UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

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I really dont see Cowboy losing this, he could have won the Lawler fight and Till is on a much lower level than the guys thats been beating Cerrone. [email protected] and Ill live bet more after the first.
Playing devils here but. We dont know for sure that till is on a much lower level than the guys that cowboy loses to at this point its only a guess. Till hasnt fought high level comp yet but hes looked exceptional against the guys he has fought
 
http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-118-Cerrone-vs-Till-58753

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Hermansson is fighting Santos in Poland AND in Sao Paulo? The balls on these guys.
 
Playing devils here but. We dont know for sure that till is on a much lower level than the guys that cowboy loses to at this point its only a guess. Till hasnt fought high level comp yet but hes looked exceptional against the guys he has fought

That's true, we won't know how good Till really is until he proves it and Cerrone is a huge step up in competition for him. I know every fight is it's own entity, but I do feel like there are some parallels between this fight and a few other's we've seen recently where guys were maybe rushed into situations that they weren't quite ready for yet.

Two that come to mind immediately are Edgar vs Yair and Lamas vs Knight. Both of those fights put veteran fighters who had fought the best of the best against hot prospects who had looked great against mid-tier competition. In both cases the odds were fairly close like we're seeing again here (Lamas was actually at + money at one point, which was pretty crazy) and in both cases the veteran fighter dominated the fight.

If Till was a bigger underdog I could start to see the argument for betting him here, but at this price I think Cowboy is clearly the play.
 
That's true, we won't know how good Till really is until he proves it and Cerrone is a huge step up in competition for him. I know every fight is it's own entity, but I do feel like there are some parallels between this fight and a few other's we've seen recently where guys were maybe rushed into situations that they weren't quite ready for yet.

Two that come to mind immediately are Edgar vs Yair and Lamas vs Knight. Both of those fights put veteran fighters who had fought the best of the best against hot prospects who had looked great against mid-tier competition. In both cases the odds were fairly close like we're seeing again here (Lamas was actually at + money at one point, which was pretty crazy) and in both cases the veteran fighter dominated the fight.

If Till was a bigger underdog I could start to see the argument for betting him here, but at this price I think Cowboy is clearly the play.
Completely agree. I was suprised when they made this match honestly
 
... In both cases the odds were fairly close like we're seeing again here (Lamas was actually at + money at one point, which was pretty crazy) and in both cases the veteran fighter dominated the fight.

At what point you consider odds to be fairly close? According to your post it should be around 1.70 (odds Cerrone / -141) but I find 1.85+ 'fairly close'. Just to know how the forum thinks about this I hope for some answers :)
 
At what point you consider odds to be fairly close? According to your post it should be around 1.70 (odds Cerrone / -141) but I find 1.85+ 'fairly close'. Just to know how the forum thinks about this I hope for some answers :)

Opinions will probably vary on that, but IMO -150/+150. That implies a 60%/40% win probability which in my mind is fairly close.
 
Held new opponent is Nasrat Haqparast

Just watched his fight vs Ruslan Kalyniuk. Kalyniuk dominated first half of round 1 on feet, Haqparast legit had no answers for his standup. Then he started taking down Kalyniuk at will and beating him with his ground and pound until finally finishing him in round 3.

Looks like Haqparast has legit zero grappling skill-- he could have taken the back whenever he wanted and never went for it. And his standup may be worse than Held's. If his plan is to ground and pound somebody with Held's grappling ability, he's probably getting submitted in round 1.

Hopefully Held opens reasonably cheap due to losing streak. Haqparast has no chance of winning this at age 22 with no meaningful MMA experience and an extremely limited skill set.
 
Just watched his fight vs Ruslan Kalyniuk. Kalyniuk dominated first half of round 1 on feet, Haqparast legit had no answers for his standup. Then he started taking down Kalyniuk at will and beating him with his ground and pound until finally finishing him in round 3.

Looks like Haqparast has legit zero grappling skill-- he could have taken the back whenever he wanted and never went for it. And his standup may be worse than Held's. If his plan is to ground and pound somebody with Held's grappling ability, he's probably getting submitted in round 1.

Hopefully Held opens reasonably cheap due to losing streak. Haqparast has no chance of winning this at age 22 with no meaningful MMA experience and an extremely limited skill set.
His answer for Kalyniuk on the feet was perfect. That dumbass Russian literally kept rushing him with 100% energy and power. Pretty smart to stay defensive and eventually hit the easy td after dumb Russian worse himself out.

Really hard to grasp much from that fight just cause Russian is so dumb, but looks like someone Held should beat.
 
His answer for Kalyniuk on the feet was perfect. That dumbass Russian literally kept rushing him with 100% energy and power. Pretty smart to stay defensive and eventually hit the easy td after dumb Russian worse himself out.

Really hard to grasp much from that fight just cause Russian is so dumb, but looks like someone Held should beat.

I see your point, but even after Ruslan gassed he kept taking the fight to the ground. He seems clearly more comfortable on the ground than on his feet. I'd be shocked if he came out with a level of standup that enables him to hold his own vs Held.
 
I see your point, but even after Ruslan gassed he kept taking the fight to the ground. He seems clearly more comfortable on the ground than on his feet. I'd be shocked if he came out with a level of standup that enables him to hold his own vs Held.
Yeah why not though? Idk if hes suppose to be a striker, but its not like the dumb Russian stopped being aggressive. He was just gassed and the tds got easier and easier. Its seriously hard to say anything about the feet because there is 0% chance Held pulls a dumb Russian and immediately rushes this guy with nonstop 100% power. It makes a big difference.
 
Yeah why not though? Idk if hes suppose to be a striker, but its not like the dumb Russian stopped being aggressive. He was just gassed and the tds got easier and easier. Its seriously hard to say anything about the feet because there is 0% chance Held pulls a dumb Russian and immediately rushes this guy with nonstop 100% power. It makes a big difference.

You are right that there is no proof that he is bad. But I believe it is more important that there is no proof that he is good.

He is a 22 y/o late replacement who has fought nobody, and in 12 minutes of footage showed no skill other than ability to take down the gassed Russian and pound him out.

When Held was 22 he already had 12 pro fights and beat Patricky Pitbull. And now at 25 he is even better, and in spite with his tough recent losses he did look mostly good vs Lauzon and Hadzovic.

I see this as a good opportunity to buy low on Held vs an opponent who may be his softest matchup since he was 19. Or Nasrat may surprise and be as good as Hadzovic, in which case Held still probably wrecks. And in the top 1% scenario, the kid is a future star already as good as Lauzon/Jansen/Sanchez who Held still deserved to beat 2 of 3 and has matured since.

So if Held is only -400 or so, how can you not take a slice of that action? Do you really see a 22 y/o with no meaningful experience both defending Held's takedowns/grappling and dominating on foot? Maybe he has a chance of a lucky knee like Hadzovic but it's much more likely this is a replay of Werdum/Harris
 
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You are right that there is no proof that he is bad. But I believe it is more important that there is no proof that he is good.

He is a 22 y/o late replacement who has fought nobody, and in 12 minutes of footage showed no skill other than ability to take down the gassed Russian and pound him out.

When Held was 22 he already had 12 pro fights and beat Patricky Pitbull. And now at 25 he is even better, and in spite with his tough recent losses he did look mostly good vs Lauzon and Hadzovic.

I see this as a good opportunity to buy low on Held vs an opponent who may be his softest matchup since he was 19. Or Nasrat may surprise and be as good as Hadzovic, in which case Held still probably wrecks. And in the top 1% scenario, the kid is a future star already as good as Lauzon/Jansen/Sanchez who Held still deserved to beat 2 of 3 and has matured since.

So if Held is only -400 or so, how can you not take a slice of that action? Do you really see a 22 y/o with no meaningful experience both defending Held's takedowns/grappling and dominating on foot? Maybe he has a chance of a lucky knee like Hadzovic but it's much more likely this is a replay of Werdum/Harris

Easy answer. Because he's -400. And who the hell knows. Maybe the dark cloud over his head is still there
 
You are right that there is no proof that he is bad. But I believe it is more important that there is no proof that he is good.

He is a 22 y/o late replacement who has fought nobody, and in 12 minutes of footage showed no skill other than ability to take down the gassed Russian and pound him out.

When Held was 22 he already had 12 pro fights and beat Patricky Pitbull. And now at 25 he is even better, and in spite with his tough recent losses he did look mostly good vs Lauzon and Hadzovic.

I see this as a good opportunity to buy low on Held vs an opponent who may be his softest matchup since he was 19. Or Nasrat may surprise and be as good as Hadzovic, in which case Held still probably wrecks. And in the top 1% scenario, the kid is a future star already as good as Lauzon/Jansen/Sanchez who Held still deserved to beat 2 of 3 and has matured since.

So if Held is only -400 or so, how can you not take a slice of that action? Do you really see a 22 y/o with no meaningful experience both defending Held's takedowns/grappling and dominating on foot? Maybe he has a chance of a lucky knee like Hadzovic but it's much more likely this is a replay of Werdum/Harris
Theres no way i would pay -400 juice on a guy who finds ways to lose. Even if you consider it 'bad luck'
 
Where is my polish Sherdogbro Wiktoruspro?
Give us some special polish insider info please ;)
Hey man, during wife problems so I Got less time. (Divorce probably :( )
Inside info.. hm all I can say is that Piechotas ground game is fuckin legit. There are 2 things that worries me..
First his cardio
Second is USADA
Here in Poland we have no tests so anyone can eat what he wants.

If IT goes to Held than he trains at a club where some of the Best fighters left (for example Mateusz Gamrot 13-0 )
 
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