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UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

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  1. Polarize Green Belt

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    I'm not so sure that Sandoval will easily control him, Schnell is very agressive on the ground + big reach/height edge.

    Font is way better than Sandoval and much bigger, Schnell had no bussines against him, UFC debut+short notice, fighting outside his division against somebody like Font is a sure lose.
     
  2. edole Brown Belt

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    Who are my Sig Bets on the Sandoval/Schnell fight with again?

    Let's confirm and hash out the details.
     
  3. t6p Brown Belt

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    Hit Moreno NSC +230. Also small stab at Moreno ITD +1224 (his sub line is +700 right now). Both are way off IMO.
     
  4. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Pull out now while theres time
     
  5. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Schnell rd 3 at +1325? I'm kind of thinking he has the better gas tank, and has multiple ways to finish late (either stuffing sloppy TD's from a tired Sandoval, or catching a sub if a tired Sandoval gets lazy in Schnell's guard).

    Also looking at Holtzman rd 3 at +925 and Alvey rd 3 at +1950.

    I think I'm gonna put tiny amounts on these props and then a tiny RR with them for a potential huge payout.
     
  6. Jamah Green Belt

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    Schnell r3 odds +3300 (bet365)
     
  7. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    OMG elite bettor, where do I sign up?
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Are you f'ing kidding me? That is just pure insanity. How could anyone using that site NOT hit that prop?
     
  9. JDB Brown Belt

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    Probably just bandwagon jumping.
     
  10. Jamah Green Belt

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    I'm going to hit that and also Alvey r3 odds +2200
     
  11. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Because I #StoppedGuessingStartedWinning, betting round props is guessing, I've honestly never bet a round prop in my life. You'll never see an elite bettor like Gamblou betting round props.

    #DontMessWithSuccess
     
  12. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    When you consider betting both sides, then you probably shouldn't bet a side at all. A lot of that going on with these match ups:

    OSP vs De Lima
    Ray vs Lauzon
    Ortiz vs Moreno
    Penne vs Taylor
    Alvey vs Leites
     
  13. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    davis
     
  14. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Sigh. Capping is capping. You assign what you believe are the probabilities of outcome x and then compare that to the odds being offered. I can't believe I'd need to explain that to a #elitebettor but I guess I do.

    Now, obviously there's probably more variance in choosing round props. Which is why it makes sense to be more selective and bet them very small.

    Attempting to lecture me on this stuff is #farfromelite. Please know you are barking up the wrong tree here, I've been doing this too long to suffer silliness like that.
     
  15. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Gamblou.com = Game Changer

    St. Preux -155 vs. De Lima +145

    De Lima is used to being the larger more powerful man in the Octagon in his fights and against OSP he’ll surely be the larger man as he missed weight by 5 pounds! Missing by that much and weighing in as early as he did is a ‘Cowboy’* move that we feel is unfair and cheating for the fighter is saying, ‘to hell with being a professional and making weight….I’ll give up purse money in order to hold advantage as I don’t want to tax myself to make weight’. This unethical move is unprofessional and should cost the fighter more than simply money. Meanwhile De Lima who is an aggressive dynamite fisted flogger for four minutes and a slow, stagnant statue after that will need to tag Ovince early of he’ll be completely exposed to the more athletic, better conditioned fighter. Provided St. Preux has learned from past performance and provided he realizes that he must weather De Lima’s early onslaught this fight should turn his way late in the first round as the Brazilian slows and OSP throws. If the ‘Sunday shots’ from De Lima don’t find their mark early and this fight gets to the second round it will be OSP that will hold advantage for he’s the more conditioned fighter who should be able to drag De Lima to the deck and mash his mug into the mat. OSP opened -270 and has been faded to the current value opportunity that is -155, we released this yesterday the moment De lima wallowed to weigh-in..

    St. Preux -155
     
  16. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Completely agree with Lord Gamblou. At -155 OSP is a #sleeperbet and his opening sub prop line at +900 in unquestionably this card's #mayorofvaluecity
     
  17. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

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    Gamblou is inspiring me to play OSP.
     
  18. JDB Brown Belt

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    Lobov
    rd4 KO 51.00
    rd 5 KO 67.00

    Lobov is younger and fresher than Cub, he finished that last fight much fresher, with zero gas issues IIRC.

    It's worth noting, Cub has not been 5 rounds since Nov / 22 / 2014 (pre-USADA.)

    Cub might fade in those later rounds there could be an upset. xD
     
  19. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    I actually think this is the second most likely scenario for the outcome with them being

    JD x TKO 42%
    JD x DEC 28%
    Eddie x TKO 10%
    Eddie x DEC 7%
    JD X SUB 10%
    Eddie x SUB 3%

    All give or take ~

    Quick cap
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Want to guess how many times De Lima has gone to rd 2 in his last 10 fights? Exactly once. He's kill or be killed, Gamblou is right about that. De Lima will do what he does and come full bore at OSP. He'll either land and finish, get starched himself, or get taken down and pounded out or subbed most likely.

    Fight does not start rd 2 is about the same price as OSP here. (-165). Not sure why we wouldn't expect this thing to be over quickly one way or another.
     
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