Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 23, 2017.
UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till
OCTOBER 21, 2017
Ergo Arena | Gdansk, Poland
Darren Till +125
Donald Cerrone -165
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135
I'm ok with Cerrone -165 but pass for now for hopes of Till hype
I put the 1.65u down. May be some hype on Till but the public loves Cerrone too. I'll add if it drops a lot. Feel like he's going to be way too dynamic for Till and just needs to avoid the big left hand early
1.65u cowboy. kinda a movement-bet. i'm not sure how i feel about the fight; i'm kinda buying the till hype to an extent. but at the same time, i know this is a step up.
it's (probably?) gonna shift a little. but then juice might go down.
4u Cerrone -166
Hard not to heavily favor Cerrone here...Cowboy doesn't deal with guys pressuring him too well, but Till is low volume and hasn't shown much killer instinct even when his opponents clearly are hurt. I think he's a great matchup for Cerrone.
Exactly. And what if Cerrone shoots a double and gets Till down?
The counter (devil's advocate?) Is: while till is fresh, his distancing, tdd etc all look great
That's true but the fact that he likes to fight at the same distance as cowboy is huge IMO. I think Cowboy is much more diverse and hard to read etc.
I actually think this is a tough fight for Cerrone. Till is not slow and plodding like the 170ers that Cowboy looked so good against. Good boxing/movement gives cerone problems.
I will bet Till when he hits +200 after all this early money goes on cowboy
i might switch over at that point. idk. i also think 5 rounds favors cerrone, however. till looked good in rd 3 against bojan, granted, but still. he's shown some slowdown in the past. big step up here.
Yea. The 5 rounds should help cowboy
Btw Cerrone didnt look great against Lawler but the medical issues he had leading up to that fight must have had an impact.
I actually think Till might be a tougher fight than Lawler
Till's volume might be an issue and so too his cardio over five. I also don't like that hes fighting so soon hes a huge WW cuts from like 210. But hes a damn sniper and I think hes dropped his last three opponents five times between them. He's also young and hungry and has huge self belief. Can't fault you guys betting Cerrone at current price. I was expecting Till around +200. I'm just gonna sit back and enjoy this one i think. It's kind of a weird main event but i love this fight. I've bet Till in his last two fights and really enjoy watching him fight.
Smashing Cerrone at -175. I think this ends up in a similar result as Cerrone/Jury.
Till Dec +645? Kinda like it...
Talked myself into maxing the +645 till decision. Something is off here.
How is till Dec +645 and till itd +244? He's not finishing dudes well below cowboy's level... Lawler way more potent finisher and cowboy rolled with those bombs pretty darn well just lat fight...
Cowboy in the distance or either guy via decision.. none would surprise me. I actually think if till paces himself and doesn't get finished, he has a solid shot of getting thr nod with the judges. Dude is so good at controlling the distance etc
Heads up, the prelims start at 11:45AM EST
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