1. The official Sherdog Store is back! Check it out! » Discuss it here! »

UFN 108 - Swanson vs Lobov - Nashville

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 1, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. PuertoRican Gold Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    16,406
    Likes Received:
    2,087
    You're doing a 1 month sig bet with @Stunna77.

    You and I have a bet as well: I change my sig for 1 month if Schnell loses, but you have to rejoin our Sherdog DraftKings events for 4 events in a row if Schnell wins (1 month's worth of events).
     
  2. wack3d Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2006
    Messages:
    14,863
    Likes Received:
    0
    lol wtf :eek: take my money
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    16,987
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    In front of the TV waiting for Game of Thrones S8

    Yeah, I understand the concerns, but Ryan Benoit is not anywhere close to as good a fighter as Dustin Ortiz is. What's more, Ryan doesn't possess an nth of the wrestling ability of Ortiz. When have you ever known Dustin to engage in a boxing match. He is consistently in his opponents face grinding the shit out of them against the cage or else putting them on their back and working them over. We're talking about a guy who was able to beat top-notch grapple/wrestlers and high level fighters like Makovsky, Borg, Scoggins while hanging tough with A level guys incidentally Benavidez, Jussier and Reis.

    Moreneo is a MASSIVE step down in comp.
     
  4. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    sounds good.
     
  5. cagebrain Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,284
    Likes Received:
    16
    At -155, yeah I actually like OSP as a small play. Nothing huge because he can't be trusted. I parlayed him with Cub -3.5

    My main play on the fight is the under. Got it was the absolute LOL price of -125 (thanks @EzFlyer !!). Now it's -265. #valuecity #peaklines #timing
     
  6. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2017
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yeah Ryan Benoit is one of the worst flyweights in the UFC but Moreno out matched him everywhere, can't believe that was a split. Can't believe Ortiz vs Mach was a split either, thats Canada though.

    My biggest fear for Ortiz is him not being able to get the TD's or hold Moreno down, because if he can't he's going to be lost on the feet, the range will be very troubling for him.

    Just a really hard fight for me to cap because of the unknowns of Moreno, but from what I've seen he looks very good.
     
  7. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2017
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    0
    Damn, that Moreno money coming in, tempting me on Ortiz.

    More Ellenberger money coming in too.
     
  8. cagebrain Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2013
    Messages:
    2,284
    Likes Received:
    16
    hit Ortiz. I am with @MMA Goodfella on this one, i think he should be -200. Moreno's tdd and grappling will be exposed in this fight. He is too green.

    Also, just take Moreno NSC its +175. (i got +210) theres almost no chance Ortiz finishes him, this line should be flipped #LOL #valuetown

    I hit Moreno ITD it was +1180 but now its back to +600 range.

    #dattimingdoe
     
  9. MMA Gambling Expert #1 Banned

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2017
    Messages:
    996
    Likes Received:
    0
    Yeah at -120 Ortiz would be tempting and it may get there but Moreno impresses me, it's hard to bet against him. Might be another split, Ortiz is constantly in close fights.
     
  10. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    40,284
    Likes Received:
    7,216
    Yep I hit those Moreno props but now Ortiz dec is +140 and I think it's by far the most likely outcome. Hitting that too.
     
  11. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2016
    Messages:
    1,163
    Likes Received:
    0
    Agreed, no way can you trust OSP as a -150-odd favourite. The way he quit against Manuwa. The way he just drifts to the scorecards seemingly unconcerned about the outcome of the fight. You can see his heart's just not in it.
     
  12. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,349
    Likes Received:
    75
    his brain and chin may not be in it after the manuwa near decapitation, and his war against oezdamir. red flags for me
     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    Exactly this. Morenos tdd and scrambling ability is unknown therefore i cannot be confident in ortiz i dont bet blind. Yes i think ortiz wins but no way i bet against someone who has unknowns especially when thats ortiz's only way to win.
     
  14. Antagonist88 Green Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2017
    Messages:
    1,207
    Likes Received:
    0
    Tempted to play Holtzman DEC now at +odds
     
  15. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    big or small cage tonight??????
     
  16. Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2016
    Messages:
    1,892
    Likes Received:
    0
    Location:
    Sweden
    I totally agree, I still feel good about my De Lima at 2.50 action.
     
  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,236
    Likes Received:
    0
    When did we last have small cage? Think its pretty much redundant now?
     
  18. piglord Black Belt

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2014
    Messages:
    5,904
    Likes Received:
    319
    Location:
    Sewers
    i'm only seeing +800 in europe, did you find better?
     
  19. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2010
    Messages:
    4,349
    Likes Received:
    75
    not noticed tbh, small cage tonight?

    don't blame you, think I'll skip this one though. might go small on some unders or itd bets just before it starts, and try and LB it. if osp grapples then it could be a good LB oppurtunity
     
  20. edole Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2008
    Messages:
    4,213
    Likes Received:
    21
    Location:
    TR
    [​IMG]
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.