Well, got starched on the final card of 2017, which brought to close a very lackluster year for me. All told down a negligible amount (about 11u total) but given the time I put in (esp the first half of last year) it was pretty disappointing. First losing MMA year for me since 2013. Cyborg not finishing Holly literally was the difference between being profitable in 2017 and being in the red for me LOL (I did minimize the damage with some live bets of goes distance, but I was so big on Cyborg itd pre fight that I only partially was able to hedge out). The last fight of the year decided it. Reality is I just have so much less time right now for studying and capping, I can't even say I'm surprised my outcomes lately have been sub par.
Keeping it small starting 2018, and honestly will probably keep it small live betting too (barring some sort of crazy value that pops up). Here's some (limited) thoughts for tonight:
Choi/Stephens
Both guys with great chins obviously. Both good counter punchers, and wouldn't be a shock at all if this one never hits the mat. I like Superboy as he's less shopworn. Stephens most likely will look to damage Choi's legs with those hard leg kicks like he did to Gilbert, but Choi is much faster with his overhand counter than Gil was, and can make Stephens pay for throwing too many leg kicks. Given the durability of both guys, I honestly have no idea whether this hits the cards or not. And Choi -5.5 just doesn't add enough value from his ML. -165 to -130 isn't enough for me to budge off just playing Choi straight. Stephens is absolutely good enough to keep it very competitive. But Choi -165 is the play imo.
PVC/JRC
Would have bet JRC here at + odds, but it's a pretty even fight imo. WMMA at this level almost impossible to predict, and I'm still stinging from what I thought was the "sure" thing in WMMA (Cyborg finishes people). This one is gonna go to the cards, but -270, meh. Might throw that in a couple very small parlays, but otherwise, pass and wait for LB.
Usman/Meek
I'm an Usman Kool-aid drinker, plain and simple. But -660? No. -3.5 at -325? Now THAT I can get behind. It's very hard for me to envision Usman winning this fight but losing a round (or even coming close to losing one). Meek's chance is to catch Kamaru and finish him, and I think that's it. Usman's grappling obviously isn't in question, but his hands have started to catch up. I think he dominates Meek here. Not sure about a finish, but I think this will be a one-sided fight.
Elkins/MJ
Should be a big handspeed advantage for MJ obviously. He made weight, I wonder just how draining it was. Elkins very comfortable playing the grinder role. MJ's counter-wrestling a bit underrated though, and assuming he rehydrates well he should be bigger for sure. I read some others saying they like MJ and then just live bet Elkins after rd 1 for a little as a hedge. I kinda like that strategy.
Honestly, I haven't had time to put in anything nearing enough work on the undercard, so no point in giving anything resembling detailed thoughts. I like Krause/White goes distance at -155 a little. Frevola sub +500 for a tiny flier. Aldana ML and goes distance, Kang itd, Eye ML, Taylor dec, Santiago/Brunell DNGD. All of those super small bets or just added in RR's for fun. I'm not gonna get burned badly on fighters where I watched one or two fights at most to cap them.
Hope 2018 is a great year for everyone, BOL!
