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UFN 113 - Ponzinibbio vs Nelson - Scotland

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jul 8, 2017.

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  1. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    When was the last time a fight was +600 to go to a 3 round decision?

    Rountree Dec is also +1351...

    I already have u1.5 -150 and rountree +100 etc.. I alrdy have rountree rd1 in a buttload of round robins..

    But these #'s are pretty tempting...
     
  2. TheOneTrueKing 4th most under appreciated tipster @betmmatips

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    long term study on closing odds on betfair found the markets to be v accurate. over large samples dogs win at the right rate as do favorites. so over a large sample a +400 or a -400 will be right. over a sample size of 1 they can be wrong. looking at trends of favorites or dogs winning is like looking for patterns on roulette. if a chart is showing favorites are best to bet this year then obviously the sample size is too small to be accurate
     
  3. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    We've been over this stuff enough.

    Anyone who doesn't believe in math/probabilities can't be reasoned with.
     
  4. Cord White Belt

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    Is the future already determined? I believe not. I believe the outcome of a fight sits in a quantum state until the result is known. Thus I made a bet on Nelson because I thought his line had value. But I would have done a bet on Ponzinibbio if I thought his line had value (i.e. anything from 3.50 in his case for me).

    One who does not believe in non-predetermined outcomes, one who believes there is one and only one possible outcome, these people would bet in a different way ("Nelson will win so no matter what Ponzinibbio line is I will never hit that").

    Maybe this sums it up.
    None of the approaches necessarily results in a winning or losing strategy, and both have pros and cons.
     
  5. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    tough FOTN choices today. taking tiny stabs at seery-pantoja +750 (seery brings it even when outmatched and it's his retirement fight) & henry-teymur +950 (henry one of the scot's on the card and i think it's gonna be a banger)

    would've maybe taken a shot on jojo-calv, but jojo missed weight. i guess they could give it to them and give calvillo the full 100k, but meh
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I threw Roundtree dec in a tiny RR hail mary with 3 other really unlikely decisions. Like, $5 investment and if somehow all 4 hit pays over $3k. Roundtree dec, Janes dec, Calderwood dec, Gunnar dec.

    Ya never know LOL...
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    oh i have a few of those types of things, lol. calvillo rd 3, henry rd 3, smith rd 3, etc lol.
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    I did Henry/Teymur too, but honestly kinda regret it. I don't really like any of the odds LOL. It's only .15u so whatever.
     
  9. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    .15u for me, too, lol
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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