UFN 120 - Poirier vs Pettis - Virginia

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SBJJ said:
Guida was actually getting the better of the standing against Koch.

Joe and Jim was like who could slow down more
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Okay...don't get me wrong here. There's no question Guida will have more in his tank than Joe. I totally agree. And Guida's striking isn't awful, it's just that same bouncing around, throw a few punches to set up a TD, repeat. He was doing well in the standup vs Koch, but did he land anything that even came close to hurting Koch? I think he has one KO/TKO win in 11 years in the UFC (20+ fights I think)? And it was in 2008.

From a betting standpoint, it's hard for me to justify a ML bet on Guida. +140 for his dec line right now, -120 ML. I think his odds of finishing Joe are <10%, I really do.

Also, if it's one round each after 2 and it looks like Guida's superior gas tank will likely be the difference, there's a chance his live line might not be much worse than -120 (depending on what the fight looks like).
 
Is anybody taking Diego Sanchez? Matt Browns chin could be touched up at this point.
 
mkess101 said:
There's almost no chance (outside some total fluke) that Clay finishes Joe either. I can't knock a play on Guida dec at +145 or whatever it is now, but if you are gonna bet Clay that's the way to go imo....
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You are right about this. I really liked what I saw out of Guida against Koch and Ortega and wanted to take him here, when his ML started dropping I got some in on him at -105 (1.95). Made the rest of my play right now on Dec at +170. I wouldn't be shocked if he caught Lauzon with a big strike as Joe does not have great striking defense and crazier things have happened (who thought Joe would 1 punch Diego), but I think the extra juice is worth it. Joes BJJ should protect him from a Guida follow up finish if the unthinkable happens and he gets dropped
 
thesharktank said:
Is anybody taking Diego Sanchez? Matt Browns chin could be touched up at this point.
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Brown's chin is definitely touched up, but Diego couldn't even finish Gomi, so not real worried about him cracking brown. Could happen, but the majority of the time if Diego wins its because he gets his wrestling going.

Diego's last KO/TKO was against Luigi Floravanti in the TUF finale in 2008..
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
This is from MMA Oddsbreaker

Written by Gabe Killian

Women’s Strawweight bout: Tatiana Suarez (-280) vs. Viviane Pereira (+255)

Gabe's Thoughts: I think Suarez holds great value at her current offering price of -280, as I think she should be somewhere between a -1400 betting favorite in this women’s 115-pound contest. That is keeping in mind the fact that she is coming off an injury layoff. Were it not for her injury and extended layoff, I would have put her at a solid -2000. She is at a striking disadvantage in this bout, but I don’t expect that to matter one bit. I believe she will find success in taking this fight to the mat, where I see her dominating the Brazilian. I favor a submission finish for Suarez, but if she fails to secure it, I think we will see three 10-8 rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards. I see this as being her fight to lose, so I believe Suarez will come out on top with an impressive victory in Virginia; ultimately remaining undefeated, while giving Pereira her first taste of professional mixed martial arts defeat.

Gabe's Call: Suarez by Submission (neck crank, 3:23 round 1)
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High level analysis from, as Jon Anik said on his podcast, one of the sharpest minds in MMA betting. Respect.
 
betrayedlurker said:
High level analysis from, as Jon Anik said on his podcast, one of the sharpest minds in MMA betting. Respect.
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Gabe has some elite plays for this event and his four suggested prop plays were ones I hit previously (Guida Dec, Moraes Dec, Fortuna ITD, and Brown KO). Sounds like me and Gabe are going to make some bread tonight while Zee's takes an L.
 
Dodson NSC honestly maybe the best bet on the card. Yeah, it probably is a push, but the risk is just sooooo low.

IF there is a finish, these odds are just WAY off on who's more likely to get it. Dodson never been finished (or even close that I can remember--maybe MM had him in a little trouble once in 50 minutes of fighting). Dodson obviously has faced better competition by far too. Has been in with the best there is, and looked better than anyone else has against him. I thought Dodson beat Lineker too. Lineker a more dangerous finisher by far than anyone Moraes has ever fought.

I like Moraes, I think he's a top 10 talent. But this line makes no sense. Moraes isn't gonna finish Dodson outside a giant fluke.
 
mkess101 said:
Dodson NSC honestly maybe the best bet on the card. Yeah, it probably is a push, but the risk is just sooooo low.

IF there is a finish, these odds are just WAY off on who's more likely to get it. Dodson never been finished (or even close that I can remember--maybe MM had him in a little trouble once in 50 minutes of fighting). Dodson obviously has faced better competition by far too. Has been in with the best there is, and looked better than anyone else has against him. I thought Dodson beat Lineker too. Lineker a more dangerous finisher by far than anyone Moraes has ever fought.

I like Moraes, I think he's a top 10 talent. But this line makes no sense. Moraes isn't gonna finish Dodson outside a giant fluke.
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you can say the same for moraes decision +190 when he was a -110 ml
 
mkess101 said:
Dodson NSC honestly maybe the best bet on the card. Yeah, it probably is a push, but the risk is just sooooo low.

IF there is a finish, these odds are just WAY off on who's more likely to get it. Dodson never been finished (or even close that I can remember--maybe MM had him in a little trouble once in 50 minutes of fighting). Dodson obviously has faced better competition by far too. Has been in with the best there is, and looked better than anyone else has against him. I thought Dodson beat Lineker too. Lineker a more dangerous finisher by far than anyone Moraes has ever fought.

I like Moraes, I think he's a top 10 talent. But this line makes no sense. Moraes isn't gonna finish Dodson outside a giant fluke.
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idk about best bet on the card, but yea, i have a couple hundy on it (and 4+ on moraes straight, haha)

i wish i had more on moraes dec and less on his ML, but oh well
 
quincy k said:
you can say the same for moraes decision +190 when he was a -110 ml
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Agree. That spread makes absolutely zero sense given how low the % is that he finishes Dodson.
 
EzFlyer said:
idk about best bet on the card, but yea, i have a couple hundy on it (and 4+ on moraes straight, haha)

i wish i had more on moraes dec and less on his ML, but oh well
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Not worried about the speed difference? Dodson makes everyone look slow (other than MM).

That said, Moraes has proven to more consistently be active and Dodson looks to counter too often in some of his fights.

I'm excited about this fight, should be really interesting.
 
mkess101 said:
Agree. That spread makes absolutely zero sense given how low the % is that he finishes Dodson.
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i argued with some people here a few days ago regarding the decsion line where they apparantly saw little value.

it was so stupid, its like they wanted to argue just to argue.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Clay GOATda best bet as long as he stays around evens. Just pseudo hedge w Lauzon round 1
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Aren't you worried about Guida getting caught in a submission? His sub defense is far from good
 
Joseph Budden said:
Wouldn’t be surprised by late finish if Lauzon is gassed but yeah that’s only way he can
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+170 is a great line for Clay dec. I like Joe actually, but if I could get +170 I'd bet that Clay dec line for sure.

7 years since Guida finished anyone. SEVEN. YEARS.
 
DefinitelyNOT strong leans but no one's really talking about Collier / Stewart to start the night. I think both lines are definitely skewed . But not going big on either.
 
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