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UFN 111 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by MMA Goodfella, Jun 17, 2017.

  1. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Why can't he? He Maia is getting close to retirement and probably will retire if he loses to Woodley. Additionally, he just dispatched the #11 fighter with relative ease. Not saying that it is a lock or even super likely, just saying that is not out of the stretch of our imagination.


    WELTERWEIGHT
    Champion : Woodley: actually believe RDA could pull this one off. Good boxing TDD and cardio
    1 Maia: this match cannot get made for the sake of RDA getting a shot LOL
    2 Thompson: as with Jorge really tough stylistic match up. Likely loses this one.
    3 Lawler: Is this UFC 2.0 Robbie or strikeforce merge Robbie? The latter loses.
    4 Masvidal: here is where it starts getting hairy. Gamebred tough stylistic MU still winnable.
    5 Magny: Believe that RDA would smoke Magney.
    6 Condit : With NBKs feeble tdd RDA could control him on the mat to win. 5 or 3 Rds. Matter here.
    7 Cerrone: murked him before and would be the favorite to do it again.

    Ultimately, just like with Michael Bisping it would take the right matches and some fortuitous fight happenings for him to get the title. But it wouldn't be more bleak than Bisping yet nonetheless he wears the strap.
     
  2. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Sorry I'm just getting back with you bro but have been busy as shit. You must have quoted that immediately because I realized my error instantaneously and edited it LOL i'm notorious for mixing up fighters ZIP Codes LOL
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    … Before anyone starts reading this know that I created a much more condensed version below for the TLDR crowd.

    Fedor/MH


    I realize that this is a long write up without a lot of in-depth technical analysis here, but I did try to hit all of the most pertinent aspects.

    First off, Matt Mitrione isn't called "Meathead" for irony. Now I'm not saying he's as dim as his moniker suggests, but as a fighter — which is all I'm concerned with — I do believe that he is riding the shot bus to training camp.

    Specifically, as a bettor, his fight I.Q. is wholly disconcerting. This is because you never know what to expect with him. Sometimes he will use his athleticism and fundamentals to great success while in other times he will eschew any pretense of strategy to just throw hands like a fucking drunken caveman. Fortunately for Meathead he is usually carrying the bigger club. Regardless, this type of behavior cannot be trusted with your money as a favorite.

    Ostensibly, putting your money on Meathead to fight intelligently is like putting your money in a bank that has an awesome interest rate but isn't FDIC insured.

    Let's just examine his inaugural BELLATOR appearance. Here Viacom and Scott Coker served him up unranked punching bag Carl Seumanutafa to make a big splash in his new promotion. However, the top brass most likely never anticipated that Meathead would go full Meathead and nearly lose the fight. Slinging leather with no hint of technique allowed Seumanutafa to absolutely pasta the new HW acquisition. Seumanutafa had MH in BIG trouble and came within a hairsbreadth of winning that fight. What's be honest, with a different referee Mitrione likely gets stopped.

    Now, while Fedor is a decade past his prime and as trustworthy for a win as a horse at a mob owned racetrack, he's still got a smidgen of magic in that old sweater. That is to say, even 60% of prime Fedor is a problem. I'd submit that it's as much a problem of Roy Nelson who flatlined Mitrione in one of these brawls. I'd also suggest that Fedor is more of a threat than the mediocre Seumanutafa who nearly did the same.

    So, Fedor still retains quite a bit of his blinding hand speed and he certainly retains the massive power which is always the last thing to go. What's more, he's also the far better grappler should this fight end up on the mat through a KD or TD.

    I'm not a Fedor nuthugger by any stretch of the imagination but still see a path to victory for the Russian.

    A lot of people write Fedor off because of the Fabio Maldonado performance, but I actually saw a silver lining in that ominously dark cloud.

    Let me play "Red Devil's" advocate for a second. In round one a 40-year-old fighter was basically hit by a train and — then for giggles — ran through a wood-chipper. Most people would have given up or at the very least not had anything left the tank to offer up any sort of a rally. However, Fedor demonstrated two things. The first being that he is not just fighting for a paycheck at this point and the second takeaway is that he is still quite fit.

    Indeed, a fighter must be in excellent physical condition to withstand a virtual fistic meteor shower like this for five minutes straight and recover to win the championship rounds.

    Moreover, after weathering the storm of the century Fedor came out in rounds two and three bouncing on his toes, was darting in and out of the pocket.

    Most noteworthy here though was Fedor's fight intelligence. He recognized that Maldonado's only real chance to win was to catch him in the pocket with a short hook. Ergo, the crafty veteran switched up tactics on the fly and implemented an "all the way in, or all the way out" approach the rest of the fight. He would sting Fabio at range while darting in and out of the pocket ripping off knees to the midsection. The ability to go to a Plan B when your Plan A isn't working is a great card to have in your pocket.

    Fedor has taking a lot of damage in the past few years although he has consistently remained competitive.

    I mean the only time Fedor was absolutely and inarguably outclassed was against Bigfoot Silva. However this was a Bigfoot who at the time was likely mixing a special proprietary blend of "Gummy Bear juice" in with his protein shakes for that camp.

    At any rate, Fedor still possesses good speed for a HW and those sledgehammer hands. Additionally, his quick/strong hips and Sambo credentials could see him getting that patented body lock TD from the clinch if they tie up. If Fedor is able to get on top I believe that it could very well be curtains for Meathead.

    Combine all those factors with Mitrione often performing like a he had a lobotomy before walking to the cage and you have this special inflection point where Fedor can pull off the upset.

    It's also of note to remember that even when Mitrione is fighting technically, he keeps his hands dangling at his waist. He relies on his innate athleticism a quick reflexes to bail him out. However, those upper extremities arms are 79 inches long and don't retract instantaneously. Having said that, can you really count on those 38-year-old reflexes to make their way back up to protect his chin before Fedor touches it?

    Look, I'm not silly enough to sink my money on this fight which is the epitome of volatility, but I can see Fedor landing that crushing overhand right for one more bow.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2017
  4. JDB Brown Belt

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    He beat Saffiedine on points (who hasn't beaten anyone in the UFC of note other than busted up Berger) in a lackluster fight and now you have RDA making a potential title run?!

    [​IMG]
     

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