+110 on Alvey is very tempting, I favour him to win against Leites. Alvey isn't a great striker, he's not a great grappler, he's not a great athlete but he presents a difficult match up for a lot of guys. Alvey has 85% TDD, he's only taken down three times in his UFC career, twice by Andrews in 2014 and once by Marquardt in his last fight. Despite not being a great athlete or wrestler, Alvey's TDD is very good, I doubt Leites will have much success getting this to the ground.
Alveys problem has always been his output, this is because he chooses to be the counter striker in every fight, sometimes he spends to long waiting to find his shot and this impacts his output. Alvey has slow plodding footwork, he likes to exchange from boxing range and he rarely throws kick.
Leites looked good when he returned to th UFC in 2013, he went on a nice run, he beat decent opponents and looked impressive doing so. Leites in now 35 years old and he turns 36 this year. After the Bisping fight I saw a decline, he looked like trash vs Mousasi, his wrestling was ineffective as he went 0/10 on TD's lol. He gassed badly after the 1st round and did nothing but eat jabs for 15 minutes.
Leites bounced back vs Camozzi, he able to expose Camozzi's weak TDD and grappling. Camozzi was a great match up for Leites and Camozzi just isn't very good.
Against Jotko, Leites looked ok in round 1, however in round 2 he was a dead man, badly gassed. Leites went 1/8 on TD's in that fight, his only TD coming in the 1st round. Jotko actaully ended up out grappling Leites in that fight because Leites was so tired.
Like Jacare vs Whittaker, the key here is TDD. Here's whats gonna happen. Leites will be fresh and strong in the 1st, he's going to push Alvey against the cage and try to work his TD's, Alvey will defend, perhaps he'll give up one or two TD's but he's going to force Leites to work and exert himself. Come the 2nd round I expect Leites to gas as he always does when he struggles to get TD's. Alvey will begin to take over and I expect him to either finish Leites or win a clear 29-28 decision.
Alvey has made improvents over the past couple years, he's much for effective with his style of fighting and he has improved his output, Leites is clearly declining with age and maybe he's missing something else too.
+110 has still kind got me on the fence, +120 and I'm in.