Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.
Bet the house on
Dogs will get destroyed on this card
Cowboy looks like a solid choice, going back to 155 he won't be undersized, solid TDD recently against Leon Edwards. Perry got him down nicely though although that fight once again showed Cerrone's guard and BJJ is majorly underrated. Still not convinced by Hernandez at all, OAM looked plain bad and Dariush got caught early. Cerrone as an underdog again is a decent bet he can more than compete grappling, won't slow down and is lethal everywhere.
Teixeira too seems good as a solid underdog, don't get the Cutelaba hype at all, wouldn't surprise me if Teixeira just repeats the Jarred Cannonier gameplan and just cruises to a decision off his wrestling. Glovers older but his last loss was a completely different stylistic match up to this one and it's not like he has a bad chin. Making it to the 5th like he did with Gus and getting finished by Rumble doesn't make him an easy match up. Cutelaba's best win is Antigulov and his 2 minute gas tank while Teixeira has only lost to top 10 guys his whole UFC career.
Belal Muhammed could be good too, Neal has shown solid striking but his cardio, grappling etc. are all unknowns vs a proven guy like Belal. Camacho was a good win but was just asking to get hit all night. Think Belal keeps the striking competitive and lands takedowns on his way to a decision.
Got a Unit on Dillashaw and PVZ at +159. Will probably add more later to them individually. Don't trust PVZ TDD but she's tough as hell and Ostovich sub defence is complete trash even if she hits a takedown. Dillashaw could be P4P no.1 imo, only guy to get him down was Cruz and he popped straight back up, his striking and power is far ahead of Cejudo and I'd expect his BJJ is way ahead too. Still not convinced Cejudo even beat DJ when all he could do is lay on him to 'win' rounds. Wouldn't even be surprised if TJ flips the script and lands takedowns off his striking then uses BJJ to dominate rounds.
Going to bet the house on PVZ + Dillashaw
Ostovich got beat so bad in her last fight the cops got called
I laughed an unhealthy amount at that
no tape I think Benavides + gillespie + neal parlay is money
Texeira and cerrone at dog odds are playable, but it has to be a good price
Benavides, Gillespie, Muhammad, Hernandez, Van Zant and dilashaw are all the ones that catch my eye so far
Dogs I like at first glance are Texeira and Muhammad. Favs would just be Dillashaw, Gillespie, Benavidez, Hernandez and Menifield right now, maybe Vanzant. No bets though and I could change my opinion after I look into ti more
Funny how people are so confident in Joe B as a big favorite against Ortiz. Everyone has writing him off last time against Perez, Ortiz is better than Perez IMO. Pass for me but I think value is on Ortiz, he's improved a lot since the first time they fought
Ortiz'd be my lean here and I've bet on him in his last 2 wins, but I think his sub/positional grappling defense gets him into deep shit again. Probably shouldn't be this wide, though.
Ortiz is one of my favorite picks as he's always a dog against hyped but relatively unproven flyweights, but theres a huge difference between Joe B and rank 3-15 flyweights imo.
Yeah Ortiz seems to get underestimated a lot, he's won as an underdog in his last two fights, I had him vs Pantoja. Ortiz is younger and still improving, I don't see Joe B outstriking him so easy this time.
People were acting like Joe B at fallen off a cliff prior to the Perez fight, crazy he was an underdog in that spot. I think Joe B will probably win this fight, he's TDD and scrambling is too good for Ortiz to take him down and on the feet I favor Joe B. Agree that its a closer fight than odds suggest.
Not really liking any dogs for this card, I think a lot of favorites will win
So far I'm on
PVZ -Good fight for PVZ to get back on track. She's a level above Ostavich, more athletic, more skilled. Don't see her losing
Lipski - this girl is the real deal, I expect big things from her. She's too fast for Calderwood, I see Calderwood getting busted up. If you haven't already, check out Lipski's highlights, destroying mediocre competition in KSW
Cutelaba - Glover is on the way out, he's old and slow, Cutelaba is the future, I think he stuffs Glover's TDD's and breaks him on the feet. Cutelaba is a savage.
Also think Randy Brown will win easy but he's not cheap.
Bermudez vs Edwards is very interesting, will Bermudez finally get a win, I wanna say yes.
Parlaying is for mugs, but I kind of want to do Brown/Lineker for +100ish.
Bermudez should be Edwards... But he should have beat that last dude, too.
Brown let me down last time, ridiculous way to get finished, I still think he's better than Niko Price. Against Belal, Rencountre went 16/123 on significant strikes, that is crazy bad. I just think Brown puts on a striking clinic, he's a much better athlete too, not too worried if it hits the mat. Brown also the hometown guy.
Te Edwards has achieved nothing in his career, coming off a humbling KO defeat, I'm not sure he's ready for the UFC. Very hard to trust Bermudez, his chin is forever suspect and losing 3 close fights in a row, fights he could of won and arguably should of won. There probably is value on Bermudez, if a couple of those splits went the other way you'd be looking at a very different line here.
@ first glance:
TJ is fighting for the 1st time @125 in his MMA career, who knows how hard will the cut be and what effect might have on him and the fight itself. I am not willing to see with my money. I know on paper he is better virtually everywhere than Cejudo, but the adult in me says to avoid this fight
I didn't watch a minute of tape of that Ostovich girl, but she is clearly the better looking of them two, so she must be a lot worse
About the girl that I know - PVZ - I question her motivation, she is not with Alpha Male for quite some time now, a bad camp but at least a lot of good training partners near her size and structure to her training, now her boyfriend trains her in a garage - not good. Have to look what the other girl can do.
Glover v Ion. I don't know what to think.... Glover is an underdog and it just doesn't seem right. I know he is supposed to lose, he's been through wars and he is old, but something seems fishy to me. How is Ion a favourite here? He was taken down almost at will by Antigulov and Antigulov is a step below as an athlete to Glover and many steps below him in the grappling. And he, like DC said, was so intent on wrestling Ion, that he was not noticing when he was hurting Ion with his punches. So Ion is not invulnerable to punches and even more to being taken down. I honestly think that Ion's best win in the octagon is Jonathan Wilson and he is nothing special, guys. He is an athletic guy who have one dangerous punch and he can't fight backing up at all and have zero wrestling or grappling and have cardio for round and a half. I think bookie is making a mistake here. But we'll see. It's not like I am right every time.
Hernandez I think will win if he read the book on Cerrone. Alex is kinda undersized for the division, but compensate with athleticism and well roundedness - if that is a word? I like Cowboy, but we know the movie - if you get in his face you have more than good chances to beat him. If you let him take you down, or you take him down - and you are kinda clueless on the ground - you are getting choked or your arm removed from your shoulder. Simple. Don't get taken down, pressure him and knock him out inside the 1st. My worry is Hernandez is a little sloppy standing up - everybody that knocked Cowboy out was a very good, measured striker that could pour pinpoint offence and be relatively safe while doing it, so I'll just sit and watch this fight. An unanswered question is what the weighcut back to 155 gonna look like on old Cowboy? We'll see.
I liked all that I saw from that guy Geoff Neal in his debut!!! He was looking like a fighting game character there with Camacho! Amazing fighter. But his ground game maybe liability? Didn't watched his fights outside UFC. I know he lost to Holland. Not a good look. Have to see what Belal has to offer in this fught. But favouring Neal just on a first glance.
Have to agree with Dianabol. People sleeping on Ortiz once again. I know Joe B got an impressive win v Perez, but this doesn't change the fact that he is fading physically and fading @ 125 means death. I don't care how good you are, if you slow down a little, if you are not as strong as before, you are going to lose to evey decent opponent. Even the once you've beat before. Ortiz is more than decent in my book. Have to rewatch some stuff from him to know what I have for sure, tho. But I have hard time seeing him turtling like Perez on the ground taking unanswered shots to the head... Really hard time seeing this happen.
And in the end I don't know about Sandhagen's chances against Lineker, think he is not good enough athlete for him and I am curious about that Gillespie v Medeiros fight. Medeiros going back to 155 and he is kinda hard to take down, his TDD is something like 80%. His stand up is bad, but slowly developing. It was a huge mistake for him to accept this Cerrone fight like not even a full 3 months after a war between him and A.Oliveira. A War with capital W. I honestly can't write him off in this fight. People thoght he will lose for sure to brazilian Cowboy and he won. If he had skills big as his heart he would be the next Jon Jones. Yancy will put up a fight, won't go down easily I think. I favour Gillespie, but who knows what will happen. I'm rooting for Yancy, I like him and Max, hawaiian warriors!
You are spreading a bit of misinformation my man. PVZ doesn't just train out of a garage with her BF, since leaving TAM she's been at Gracie Barra Portland which is the same gym Chael Sonnen and Ricky Simon train out of. Fabiano Scherner is PVZ's head coach. Do you know where Ostavich trains? with her dad and brother in some Jesus saves gym in Hawaii.
I think your read on Cutelaba is a little off, wrestling is his base, he's got good TDD and decent TD's himself. He's a young improving guy and I believe he's on PEDs. The guy will fight to the death for your money. I think this guy looks better and better, his last fight was impressive. Antigulov is a good grappler and he couldn't hold down Cutelaba and got rekt in the clinch. Glover is on his way out, he's so slow now, even against Cirkunov (the wimp) he was getting lit up before getting the TD. Taken a lot of damage and it's all downhill from here. The young eat the old.
Also disagree with you saying Hernandez is undersized. He may not be one of the taller LW's but he's jacked, no doubt he cuts a lot to make 155. Hernandez is another guy I'm very suspicious of being on PED's, very impressive physique, check out that HGH gut. I am a big beliver in Hernandez though, he's a great athlete with a well rounded, dangerous skillset. I think he's going to have a lot of success in the UFC, even bet him vs OAM. I think this is a good spot to fade Cerrone, this kid is going to run him over.
The Ortiz line is the best line that I see so far. I also like Neal and Edwards. I honestly think Bermudez is done.
Is Edwards the dude, though? I made a bunch on him in TNC and like 10u on Madge over him. Just haven't really seen the breadth of game to nkow if he's UFC level quite yet.
Will agree, Dianabol, about your remarks for PVZ fight, but I think in fact you are off on your Cutelaba read, with all my hespect of course.
Cutelaba is a sambo guy with a greco wrestling. We saw same exact type get rekt in Pavlovich v Reem. Pavlovich was turtle on the ground, did next to nothing, stood there and got finished. Cutelaba is not a grappler, not a good one at least. Some heavy guy with cardio on top of him who can keep mount, and I am very curious to see him getting off the ground. Antigulov was flabby, out of shape, he exhaused himself trying his hardest to keep Cutelaba down and he didn't even had to do that at all costs, he was getting in good shots on the feet.
Circunov may give up in the first sign of danger, but he is a giant LHW with speed and hard punches. Cutelaba is not that big. He has muscles, but he is not the biggest lightheavy. Yeah, the young eat the old, but you still have to be good young fighter. Anderson beat him, but I think Anderson is a lot better fighter than Cutelaba.
You are mixing up muscle bound with big frame. Hernandez's frame is on the smaller side of 155. He is athletic guy, but not the biggest LW. You saw him next to real big LW in OAM? Was he or not smaller than OAM? He was. Smaller than Mercier, smaller than Dariush. He is a bit small, not too undersized, I didn't say that, I said he is "kinda undersized". And he did fought @ 145 in the past. I think Cerrone has to cut both his legs to get that low. Hernandez didn't looked too sucked in at weigh ins TBH. Guy is fine, he pushes a hell of a tempo for 3 rounds, doubt he'll be able to do that well if he has to cut 25lbs+
He may run him over or he may not. You can't be too sure and he is the favourtite. Fading Cerrone on a minus odds is generally a bad idea. Masvidal and Till beat him easy and they were I think both underdogs. The two other times you could successfully fade him was v Lawler and v Edwards, he fought very well there and the fights were close so your fade on Cerrone on a minus odds would've been a big sweat. If you give me big plus odds I'll fade him v Alex, but on a fav - no, thank you.
I want to just put my big long explanation about what I see on a first look to stay here, and will gradually answer and go back and forth with different people, we may find a good spots on that card, I kinda hate myself that I overlooked Montel's fight on the previous card, he won so effortlessly the price on him was a steal in hindsight.. So Dianabol, if you answer me, I'm not gonna mess you for long.. want to see different people's opinion on these fights, no offence
This is a great card for betting
Hernandez to win inside distance will be tasty, as will Cejudo's moneyline as the line continues to swing in TJ's favor. He will likely be around +210 by fight night
TJ would thrash Henry at 135 but I think he is underestimating just how strenuous the weight cut will be. Plus Cejudo continues to improve a fair bit between every fight
Separate names with a comma.