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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Honestly, I think Bermudez has lost confidence. I think that's a huge issue for him at this point given his style. Now he's going up a weight class (probably to avoid being cut) and facing a better wrestler than himself. On top of that, the guy has KO power. It just seems like a bad matchup to me.
     
  2. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    I learned my lesson, never bet against Ortiz.
    1.jpg
     
  3. 2bet Green Belt

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    Sorry for being offtopic, but I am sure you guys can help me out fast... which other betting site does have a Cash-out option (like bet365)?

    I am currently just using bet365 and Pinnacle, and I am thinking about registering at another site.
    I am from Europe so there is not lack of options for me, and I do like that Cash-out option a loooot
     
  4. northsofia Blue Belt

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    Betfair Exchange have something like the cash out option of bet365, but there has to be someone to buy your bet.
     
  5. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    Having looked at these fight just a bit more I like Dillashaw, Gillespie and Hernandez a lot. Already bet 3u on Hernandez at -175, I expect Dillashaw to give me <-200 then I'm prob going in 5u. Gillespie I expect his price to get worse, I dont have any interest paying -450 as it stands so I'll prob be looking for a prop for that fight.

    I like Benavidez, Menifield and Brown to a lesser extent than the previous 3. I need better prices on all of them but will prob only get it on Brown, cant imagine anyone being excited to bet on Ortiz, Moreia or Recountre but I can see folks wanting to bet Benavidez and Menifield. I can see folks fading Brown or just not being excited to bet him though.

    Not sure how I feel about Lipski. Saw her getting taken down and dominated on the ground in her 5th fight, Belbita reversed her pretty easily on the ground and Calderwood likes to mix in takedowns. Expect Lipski to have a huge edge standing though, she obv has power and I can see openings in Calderwoods defense where Lipski can take advantage.

    Dogs I have my eye on are Edwards, Muhammad, Texeira, Sandhagen and Crowder. Havent committed to any yet though.
     
  6. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    HAHAHA THANK GOD FOR YOUR FADE MATERIAL
     
  7. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Yeah I wouldn't bet against Ortiz here but I wouldn't bet on him either. I expect a competitive fight with Joe B getting his hand raised.
     
  8. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Will wait for weigh ins before I make a pick for TJ vs Cejudo

    Gillespie should take care of business fairly easily but still too pricey for me.

    I also like Hernandez, expect nothing but good things, I wanna bet him but I'm gonna need some line movement, kinda missed my shot.

    I agree Lipski should have a significant advantage standing, her speed, KO power and shot selection is impressive, Jo Jo doesn't make herself hard to hit. She got reversed from mount vs Belbita because I think she was trying to set up a mounted triangle, didn't get it but got the armbar 10 seconds after she got reversed. Lipski is a BJJ purple belt, I think she's just as good if not better than Calderwood on the ground. This girl could be a star, she's young, beautiful, athletic, exciting fighter, speaks English. If UFC market her right and she fights to her potential, expect a lot of success for her.
     
  9. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    For now Im on
    Edwards ML + 108
    Belal 1u at +124
    Sandhagen 1u at +196

    I share @Oblivian thought on Bermudez.
    Muhammad is a guy that fights for your money. He is the type of guy I would not play as a big favorite and I would fade when he fights a top guy.. this fight is neither of those and I like him as a dog.

    Sandhagen has value.. former FW, long, decent fighter. I have been waiting for the opportunity to fade Lineker. The guy should be a FLW but sucks at cutting weight.
    I feel like he is overrated because of his fan friendly style and the fact that he somehow (and this is just a personal opinion) overachieved a bit at BW by having good matchups. This might be another one but Im willing to eat a crow for +200 odds. Maybe I should have waited Cory decision line since Lineker is super though to finish.


    Just an observation.. I see a lot of you guys are doing a lot of parlays. In my experience that is not a good strategy. You might get pumped because you hit a big one (happened to me) but then they start draining money from your BR. IDK.. do whatever you want but those are my 2 cents.
     
  10. matthew55 Blue Belt

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    surprised at all the PVZ love, I think Ostovich wins this one easily but I guess I oughtta watch some more tape
     
  11. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Parlay is looking like
    Greg hardy (I’m a big fan of his prior work)
    Gillespie
    Van Zant
    Dilashaw

    Will probably bet individually on Hernandez , I’m a fanboy of his but I’d like to see how he can handle a fight where he should probably predominantly strike a competent opponent,

    I like Belal Muhammad as well as a slight dog; an active aggressive striker who will work all 3 rounds

    Also Randy brown, this is more a fade on chance Rencounter, looked horrid in his last fight, don’t see a path to victory
     
  12. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    How do you figure Ostovich wins this fight?
     
  13. matthew55 Blue Belt

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    probably submission
     
  14. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    While true, I think relying on any woman currently in wmma to get a submission is likely a losing proposition.
    Banking on one of the girls to win by striking volume / aggression ( Van Zant in this case)
    will serve you well 90% of the time
     
  15. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    PVZ isn't easy to submit at all it took Namajunas 5 rounds who is way better several levels above Ostovich and in her last fight PVZ was stuck in a triangle with a broken arm and never even looked close to quitting. Ostovich has literally been submitted as many times as she's won by submission and against far weaker competition. To win Ostovich needs to put PVZ on her back for 3 rounds avoiding getting subbed (which she is terrible at) and if PVZ gets on top or keeps it on the feet then she's is going to get beaten badly, she's literally 4 and 4 and got finished in every loss.
     
  16. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    If he strike with Geoff for any extended period he is getting KTFO. It's imperative to wrestle here.

    Wouldn't just fade Lineker, unless I got more than a decent athlete against him (and a technician). If you see the guys that he struggled the most it was the super fast Dodson, fast, technical and the much better fighter champ Dillashaw, McCall and Bagautinov because of the wrestling. You have to be a physical force and to be able to maintan that force for the whole 3rds to match him. Guy doesn't get tired doesn't get stunned. He is a terminator. Saying all this, I did not watch Cory, so I reserve the right to change my mind :)

    Watched the 1st fight between Ortiz and Joe B. I liked what I saw. Ortiz was very competitive through the whole fight. Had his moments. Joe was not able to wresle him at will and had to mainly outstrike him. I don't see him doing the same with him gassing out like in the Pettis fight. And he was visibly tired even in that 1st Ortiz fight in the 3rd. He is making too much erratic movements and just dynamic shit that it not possible to maintain past the 1st. Ortiz's striking game is matured, can't say the same for Joe. Benavidez will lose this fight and then retire, just like his teammate Chad did after lost to The Hulk.

    To me Ortiz is the best underdog to play on the card
    . It's a flyweight fight, so no unexpected out from the blue KO is gonna happen and mess with my calculations. I think just the younger eats the old in this case here. I really think Ortiz will make Benavidez look like shit. Just like in Pettis fight, but worse.

    And second best underdog is Glover. He is better everywhere IMO. Ion is not dynamic with his footwork or his range punches. He is good at like only @ close range, but in that same range Glover can and will wrestle him. And Glover still can punch hard even at his old age and wars behind him.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  17. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    Should clarify he can take points in the stand up, with pressure he can negate Geoff to a degree, also since he isn’t fighting during Ramadan I’d expect him to look better now, he’s a live dog is all I think for now..
     
  18. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I like Muhammad here. Dude's never going to be champ, but he's well-rounded, comes in with good gameplans and fights for your money. Not totally sold on Neal from the Camacho fight, as Camacho clearly had no idea how to close the distance on him and only really wrestles from the clinch.
     
  19. matthew55 Blue Belt

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    I'm not "relying" on it lol, you asked me how I figure she wins and that's how I see it happening but I think she can get the win on the feet or on the ground, but we'll see.
     
  20. Larthus Orange Belt

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    Boys I’m about to go full on degenerate on that Gregor Gillespie line if it hovers -200

    Wishful thinking probably
     

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