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UFN 111 - Holm vs Correia - Singapore

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Mcgregorian, May 23, 2017.

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  1. quincy k Brown Belt

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    rdas style is to take a guy to the fence and overpower him.

    i dont think he going to have much success against tarc or any legit top 15 for that matter.

    there is a good chance that rda is the one that is going to have his back to the fence if it goes there. then if it goes stand-up, saff is the favorite
     
  2. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    RDA / Saff BD

    (Corrected LOL)

    I reposted this in case anyone skipped over my wrong labeled titular BD

    The former LW Champion had his career on cruise control throughout 2012-2015 winning 10 of 11 fights and absolutely slicing through his opposition like a hot knife to butter. In fact, the only blemish on the Brazilians record during that span is against Russian grappling juggernaut Khabib Nurmagomedov. During his championship run, RDA was hustling the 155 pound crown jewels of the division. Just beating on the likes of from Donald Cerrone, Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis among others..

    However, since USADA affect – coincidentally or not – a plethora of Brazilian killers have gotten increasingly less scary. Including RDA. Two straight losses later and now he's moving on up like the Jeffersons. Ready to try his hand as a welterweight now.

    Nevertheless, even though he's have a couple of setbacks, I'm not nowhere near writing his career epithet just yet. I mean, a bad performance against Eddie Alvarez and a competitive loss to the highly respected Tony Ferguson aren't career ending or even career plateauing performances. These fights should also be put into context. Alverez caught RDA with a short shot behind the ear that could have happened to anyone and Ferguson is a fucking animal.

    Additionally, it should be noted that RDA was having tremendous success against Ferguson and had it been a three round fight he would have won a clear cut unanimous decision. An eye-poke in the second round really began to change the tide.

    RDA is still a very good fighter and at just 32 years of age he can write an additional chapter to his mixed martial arts tome. Just off of skill and honorifics, the Brazilian gives himself that opportunity. As an elite level athlete, RDA he is a legitimate threat in all facets of the game. He is fast with his hands and has brutal LKs. He uses excellent footwork to box his man up from the fringe. Additionally he seamlessly transitions into blast double leg takedown and is stifling on the mat with a BJJ black belt.

    A longtime student of Master Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA,The former champion is now training in Singapore with Evolve MMA with a host of killers. This includes Beneil Dariush, Bubba Jenkins, Ben Askren and a stable of Muay Thai champions and legends.

    Ultimately if RDA was able to correctly put on muscle and still retain the speed and explosiveness he had as a LW then he could very well see a bit of a "Ruthless Robbie" esque renaissance of sorts up a division.

    Safie is a great striker whose kickboxing is superior to 90% of his opposition. What's more, he has stupendous TDD to allow him the opportunity to ply his craft. However, he continues to lose fights that he should win.

    For a bettor this is tormentingly frustrating because despite his skill set he just gives fights away with one of the worst fight IQs in the sport.

    Specifically I refer to his incomprehensible strategy of putting himself BACK against the fence after doing all the hard work to give himself striking space.

    In open space he is able to out strike just about every WW in the division. However, the problem is that he is almost exclusively a counter striker. This results in him continuously being on his back foot, having his opponent moving forward. He also spends lots of time languishing against the fence. This presents the perception to judges that he is losing the fight. Such is the reason he lost the DHK fight despite landing for more significant strikes. It is the Diego Sanchez and/or Leonard Garcia affect.

    Additionally, he doesn't commit to any strike. He never sits down on his punches to get his opponents respect. This allows them to stay right in his face without the threat of being finished. It looks bad to the judges and it means that as a bettor you are completely dependent on him winning a decision. He hasn't had a finish since 2010. He is not going to submit the BJJ Black Belt RDA which means he needs a TKO or decision.

    If RDA could survive the bombardment from Tony Ferguson and Safie hasn't put it in one away since the George Bush Jr. administration, I find it highly unlikely he he gets the finisher.

    As I was researching this fight, I was checking out some early pictures on RDAs Instagram. I'll post the photos below, but suffice it to say, he looks noticeably smaller than he did even as a 155 lb. fighter against Cowboy, Benson and Showtime.

    First photo (Top Left) is against Benson Henderson and the second was from this week in Singapore. Others are training pics from Singapore this past two weeks.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    In particular. Though it's hard to delineate from low quality pictures, he does look a bit soft in the midsection and his upper body has a "TRT-less Vitor" affect going on. Combine this with the fact that Saff used to compete as high as middleweight and this could be a real problem for RDA to deal with.

    The main reason that I even entertain such thoughts is because of the DHK tilt. We already know Saff has excellent defensive grappling and TDD is fantastic, but it was his offensive grappling and successful tussling exchanges with DHK that surprised me. Not only was he shutting everything DHK tried to do down, but he was getting the better of the clinch fighting against a Judoka black belt. A virtual octopus who has manhandled almost everyone he has locked horns with this side of Rory MacDonald and Demien Maia.

    Still, RDA should theoretically be able to put pressure on Saff and out-point him. Saff simply doesn't put any smoke on his strikes to dissuade the Brazilian from entering the pocket to engage.

    I do like RDA to get the victory here, but there's no way I can lay the juice with so many variables. In fact. I'm going to take a flier on the Saff via decision prop.


    PREDICTION: RDA be a decision.

    BET: Saff by DEC + o2.5
     
  3. rille31 Brown Belt

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    Dont think it will be much different from the bs weigh ins, both guys where propably pretty much hydrated after the real weigh ins
     
  4. thesharktank Brown Belt

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    Your two biggest locks on this card are a HW and Holly Holm. I do think the fear of big fav HWs is overdone and Tibura should get an easy win over a AA. Holly though has only ever impressed in 1 UFC fight and she has not improved one iota. That is not someone I back at 1.15 regardless of opponent. Scoggins, Jingliang, Tuck are all safer plays.
     
  5. quincy k Brown Belt

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    saff is also a good three inches taller

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  6. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    With two straight losses he said that he was killing himself to make 155 pounds. While he doesn't really have a great welterweight frame, he is a very fix that have a bone structured Brazilian Who is extremely dense. Sort of in the mold of a Rick Story.
    RDA thinks he'll have better gas at WW and I'm inclined to believe him.
    We are in a golden age of fighters beginning to compete in their proper weight class rather than starving themselves to be the biggest man in the division. Fighters were noticing that this was not only an unhealthy long term choice, but emaciating yourself on a Machinist like diet has diminishing returns after a certain point.

    Such is why we have a Renaissance of sorts in smallish fighters performing better than ever in a weight class above them ..Kelvin, Yancey, Whitaker, Cowboy, Means, Gamebred, Rumble, Lineker or just a handful of the notables reaping the benefits of floating in your proper weight class for a little and starve yourself.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    it was TL/DR (i didn't read it yet, hehe, at work etc.. i am waiting for a good long poop to read some of the stuff i might've missed!
     
  8. JDB Brown Belt

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    Holly is coming off losses which is a concern but for her to lose this she would have to fuck up pretty badly.

    And I didn't say I was going to bet on Holm, the price on her to too low.
     
  9. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    C'mon now, call up Bubbie or tante Flyer and have em' hook their beloved with some fibrous matzoh balls bro! It'll get the digestive track working and simultaneously provide a killer snack during the UFC fight night 111 twilight hours!

    LOL
     
  10. AmericanBeauty Blue Belt

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    That's the reason why i love the over in this fight.
    Over 2.5 or RDA by decision
     
  11. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Yeah, I didn't really get that either, it's just links to a bunch of random forum users speculating about it...

    Not to mention a lot of posters in that Reddit thread even said they thought he looked the same.

    And judging by the most recent weigh-in, he looks as in good a shape as ever. I guess that kinda ties in with that my post about Pudilova about how different photo's can make us look. The lighting was very scattered in that RDA beach photo, you're not going to have cast shadows that underline muscle definition, it makes a huge difference.
     
  12. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

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    You trust Gomi to survive 7.5 minutes?
     
  13. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i have a couple plays with tuck, so if he doesn't, oh well.. but yea, i think he can. half unit on that o1.5
     
  14. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Man I don't know, he seems like he may just be collecting checks at this point. Seems like as soon as a fight hits the mat he throws up the white flag. Tuck has power and also has slick grappling, at least when he is fresh. I think Tuck rd 1 is likely, played that small at +175.
     
  15. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Time to experience the life of a euro UFC fan. Work til 11PM, poker til 3AM, fights from 5:45 to 11AM, get a bit of sleep then back to work
     
  16. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    rda.JPG

    big line movement after i released my play on saff
     
  17. null Gold Belt

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    How is that possible anywhere in Euope for this card? UFN 111 prelims start at 4:45 am ET, which is 9:45 am UK time and later in the day the further one goes east in Europe.
     
  18. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    I'm in Canada, I just mean I get to experience what they go through having to stay up into the morning to watch live
     
  19. Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    Haha, must have a pretty crazy unit size if you're moving lines with 0.2u
     
  20. Bestonian Can't be assed with grammar

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    For a first time in ages I can actually start drinking beer at 2 pm and enjoy UFC instead of staying up till 5 am and being tired af only to go to work afterwards. Good luck.
     
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