UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax

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molest said:
Elias can probably outbox Cezar, i mean he is a striker? If they had a kickboxing match he would probably win, even Moraes was giving Cezar troubles, Cezar mostly wins by being super lanky and the opponent not closing in because of fear of the takedown.

Firas is really good at putting up a gameplan which will counteract Cezar freakish lenght, anyone knows about Elias counter wrestling? if Cezar cant put him on his ass i dont see how he wins.

I liked Cezar as an underdog but im not laying juice on him as a favorite in Canada, but idk you think Cezar can land takedowns?
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no way his standup is horrible and mutante will be much faster.. elias is like the male version of holm and pvz :D
 
Not seen theo do much boxing usually just sticking his hands out to retain distance between him and his opponents just so he can spam out leg kicks. Did see a vid on tuf fight few years back where he was dealing with a wrestler and he got taken down but he had poor wrestling and take downs at best it was all poorly set up and he gassed out.

I suspect theo will be working on take down defence much this camp but will need some interviews and vids on that info.
 
Quick thoughts regarding Felder/Ricci. This was made as an action fight, pure and simple. Both will fight to their strengths, and therefore neither will have their weaknesses exposed. There is no way I can see a play on Felder ML at current odds, he might be better than Ricci standing but without having consistent power, he'll most likely be around for the entire fight to mess up. He has the ability to push Ricci to the fence and test his game on the ground, just like he did to pull out the win vs Cruickshank, but I'm not sure he wants to do that to his brand and Ricci has been training that actively according to the interview from Ukram. No method of victory feels hugely more likely than another, and most of it depends on what improvements Ricci may or may not make. It's probably decision but I think the line is unlikely worth it judging by the over.

Ricci as an underdog is something you'll have to judge for yourself, he looks pretty poor on tape. Easily backed up and nothing too interesting to his game. However, a couple of things Ukram missed from his interview is that he's got a great boxing coach in Angelo Reyes, training at extreme coutre and sparring with Kevin Lee and generally sounds like he's taking all the right steps to develop and fill the faults in his game, not just teaching at his own gym. Especially like him mentioning he's growing his understanding of lines and angles, which was probably a giant gap in his overall game. Saying all the right things and doing them all is completely different however and he's not young at 34. It does make me feel that the line is even more off than it should be, but it could be a bit like Lentz and Mak last weekend where the level of skill is just too much even if the opponent looks game the whole fight.

Is the line off? Yes. Have I seen anything on tape to make me think Ricci has a good chance of actually winning? not really, no. Do you really love underdogs and think Felder is overrated? Maybe play Ricci by decision.

Otherwise just let others parlay the fuck out of Felder by name value and enjoy what could be a fun fight.

EDIT: did post a video of Ricci but Ukram already has, they're not pretty.
 
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molest said:
Elias can probably outbox Cezar, i mean he is a striker? If they had a kickboxing match he would probably win, even Moraes was giving Cezar troubles, Cezar mostly wins by being super lanky and the opponent not closing in because of fear of the takedown.

Firas is really good at putting up a gameplan which will counteract Cezar freakish lenght, anyone knows about Elias counter wrestling? if Cezar cant put him on his ass i dont see how he wins.

I liked Cezar as an underdog but im not laying juice on him as a favorite in Canada, but idk you think Cezar can land takedowns?
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Elias doesn't box he spams kicks. Mutante is pretty low volume but he is very fast twitch. His kickboxing is solid but he stopped using it for fear of getting knocked out. However, you saw in the Joker fight his confidence has come back as he happily kickboxed all round one, and he out struck the Joker easily.

Cezar has the best blast double in the game. His td success is 69% that's fuckin high. He is also excellent at hitting takedowns off kicks. Guess who spams kicks non stop...
 
HumbleCoco said:
Quick thoughts regarding Felder/Ricci. This was made as an action fight, pure and simple. Both will fight to their strengths, and therefore neither will have their weaknesses exposed. There is no way I can see a play on Felder ML at current odds, he might be better than Ricci standing but without having consistent power, he'll most likely be around for the entire fight to mess up. He has the ability to push Ricci to the fence and test his game on the ground, just like he did to pull out the win vs Cruickshank, but I'm not sure he wants to do that to his brand and Ricci has been training that actively according to the interview from Ukram. No method of victory feels hugely more likely than another, and most of it depends on what improvements Ricci may or may not make. It's probably decision but I think the line is unlikely worth it judging by the over.

Ricci as an underdog is something you'll have to judge for yourself, he looks pretty poor on tape. Easily backed up and nothing too interesting to his game. However, a couple of things Ukram missed from his interview is that he's got a great boxing coach in Angelo Reyes, training at extreme coutre and sparring with Kevin Lee and generally sounds like he's taking all the right steps to develop and fill the faults in his game, not just teaching at his own gym. Especially like him mentioning he's growing his understanding of lines and angles, which was probably a giant gap in his overall game. Saying all the right things and doing them all is completely different however and he's not young at 34. It does make me feel that the line is even more off than it should be, but it could be a bit like Lentz and Mak last weekend where the level of game is just too much even if the opponent looks game the whole fight.

Is the line off? Yes. Have I seen anything on tape to make me think Ricci has a good chance of actually winning? not really, no. Do you really love underdogs and think Felder is overrated? Maybe play Ricci by decision.

Otherwise just let others parlay the fuck out of Felder by name value and enjoy what could be a fun fight.

EDIT: did post a video of Ricci but Ukram already has, they're not pretty.
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good stuff adding your points to my b/d, probably won't stop people parlaying or playing felder ;)
 
Look im looking to fade Felder but i don't think this is the spot to do it. Felder has had a pretty tough run since his been in the UFC, and Ricci is a step down from the opposition he has been facing. Trinaldo's the only person to beat him rather easily, the Barb fight was very close and the Pearson fight could have gone either way. He also showed against Cruick he will go to the ground if need be. He is a bit juiced tho and im just trying to work out who I'm going to parlay and whether I include him or not.
 
pytycrys said:
I would not bet against Zahabi. He's Firas Zahabi's brother who is arguably the mastermind of MMA Training. He will surely come with a good fighting plan.
However, I would go with over 1.5 rounds at -200.
It seems like we are in the world of overs.
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Thats a silly reason not to bet against him. Firas coaches plenty of prospects who take a 'prospect loss'. Just cause this guys his brother doesn't mean hes above that, especially when watching tape he doesn't look like anything special at all.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Look im looking to fade Felder but i don't think this is the spot to do it. Felder has had a pretty tough run since his been in the UFC, and Ricci is a step down from the opposition he has been facing. Trinaldo's the only person to beat him rather easily, the Barb fight was very close and the Pearson fight could have gone either way. He also showed against Cruick he will go to the ground if need be. He is a bit juiced tho and im just trying to work out who I'm going to parlay and whether I include him or not.
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smfh if you play Felder at these odds
 
McMann over 2.5 + Felder over 2.5 pays just over evens. Its not sexy but it really should hit.

I will probably play McMann r3 as she is apparently a finisher now...lol

May also stab Felder r3. R3 props act as a pseudo hedge in case finish occurs early r3.
 
lookin at over 2.5 esparza markos -325 and over 1.5 -170 Lombard Hendricks

parlay pays +108
 
Taleb +240 at bet365. Hammer him and I think I can cash out some money when his odds rocks down
 
Some of Jacks older fights


ko loss here:


Last fight HL reel here:


Looks good at catching leg kicks and then trying to take guys heads off, some nice boxing shown at times (all against low end guys though) Maybe a dog play......especially if spicely did.
 
Joseph Budden said:
I'm on Ricci at +275 for 1.1u.

This is going to be a close fight. The way I see it is Felder is the more athletic guy, and might be able to hug on the fence due to being physically stronger and solid experience in that area recently against guys like Trinaldo and Burkman. But Ricci has serious value. He is likely going to throw more volume, Felder is a great style for him (guy who is likely to stand in the center and doesn't have very good footwork), I think his fight IQ is higher, his accuracy is higher, and his defense is better. I'm actually really impressed with Ricci's defense, hes not a guy whos easy to land a powerful shot on at all.

I can't believe Felder is this juiced, and I pray no one in here is going to play him loll. I'm not expecting a big difference from ml to Ricci by decision when the over is -270, but i'll consider adding if there is. Felder is not going to have an easy fight at all here, I think this reeks of split decision and I like Ricci's chances of squeeking it out via cleaner shots landed and likely more volume too.
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idk.. felder is almost always overpriced and almost always in close fights, even when you expect him to starch someone... but i'm not impressed by ricci. someone against whom felder actually has the speed edge.. but hey, i guess it's dog or pass, right? i'm just leaning pass at the moment. also, felder is stupidly tough. might wanna look at ricci DEC when that's out vs just his ML
 
EzFlyer said:
idk.. felder is almost always overpriced and almost always in close fights, even when you expect him to starch someone... but i'm not impressed by ricci. someone against whom felder actually has the speed edge.. but hey, i guess it's dog or pass, right? i'm just leaning pass at the moment. also, felder is stupidly tough. might wanna look at ricci DEC when that's out vs just his ML
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Considering the state judging is in nowadays it's probably not a bad idea to bet the dog when it's likely to go to a decision.
 
EzFlyer said:
idk.. felder is almost always overpriced and almost always in close fights, even when you expect him to starch someone... but i'm not impressed by ricci. someone against whom felder actually has the speed edge.. but hey, i guess it's dog or pass, right? i'm just leaning pass at the moment. also, felder is stupidly tough. might wanna look at ricci DEC when that's out vs just his ML
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That was the plan, think I mentioned in that post though I'm not expecting a big difference when the over was -270 and Ricci basically always wins by dec. So I just took the moneyline.

cCrown said:
Considering the state judging is in nowadays it's probably not a bad idea to bet the dog when it's likely to go to a decision.
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Yes, especially with the things I noted in my breakdown. Ricci will probably throw more volume, and I think his fight IQ and accuracy could lead to him landing the cleaner strikes. If he even comes close to accomplishing those two things, than i'm more than happy with my play on that steep dog price.

I'm not expecting anyone to think Ricci will go far, but idk i'm really liking this spot. Even if Felder wins, I feel pretty strongly about this being a close fight
 
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