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UFN 107 pbp/discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Mar 18, 2017.

  1. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Everyone has a different appetite for risk. I don't have any kids and I started seeing opportunities in MMA betting. Had some extra cash lying around so dove in. As for "ego", everyone has one. Most of the banter and posturing here is purely for fun and I do enjoy it.
     
  2. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I feel like the few opportunities to where I really could have taken on a lot more risk and made large amounts of $ have come and gone. I had way less $ at those times, but also a bit less responsibility (ie, I didn't have a daughter). I made big bets relatively speaking for my BR on those fights, but in hindsight I knew the lines were so far off I should have just "went for it" so to speak. GSP/Hughes 2 was the first one. I had GSP at dog odds and heavily favored him to win. Hughes/Gracie was just a silly spectacle, and Hughes was only like -250. I capped him like -1000 or more. Bet him big, just not what I should have. Couture/Toney same deal. Toney had almost no chance and I knew it. But didn't unload like I should have. At the time of those fights I was happy with my winnings, but now looking back I think "5 figures on that Hughes vs Gracie fight would be a no-brainer, like stealing..." (I think I maybe made $700 or so on that fight all told--I know I had Hughes in a few parlays so not sure exactly the amount to attribute to that specific fight).

    I just don't see giant mistakes by the books like that anymore. Am I nuts in seeing it this way? Maybe it's my way of justifying keeping my bets at the levels they are at, but I don't think so. I think the golden age of taking advantage of poor line setting in MMA is gone.
     
  3. TB12 White Belt

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    I agree on the better lines being set now. I believe I had +1000 on Frank Mir by submission over Brock Lesnar in the first fight on sports book.com. Regardless of how you feel about the Mazzagati reffing job, finding lines with that kind of value is becoming few and far between
     
  4. OneWarrior1 Brown Belt

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    You just have to adjust with the bookies. Right now the trend is juicing hyped up prospects like Lando since bookies know parlaying is the trend now. At this time, it's all about dog hunting. Also totals are being set at 1.5, 3.5 instead of 2.5, 4.5.
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Must have been a different book? I had an acct there and they've never offered props.
     
  6. TB12 White Belt

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    Definitely possible I've had a bunch through the years
     
  7. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Good point. Finding overhyped prospects and getting a sweet line on their oppenents prop for their most likely path to victory is a great strategy these days. I still don't think it compares to the horrible lines some books used to set, but there's still value out there.
     
  8. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    What advice did give Pickett anyway? I couldn't hear it. Though I am still fucking crushed by that and I haven't let a "L" bother me for more than a couple hours in a very very long time LOL it's just that if Pickett had that sewn up tighter than Frankenstein's face and a win equals me up like 30 units more than what I made. We're talking the difference between $10,000 and $3000. And it was right there on a fucking silver platter.

    But as bad as I feel I can only imagine how bad Brad feels. His retirement fight at home, up 2-0 and ba-boooom!! He's starched with seconds left in the fight. He must be absolutely beside himself.
     
  9. TB12 White Belt

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    I remember making good money on that couture toney fight as well but I remember being a bit nervous on it. I had to keep reminding myself that this was slower fatter Toney. The lights out Toney from when I was in high school was fast and had insane power. I don't think Randy would have fared as well.
     
  10. TB12 White Belt

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    I am too old to sit through another lesson on bankroll mgmt Pickett cost me about 3grand. Not in earnings but bankroll. I doubt I would have hedged being up two rounds but I couldn't have anyway. I committed to taking my kids to the movies and whenever I would even check my phone it would light the theatre up like I was sending a rescue me beacon signal out to the heavens. I could have thrown up in my 12 dollar popcorn.
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Agreed about some having large egos. Sometimes I wish those guys would die the most painful death and also get cancer

    Luckily humble gamblers like myself, @Officer_Brown @MMA Gambling Expert are here to provide elite posts without any ego
     
  12. TB12 White Belt

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    Jesus is that the order too? Like they have already started dying a painful death as is...and then you drop the bombshell on them that they ALSO have cancer? What a shit day these big ego people are having. I like the way you think sir.
     
  13. Barkus Brown Belt

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    Some people get a gold watch for their retirement, Pickett got brain trauma. Rough night indeed.
     
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
  14. Barkus Brown Belt

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    I used to rent VHS tapes from Blockbuster to watch the early UFCs. Damn, I'm old too.
     
  15. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    GOAT post
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Between r2 and r3 mike brown told him to stop going for td's...
     
  17. weedreference Green Belt

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    Saying 'the books' irks me. The books themselves have very little effect. It's one guy (Kalikas) setting the opening line, and then the market moves it to a more reasonable price if he misses the mark. The lines are getting worse because the guys who max the openers are getting sharper.

    The only thing the books do is continuously adjust the line so they can freeroll both sides.
     
  18. Officer_Brown The Cuck of MMA betting. Look at my pretty face. Banned

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    Pickett hurt me A LOT too. It would have been so nice to go the holiday with a huge winning. 3,2K stiff winning down the toilet and dude was 2-0 up. If Pickett was 0-2 behind and got headkicked I'd blame myself and my shitty betting skills but Brad was winning easily and then he let that headkick through. Since then i'm telling myself everyday that Pickett bet was the correct side. He wins that fight 8-9 times out of 10. Same thing with Barboza/dariush. I bet Barboza there but feel ashamed I didn't feel happy about that at all... dariush was winning the stand up exchanges. Tbh if Pickett and Vera fought again I'd bet Pickett again! ! !
     
  19. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Gotta move past it dude. It will happen again it's part of betting on MMA. Go watch Kampmann Alves i was big on Alves (well big for me then). That was an even worse body blow! At least with Pickett it was nervy the whole time standing. Alves was in cruise control every second of the fight with Kampmann.
     
  20. TB12 White Belt

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    Kampmann/Alves...Another perfect example of me counting my money before letting the final seconds tick away. Heartbreaking. Though not as heartbreaking as the special evening in which Diaz losing to Condit cost me a 10,000 dollar parlay closing.
     

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