UFN 120 - Poirier vs Pettis - Virginia

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http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-Fight-Night-120-Poirier-vs-Pettis-62649

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Is there a reason to not bet Pettis -125?

Pettis is really hard to finish, only getting finished late in r3 by Holloway. Poirier relies heavily on finishing early and has shown that he doesn't absorb damage that well. Early r1 KO's from Conor + Michael Johnson, Jim Miller fucked up his legs.

Also Pettis may be in decline, but he did look great vs Miller (not that it's too hard) and is just a couple years removed from being -500 vs RDA. Seems like he's slightly better + more built to endure a slugfest and Poirier is likely to crumble first.
 
i'm on pettis i think dustin's chin is completely gone - result of fighting with no defence his entire career.
 
diego sanchez retirement party hosted by Matt Brown
 
I'm not sure on Diamond and Pettis. Yes Dustin chin is getting cracked but he still shows heart to at least try to come back. When Pettis faces adversity he seems to crumble a bit more.

I wouldn't be surprised if Dustin catches him at some point and Pettis just sort of shells up the rest of the fight
 
i'm so excited for a specific spot here. think it might be a 2nd straight week with a 4u play. *crosses fingers*
 
Liking Pettis and Guida. Will take Arlovski as a big dog.
 
I love this card for betting potential. Looking forward to seeing the lines
 
I have very high hopes for 3 or 4 of these fights.

Unrelated I like both Ansaroff and Angie Hill. That fight will be all kinds of fun.
 
How the hell do you cap Brown/Sanchez and Lauzon/Guida?

Brown is talking retirement, is 1-5 in last six. Sanchez is going back to 170, is skidding but not as bad as Brown who has been fighting better competition. Both old as fuck in fight years. Both have a variance of sides shown over the years in fights, which one is showing up?

Almost ditto for Clay and Joe who are both .500 in last six, Clay is going back up to LW, both uninsurable if they were cars, and both with a variance in performance over the years.

How does a capper approach these type of fights?

Edit: feeling the same about Nate v Cezar. spinning compass
 
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trident said:
How the hell do you cap Brown/Sanchez and Lauzon/Guida?

Brown is talking retirement, is 1-5 in last six. Sanchez is going back to 170, is skidding but not as bad as Brown who has been fighting better competition. Both old as fuck in fight years. Both have a variance of sides shown over the years in fights, which one is showing up?

Almost ditto for Clay and Joe who are both .500 in last six, Clay is going back up to LW, both uninsurable if they were cars, and both with a variance in performance over the years.

How does a capper approach these type of fights?
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I assume everyone will see great value on Brown and then cry robbery after judges fucks it up.

No idea about the other one, didn't Guida look pretty good last time out? Can't remember.
 
trident said:
How the hell do you cap Brown/Sanchez and Lauzon/Guida?

Brown is talking retirement, is 1-5 in last six. Sanchez is going back to 170, is skidding but not as bad as Brown who has been fighting better competition. Both old as fuck in fight years. Both have a variance of sides shown over the years in fights, which one is showing up?

Almost ditto for Clay and Joe who are both .500 in last six, Clay is going back up to LW, both uninsurable if they were cars, and both with a variance in performance over the years.

How does a capper approach these type of fights?
Click to expand...

With caution. SOmetimes it's just a matter of taking them as 50-50s and hitting the dogs. I kind of like Guida since I prefer his tenacity, and I think he's been doing better lately. He was up 2.5 rounds against Ortega before the knee, Koch's a decent scalp and Lauzon's always had issues with durable, tenacious pressure fighters.

Also pissed that UFC Sydney's got fuck-all depth, and this card's got 7 ranked fighters. Why not give us Assuncao-Lopez or Moraes-Dodson?
 
Took a beating last card, so I'm going to research this card deep.... I just not sure if it's the right one to bounce back..
 
Can anyone tell a noob when the lines usually come out for the next card?
 
trident said:
Can anyone tell a noob when the lines usually come out for the next card?
Click to expand...

It varies slightly, but I would guess main card by Tuesday at the latest and the undercard by Wednesday at the latest. But they might drop all at once.
 
After tape watching research, I am leaning with Poirier, at least for the first 2-3 rounds.

Pettis may have a better technical striking, switching stances, and combining with kicks and body shots, but Poirier is a bit more unpredictable due to the fact that he is a southpaw. Pettis is also a bit better with jiujitsu, but I don't see him submitting Poirier.

However, Both have two glaring weaknesses; Poirier has a weak chin, and Pettis has a damaged RIGHT EYE. Yeah, it is damaged, you can notice from the moment he is hit near that eye, it inmediately starts to sweall up and he starts blinking. I might be exaggerating, but this is what I saw.

I believe that if Poirier hits Pettis with a left hook, that eye would be messed up and Pettis won't be able to keep the same pace for the next rounds. And Pettis has hurt his eye in four out of his last five fights. So, my prediction is that if this fight goes late, he won't be able to win a decision.

So, It is Pettis by knock out or he losses (by decision or finish).

Prior to researching the fights, I was leaning Pettis by decision, due to the fact that he is more technical and has better cardio. But Poirier cardio isn't bad, he will hold his own in a 5 rounder. So you can see how all this changes with a little tape watching.
 
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I feel like I'm not going to have any strong leans this card. Prob gonna either sit out or make 1 bet and focus on basketball this week
 
trident said:
How the hell do you cap Brown/Sanchez and Lauzon/Guida?

Brown is talking retirement, is 1-5 in last six. Sanchez is going back to 170, is skidding but not as bad as Brown who has been fighting better competition. Both old as fuck in fight years. Both have a variance of sides shown over the years in fights, which one is showing up?

Almost ditto for Clay and Joe who are both .500 in last six, Clay is going back up to LW, both uninsurable if they were cars, and both with a variance in performance over the years.

How does a capper approach these type of fights?

Edit: feeling the same about Nate v Cezar. spinning compass
Click to expand...

I don't know how you can't favor Matt Brown here. Diego thrives on guys he can tire out or score the takedowns on. I think Brown is too big for Diego to have easy takedowns and he's not someone who just tires out. I think Brown will probably put Diego away standing.
 
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