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UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Sep 23, 2017.

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  1. Rebel_LioN Silver Belt

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    Then by all means make your money playboy. I just wanted to know the reason why he's favored like he is, I got my answers.
     
  2. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Frankenstein would probably give Pie a hell of a fight. Might even beat him
     
  3. piglord Black Belt

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    does andre fli have yet more new tattoos? why is he spending his time in the tattoo parlour when he should be spending every waking moment fixing those holes in his game?
     
  4. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    lol I doubt it

    I'm going to bet Piechota, after looking into it more I'm even more confident he wins this fight, he should be -300
     
  5. Zee's MMA Subscriber Green Belt

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    gamblou.com


    Cerrone -150 vs. Till +130

    Till is a big strong future challenger to the Welterweight Division but every young fighter needs their diploma in how to navigate grizzled veterans in five round affairs. Till thinks he’s ready (see Kevin Lee) and he’s planning on showing Donald ‘after one punch’ that Cerrone has chosen poorly. Moving straight in on Cerrone for the kill (a recipe that has worked prior) absolutely will not work for Till (the Cowboy ain’t stupid and is not going to just stand there and trade early) and trying to play counterpuncher is simply not Till’s game for he is a one dimensional fighter at this point in his career and we have not even addressed his cardio.

    We see Till get countered and pieced up by a much more savvy, weathered veteran early then in about round three we’ll witness Cerrone absolutely taking this young Englishman apart. Just like Lee needed to graduate into the top ranks so too will Till who’ll go out without any thrill.

    Cerrone -150
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yep. The reality is that the variance DOES come out pretty even in the long run. But the psychology of it is a huge hurdle for a lot of would be pro gamblers. Human nature seems to be that the crushing bad beats are more vividly remembered than when it happens the other way around. Why? Simple. Because every bet we make (at least for significant sums) we feel like we are SUPPOSED to win. We put in the hours capping. We know our stuff. So we believe we are going to win.

    And I'll clarify that. All of us know that we can't or won't win every bet. BUT in a vacuum, we think we'll win an individual bet (assuming close to even odds on the event we are betting). Otherwise, why would we bet it right?

    So when a fluke play happens at the end of the game that costs us our bet, we capped it right but were robbed by a fluke. If a fluke happens that WINS us our bet, we still capped it fine but other "flukey" stuff happened during the game that hurt us and the one that won it at the end was just things evening out.

    Rare is the person who can psychologically handle big swings in a BR that they rely on as their sole income.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ok. i've been wrestling with it all week, but i'm drinking some till kool-aid. i just am. i hope it's live bettable, because i do have concerns about his cardio in rds 4 & 5, but i thoroughly believe he'll get the better of cowboy for a couple rounds. i do. i think he's better at controlling the distance and he's more explosive. he's probably in big trouple if cowboy is able to make it a grappling match at times.. and again i'm concerned w/his gastank, but...

    i am flip-flopping from my opener play on cowboy. i did it as a movement play (which didn't work out) and i'm switching to till for a couple units. i still have till dec +645 and i've sprinkled on cowboy rd 4/5 at +1200 +1600 ish on bm.

    hope it's live bettable, tho, lol.
     
  8. Sadistics Brown Belt

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    Why the confidence in Lansberg?
     
  9. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    No lol about it. Frankenstein nearly pulled of a big upset over a highly touted hype job last time out.

    You've been given multiple examples by multiple posters why some of us think -200 on pie is just to high. No lol here. Real reasons to be cautious
     
  10. SBJJ Steel Belt

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    Officially on Till
     
  11. piglord Black Belt

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    i'm on till and i might go large if i'm having a good night.
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Those that defy Lord Gamblou will have their bankrolls sent to eternal damnation
     
  13. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    I don't get the Till belief. Cowboy has 15 better wins than his best. Before Cowboy's 2 latest losses, this statistically was about as much of a mismatch as Mighty Mouse vs Borg.

    Losing to Masvidal + Lawler deflates Cerrone's stock out of the elite conversation, but it doesn't offer much hope that Till can beat him. Even the close loss to Lawler is better than Till's best win.

    Cerrone's only opponents in the last 23 fights who are as weak as Till's average opponents are Makdessi + Noons. The other 21 are all tougher. And if you throw out the guys who are clearly > Till (Lawler, Mas, RDAx2, Pettis, Diaz), Cerrone is 15-0.

    That's 15 wins in a row vs opponents approximately as good as Till. Fucking 15 in a row. Yet the markets are saying that Till has a 40% chance of winning.

    People will argue that Till is up and coming at 24 and Cerrone is past his prime at age 34. But MMA fighters normally peak around 32-- Cerrone is much closer to prime and Till is at an age where great fighters are few and far between.

    And Till doesn't even have a clear matchup advantage. He can't even finish his shitty opponents, so it's fairly unlikely he will finish Cerrone. This is problematic when Cerrone finishes about half of his opponents and has a clear cardio advantage.

    And if Till can't win early, and he can't win the late rounds, how the fuck is he supposed to win? I am sure there is some way it happens, but there's no way there's a path he can reach 40%+ of the time. No fucking way. This line is insanity, and I have not heard a single good reason why Cerrone isn't the best bet of the weekend.
     
  14. streetSub101 White Belt

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    I see Länsberg geting the edge standing and in the clich, Länsbergs style and experience will neutralise Ladds standup style, if Ladd gona get the TD she have to shoot. Länsberg hits hard so ladd cant move forward with here armaturer like boxing style, and Länsberg is hot
     
  15. Card Silver Belt

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  16. iGnP Silver Belt

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    he's gonna wipe the floor w Artem imo
     
  17. lifeisgood12345 Purple Belt

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    Probably the most mindblowing part of the Till line is that he was -180 vs Velickovic 7 weeks ago. And now he's +135 vs Cerrone.

    Cerrone would be -1200 vs Velickovic. That's an asston of Till faith based on one good performance vs a turd.
     
  18. iGnP Silver Belt

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    i have officially switched sides onto Cowboy now. i havent bet the fight, though. i think ill be betting cowboy itd and fliers on rounds 3-5
     
  19. Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    i agree with all of this i just cant see all the love for till. The only angle i see is the unknown fact that based on who he faced we really cant get a grasp on how good till really is and this fight is exactly that test. I see a lot of people saying that cowboy is overlooking him and never watches tape on his opponents but who knows if thats really true. Cerrone has had a pretty damn good career so far so whataever he is doing is working. I think more than anything till is the one who is overlooking cerrone.
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    pulled the trigger on blachowicz +140. can he be taken down and laid on and lose another decision? uh, yea. duh.

    but he's a LEGIT full weight class bigger (big 205 vs clark who i maintain should be (and has been) 185)... has a solid striking edge.. dude was outstriking gustafsson, forced gus to wrestle...

    he's not gone the distance with way better guys. he's ko'd better guys. (latifi, etc). he's hometown. also, even tho blachowicz does gas, i think clark slows down, too. and going to poland i don't expect that to change. and clark's chinny.

    summary:

    +money
    hometown edge
    size edge
    striking edge
    chin edge

    i'm in.
     
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