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UFN 107 - Manuwa vs Anderson - London

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 6, 2017.

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  1. ElChapoInHisPrime Green Belt

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    side note: I'm kicking myself for foolishly blowing a 6 fight parlay last night by throwing in Tim Means -190. Should've known better than to bet on an immediate rematch of a NC when Cowboy dropped him in said fight. :mad:
     
  2. iGnP Silver Belt

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    Anderson gets hit a lot. Not sure how a lot of you are confident in him
     
  3. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    Worth noting:
    Manuwa's losses: Gus and Rumble

    Anderson's losses: Gian Villante and Shogun.

    You can call the Shogun fight a robbery and maybe it was. The fact is at the time Shogun was 2-4 in his last 6, 3 of those losses were by stoppage, and he dropped Anderson twice.
     
  4. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Fair points for sure. I would say with a young guy like Anderson part of becoming a legit contender is fight IQ and implementing a gameplan. He gets hit when he stands with guys who can strike. And Jimi can. If Anderson thinks doing anything other than implementing a grappling heavy gameplan right from the start is a good idea, he is absolutely in danger of getting KO's early.

    I plan to hedge my action on him (I have him at +115) with Manuwa rd 1 and possibly rd 2. I'm also on the o1.5. I'm think Corey has learned from the Shogun fight (even though he really got robbed there) and will look to grapple right away. Will be a good indication of whether he's growing and learning or not.
     
  5. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    Do you think Anderson wins by stoppage on the ground? I can't see Anderson implementing a 100% wrestling game plan for 25 minutes... it is just too hard.
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Not sure. Anderson has shown great cardio, but in 3 round fights. You make a good point in whether he can show it over 5 rounds. There's guys with that type of GSP-esque cardio that can grapple for 5 rounds but we don't know for sure if Corey is one. I think he could break Jimi on the ground possibly. I'm not sure just how good Jimi's gas tank is either. If Corey is beating him up on the mat and Jimi's cardio fails him at all then yeah a stoppage is pretty likely. Seeing if there's really good odds on Corey rds 3, 4, 5 may prove a good idea.
     
  7. KeystoneKannon Yellow Belt

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    Yeah I dig that. It will be just as hard for Jimi as it is for Anderson I suppose.
     
  8. t6p Brown Belt

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    Anderson looked different to me in his last fight against O'Connell. He not only really played to his strengths by getting the fight the ground asap, but he also showed a level of aggressiveness once he got O'Connell down that I hadn't seen from him before. I think that split loss to Shogun may have been an important learning experience for him. I'm expecting to see much more killer instinct from him moving forward.
     
  9. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    In terms of cardio taxation from grappling:

    Getting takedowns when you have to really work for them is super taxing. Defending them is too, but not as much. So if Corey is struggling to get TD's and Jimi is defending them well, making Corey work, getting back to his feet and making Corey chain wrestle again, etc. then it's possible we see Corey start to tire.

    Once the fight is on the mat, it's WAY more taxing trying to defend off your back than it is to hold someone down and gnp them or look to advance position, etc. If Corey has Jimi on his back for an extended period of time and is constantly making Jimi defend gnp that's gonna sap Jimi way faster than Corey.
     
  10. piglord Black Belt

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    yeah khabib means is going to haunt my nightmares for quite some time.
     
  11. Obsidian Fracture No sunshine when it's on

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    How I see the main event.

    Manuwa:

    Strengths:
    Fight ending KO power in his punches, knees and kicks. Lightning fast strikes, importantly his leg kicks as well.
    Good at defending on the ground and scrambling to his feet.
    Good in the clinch against the cage.

    Weaknesses:
    Easily taken down.
    Chin that can be cracked.
    May not have the gas tank for 5 rounds, particularly against a takedown heavy gameplan.

    Corey Anderson:

    Strengths:
    Good takedowns, good recovery after being hit hard, young fighter that could improve as he ages and solid cardio.

    Weakness:
    Very hitable, if his legs get taken away from him his whole style is compromised (see the Gian Villante fight).

    Conclusions:

    Manuwa can land the big shot at any point, particularly early in the fight, he can take Corey's legs away from him with fast leg kicks. Knees in the clinch or while defending a takedown are also good weapons for him.

    Corey may he able to grind Manuwa down with a grappling heavy gameplan for the win.

    Not sure which way to go on this one, leaning towards the Corey bet simply because he is paying +215 at the moment, will have to think about it.
     
  12. ElChapoInHisPrime Green Belt

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    Surely if we're betting on Corey we're throwing in the ITD prop as well right???
     
  13. piglord Black Belt

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    corey ko is +350, which is the same as his dec line. to me that is crazy, i think he's got a much better chance of stopping manuwa with strikes in a 5 round fight (he never wins via sub) than scoring a decision with positional control.

    i'm going to hit that prop for sure.
     
  14. JDB Brown Belt

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    I need to review tape but I'm guessing:

    Corey via TKO middle/late rounds.

    Or via points.

    Jimmy wins via KO or not at all, the man has horrid gas.

    I like Corey at 2.20.
     
  15. ElChapoInHisPrime Green Belt

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    Insane...
     
  16. HeDucking Im so Groovy Banned

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    I really dont rate Breese at all, he looked like a killer in the beginning but I think if Holy Angel is +250 or better, imma play him.
     
  17. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Just an FYI as the sherdog event page and this threads OP dosent mention it:

    Co-main event is now Jouban vs Gunnar Nelson.

    I definitely favor Gunnar, but I would hit Jouban at anything over +200, or maybe even less, but I can really only see him beating Gunnar Story style which is hard to pull off and Gunnar is an ever improving finisher.
     
  18. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    lots of girl/girl stuff, plenty of free streams, keeps the cock shots to a minimum, and lots of cuban girls.
     
  19. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    oh god is this guy still at it? these 2 are confirmed the same person, I can bore you to death with my interactions with this peabrain but I suspect it's similar to your own. geeeesh Luca is def an involuntary celibate and/or on the spectrum.
     
  20. MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    just curious...where did you find this? compile it yourself or is this stuff available online?
     
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