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UFN 113 - Ponzinibbio vs Nelson - Scotland

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Rountree's game is very basic and Craig's game is pretty weird. If Craig just can avoid gettin ko'd, it could work in his advantage. I'm not sure though if he can fight smart even if he wants to. This will be a fun fight for sure.
     
  2. Cord White Belt

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    Dogs or not, the point is looking for value bets and anyone should stick with what works for them.
    Last weekend I made 23 units profit and most of that came from two dogs; Oleynik and Klose.
     
  3. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    God damn EZ, you just did a number on the poor cat who put all that together! This fits well within the criteria of a 10-a round — under the old rules!.

    ....but you are right, the chart is astonishingly superficial A lot of relevant information left unanswered.

    So basically a guy at Oddsshark spent six week knitting a Fedor-esque Winter sweater with a single loose strand of material behind that some jerk pulled on. Sadly, in 5-seconds the entire thing completely unraveled.

    Why you gotta pluck strands EZ?


    <Fedor23>
     
  4. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Regret not taking Ray when I had the chance, at -120 Ray was a very solid bet but pro sports bettor ZeesMMA shook my confidence when he put 4 units on Felder at +100

    ZeesMMA has now retired after a losing streak

    I'd be really surprised if Felder wins this, I can just picture Ray hitting him and then Felder looking really mad as usual while he plods forward and continues to get hit. Expect hometown decisions to be in effect too, if it's close it's going to Ray.

    It's almost like Felder has regressed, he's only had one great performance in the UFC and that was against Castillo, all his other wins besides Ricci have come through adversity.

    #1 pro mma gambler Luca Fury ruined Ray's line.

    Luca Fury > ZeesMMA
     
  5. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    Some of you guys trying to discredit that chart are missing the point and not even making good counter arguments, at the end of the day the favorites have been winning 70.8% of the fights this year. You can spin it any way you want to, but the favorites are winning at a higher clip then in 2016 for sure. Favorites won %63 of the time in 2016.

    And no EZ I would not put money on Janes no matter how high his line was to answer your question, because I think he will lose so why would I want to lose money. And this is no call out or finger pointing, but you have had some very unsuccessful events lately chasing dogs, it's a losing game in the long run, I don't know how you guys don't understand that. Parlaying two or 3 confident fighters you think will win is the way to go IMO. To each it's own though.
     
  6. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    Pro sports bettor @BigNick100 giving out invaluable knowledge, thank you sir for everything that you do.
     
  7. onC Blue Belt

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    You're probably just trolling, but Ill answer one more time.

    You're acting like MMA betting is some kind of weird special case in which plain math doesnt work. Like in every other sport, you cap the match (assign % chances for fighter A and B), and go on from there. Example, I think Janes wins here 22% of the time, and therefore +450 is a profitable bet in the long run. If it isnt, it's because I've capped the fight wrong, and not because simple math doesnt work.

    Every serious bettor should keep track of expected ROI (calculate with your % estimation) and actual ROI, and aim to make these two numbers meet in the long run.
    if
     
  8. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Calderwood by decision +355
     
  9. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    Man stop your troll job shit, it got old really fast. Go swing on Zee's MMA balls some more... Or wait, you can't anymore because he stopped capping because he is so bad.
     
  10. BigNick100 Green Belt

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    smh, you guys <{cruzshake}> I am done with this.
     
  11. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I think you guys think you are cleverer than you are. You cap Janes winning 22% of the time thats fuckin accurate can we get a decimal point on that too?
     
  12. Sapp Silver Belt

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    I'm pretty sure that was a hypothetical by him. Unless you're running an engine, theres no way to be that precise as a bettor.
     
  13. onC Blue Belt

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    Like I said, the idea is to try to make your estimations as accurate as possible and then compare your ROI to the expected ROI. So no, you cant do 10,20,30,40,50% etc LOL. When you've done this enough with good success (for example 112% ROI, 110.5% EV ROI), you can comfortably calculate the optimal bet sizing (using kelly for example).
     
    Last edited: Jul 16, 2017
  14. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

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    lol I'm not into capping to the % that I think a guy will win.

    That being said Janes +505 is a great bet. Marshman is not an elite fighter and Janes has a good ground game.

    I'm predominantly on the + money side today so maybe I'll lose my shirt, but maybe not...
     
  15. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Given how good Barboza has looked vs almost everyone in terms of striking (Ferg broke him with pressure but Ferg does that to everyone) I would say Felder's striking at least has the POTENTIAL to give almost anyone problems. Barb landed a lot of good body kicks but that was a pretty close fight and Felder had his moments.

    Of course, Felder's issue is and continues to be his lack of volume in fights that stay standing. He has good technique, above average speed and power, and a great chin. But he's content to head hunt the one-shot KO. That spinning backfist KO of Castillo may honestly have been a curse for Felder. He's the typical case of the guy who has a ton of skills, but doesn't have any idea about how to win rounds (at least in stand up fights). The issue I have is betting a guy like Ray at current odds just doesn't make sense. I can see the guys who got Ray at evens, but not now. Felder does have the capability of taking Ray down, which is kind of a wild card in this fight.

    I'm still not sure how to play this one.
     
  16. Sapp Silver Belt

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    How are people feeling with Nash vs Roberts?

    I tentatively like Nash's value here.
     
  17. timmyclax22 Green Belt

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    Anyone on Henry straight up?
     
  18. Antagonist88 Green Belt

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    Everyone who ignores the principle of value is essentially just saying "Fuck logic, my gut is way smarter than all that."

    And there definitely aren't countless mathematical arguments to say THAT's a long-term winning strategy.
     
  19. Yotsuya Brown Belt

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    Felder has the skill and athlethism to win, if he has the right mindset/gameplan, but without it he will most likely lose. Ray's success depends on Felder having his usual problems of low volume etc. I hope it will be pretty apparent after round 1 if Felder can take this, and if not, with big nsc-hedge it should be easy call to change sides livebetting. Felder is not good at adapting, so he probably will keep losing the fight if he loses the first.
     
  20. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah that's too specific obviously for me. I mean, if someone else wants to try to say they can actually cap to a specific percentage, fine by me but that's kinda crazy.

    Still, the overall point is still valid. This isn't to bash @BigNick100 because his philosophy may work great for him. But for me (and others based on what I've read) it's not about "chasing dogs" or "parlaying favorites that I really think will win". It IS simple math. And you don't need to nail it down to a specific % to make it work.

    What I do is use ranges. Generally 10%, sometimes 15%. Let's use Felder/Ray today as the example since I just posted thoughts about that fight.

    I missed Ray at -110. At open, I think there was slight value there because I believe he should win this fight 50-60% of the time. Which obviously means I give Felder a 40-50% chance of winning. So using a range like that, you can sort of figure out what you want to do. If you want to be conservative, use the low estimate for each guy (so 50% for Ray and 40% for Felder) and figure out where the odds are in relation to that. Felder at +164 has SLIGHT value based on my capping of his chances using my most conservative % chance of him winning. (+164 equates to his implied probability of winning being 37.88%, so if I think he has AT WORST a 40% chance of winning, he's a solid bet).

    Same thing goes for props, it's just figuring out a % range of how likely you think a given prop is, and comparing it to the odds and the implied probability they represent. As was mentioned, this is FAR from a guarantee of being profitable. Because if your capping is off and you assign bad %'s to outcomes, it doesn't matter in the long run because the value you perceive was never real.

    I know you already know all of this, but it seems like sometimes there's people that post here that don't get it.
     
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