmericanBeauty Blue Belt

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    The one who was robbed was me.
    I had 5 fights correct but the fucking judges gave the fight to germaine de randamie.
    That cheat ugly hoe
     
  8. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Alessandro Ricci

    -34 years old
    -10-4 (5 kos) mainly all lo-mid end competition, soon as he got to a guy with more decent Ws, lost
    -MT style fighter
    -credited with being a teacher level grade in MT

    Last few fights here:




    Last ufc fight here on short notice
    https://www.ufc.tv/video/jeremy-kennedy-vs-alessandro-ricci-ufc-fight-night-maia-vs-condit

    Few other cliff notes about him, he was considering or retired a while back @ 34, he also claims he has accomplished everything he wanted in his fighting career but always wished to get into ufc and make a run at the title. He got that call in his last fight, claims he is always in the gym and ready.

    Strong kicks and good work in the clinches, but having watched felders last few fights this is a match up that favours him directly, felder won't need to worry much about grappling or take downs and ricci does not move as fast or athletic as say pearson. Explains felders current line also.
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
  9. rille31 Brown Belt

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    are you aware that germaine outlanded holm?
     
  10. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    2-4 on my picks last event, tough event for me, should have been 4-2 as I thought Nover should have gotten the DEC and well we all know how robbed Brunson was.

    On to this event now. time to break down tape and check out some of the unknowns. I see some value in Cezar here.
    I actually thought Germaine won that fight, Holly was throwing but missing quite a bit, just like in her last fight.

    Brunson fight on the other hand, that was a complete bullshit robbery.
     
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Someone tell me why i shouldn't bet Cezar big without bringing his chin up please?
     
  12. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    I am on Cezar as well, bet him the last two fights and plan on betting on him again.
     
  13. Ukram Silver Belt

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    cliff notes:
    -discusses in detail with his slight name change
    -short notice past fight discussion
    -getting jitters and ufc bugs out the way
    -discusses his emotional state and how he was very happy to get into ufc
    -says wants to stay off the cage this fight and not get pressed again, maintain better positions
    -wants to show case his striking skills
    -improving his mma skill set
    -has a good boxing coach in Angelo reyes
    -sparing with kevin lee
    -trains out of extreme coutre
     
    Last edited: Feb 13, 2017
  14. HumbleCoco Yellow Belt

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    Think I've seen enough of Meerschaert and Ryan Janes.

    Starting with Janes, he has nice shot selection and good output, little in combination but picks off well enough as range to land sustained damage. His defence however is far behind his offence. Tall for division at 6'3 he stands very straight, if people get past the jab they can land fairly hard. Berish managed this several times early in their last fight before flagging in the second round. The other concern is the takedown defence, the gassed Berish still managed them in the third, albeit didn't have sustained control to steal the round. Stann (who always has great tidbits from his pre-fight interviews) mentioned that Janes wasn't scared of the ground (many subs to his record) but wanted to get there on his terms and that lack of wrestling technique and confidence showed thorough, and might again vs Meerschaert. He calls a second round Sub from his interview despite this, and also likes Tom Segura and Bill Burr, good dude. One thing I was surprised to discover is that he's 35! Thought of him as the younger prospect comparing records but Meerschaert is only 29!

    Meerschaert is a long standing veteran of Rufus Sport, a lot of his peers are apparently high on him but it's taken him a long time to reach the UFC. His calm and composure really shined in his debut. His offence doesn't have the output of Janes but has sting on his punches. However, like Janes he has some deficient defense, some of the backing straight up defence so prevalent in Rufus Sport. One worry I have is that he does that straight into a headkick which Janes flashed a few times in his fight, as he backs and turns to the left but he's never been KO'd in his career. One thing that I really liked to hear was how much tape watching he's done according to his interview, he obviously can see many of the standing defense problems of Janes and calls a KO in R2, which is quite reasonable to believe in. However, perhaps a easier path of victory to exploit Janes on the ground, I am very confident the takedown will be there for him and he certainly has shown slick transitions to snatch subs. It's not out of the question that he gets caught himself but I have good faith in a 33 fight veteran winning mostly my sub has the cohesive ground game to avoid it, he's essentially faced similar levels of fighters as Janes for a good long while now at the upper levels of the regional scene.

    In conclusion, Meerschaert is in a good position to take the win but it's not airtight, the odds are perhaps too steep but I like him above many of the similar favourites on the card. He is a fairly consistent finisher as well, so maybe the value will be there Meerschaert ITD, the really safe play might be just ITD alone. However, I am still taking him, Janes is lacking some the dynamism to make him a real risk and I feel confident that Meerschaert knows how to form a strong gameplan, after this long arriving to the UFC, I don't think he wants to be sent packing. I'm going to agree with Meerschaert here with a R2 finish, but I feel its more likely he finishes with a submission after either man has enough standing. I've parlayed him with McMann, see my previous breakdown for the reasons why I feel this is a reliable double.
     
  15. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Ricci training vid

     
  16. ivanilich Green Belt

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    Will Cezar's TDD hold up? IIRC Elias grinded his way to the TUF title.
     
  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I watched Cezar's last three fights and no one tried to take him down, but his tdd is 100%. Elias td's are not very good - Santos easily avoided them. His td success sits at 29%.
     
  18. daggen Blue Belt

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    Elias is in my top 3 for boring fighters in UFC.
     
  19. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Ryan Janes
    -35 years old
    -9-1 (7 subs and 1 ko)
    -bjj black belt
    -fav sub move rear naked choke
    -grappler

    Really hard to source his fight vids



    Last fight here
    https://www.ufc.tv/video/ryan-janes-vs-keith-berish-ufc-fight-night-lewis-vs-abdurakhimov

    Considering his ji jitsu and grappling background he looks like he likes to stand and bang also, don't think his style has changed too much judging from his last ufc fight and the 2015 vid I posted above, likes to pressure opponents and move forward mixing in his boxing and leg strikes, likes trips during clinches (not seen much wrestling) likes to look for chokes and rear naked chokes.

    Could be said also his opponent in Meers has 7 submission losses but his last choke type losses were few years ago.
     
  20. molest Purple Belt

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    Elias can probably outbox Cezar, i mean he is a striker? If they had a kickboxing match he would probably win, even Moraes was giving Cezar troubles, Cezar mostly wins by being super lanky and the opponent not closing in because of fear of the takedown.

    Firas is really good at putting up a gameplan which will counteract Cezar freakish lenght, anyone knows about Elias counter wrestling? if Cezar cant put him on his ass i dont see how he wins.

    I liked Cezar as an underdog but im not laying juice on him as a favorite in Canada, but idk you think Cezar can land takedowns?
     
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