Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.
Huh. No real significant pants height advantage for anyone.
After analyzing a couple of silly fights on the card, it's now time to discuss a serious one, Geoff Neal vs. Belal Muhammad.
In one corner we have the ideal WME-era fighter in Neal; a good striker who comes forward, takes chances, and has good enough wrestling to keep the fight standing. On the other hand we have the type of fighter WME hates in Muhammad; a tactical grinder who wins decisions.
At first glance, Muhammad seems like a good play. A tough fighter who uses wrestling against a somewhat unproven striker in Neal at +160 or so!
And yet, the more closely we examine the fight, the more we realize he is a little bit of fool's gold. Belal is an overachiever; given his set of skills and flaws, there is absolutely no reason he should have the record he has. He is able to maximize his abilities and fight intelligently to exploit his opponent's weaknesses. While I fought he lost, Belal had absolutely no business having a close fight against Tim Means, and yet, that's precisely what happened.
At the same time, looking at his last 4 fights and victories, and scrutinizing how we won, we walk away with several conclusions. First is that Belal, while he has added to his striking in the form of adding a competent jab by the Mein fight, and some lateral movement as well as a 2-3 in the Means fight, is still a very average striker at best. In fact, while he has improved through adding new skills, he hasn't fixed his previous flaws, like his technically flawed hooks or straight right.
And who does Belal Muhammad have trouble with? Better strikers. Vicente Luque brutally separated him from consciousness back in 2016. Has Belal improved? Sure. Would someone like Luque still beat him nowadays, if not as quickly or one-sidedly? Probably. Neal isn't as good of a striker as Luque in my opinion, but he's close.
And let's not forget that Tim Means, who is a clearly inferior striker to Neal, arguably did beat Muhammad.
The fact that Neal is a smart fighter himself, and adjusts his fighting style based on whether he has the reach advantage or disadvantage (notice how expertly he used range against Camacho, keeping him at the end of his punches) is a bad portent for Belal.
But what about takedowns, you might say? Here's the thing; Belal's takedowns aren't good at all. They're painfully slow, straightforward shots that succeed based on a few factors;
1. Belal wisely waiting until later in the fight, when his cardio becomes a factor, and the opponent is conditioned to think only of striking, to unleash them.
2. Belal has good physical and presumably grip strength.
3. Belal is persistent in his attempts.
That's not going to work so well against Neal, who is a decent wrestler in his own right, and against whom "later in the fight" might not occur, as Neal might just knock him out early. Neal does have some cardio issues, slowing down in the 3rd round against Holland.
Trouble is that Neal might only need 2 rounds to beat Belal or, if he wins the first 2 rounds, he can afford to lose the third.
So with that in mind, I felt comfortable betting 3u on Neal at -170.
HOWEVER, Belal by decision at +385 is kind of ridiculous. For all I wrote, he is canny enough, and improving enough that his chances of winning by decision are well above 20% or so. So I also bought a bit of insurance, putting 0.8u on Belal by decision at +385.
Here is another good breakdown I would recommend folks to read;
This may be my final post on Sherdog. Depending on how my bets fare come Saturday and if I don't come through (albeit I likely will) I want to thank everyone from the bottom of my heart because without the Sherdog betting community I'd be a deadbeat, broke, raging alcoholic.
Am living proof that whatever you put your mind to that dreams can become reality. Never in my wildest dreams did I think I could profit much less make a living by betting. While value betting is my livelyhoood, I've been hampered by my personal demons i.e politics, relationships, substance abuse. It's something I won't go into more detail but, suffice to say the OG sherodoggers know the demons that have been haunting me.
For this challenge which will ultimately decide my fate here on Sherdog, I have chosen to cap tomorrow's entire card from top to bottom. I have strategically placed bets within a reasonable odds range(Cannot choose odds less than -150/1.67) or I could just take all faves and cinch this challenge. No excuses, only one with the testicular fortitude to put my Sherdog account on the line like it's nothing!
In my heart of hearts, I still believe I'm the greatest handicapper that Sherdog has ever seen. Am I pretentious? You're damned right I am and for good reason! I've offered a "beat the Barry" challenge which went uncontested. My record speaks for itself as I have documented a butt load of free picks which are still searchable within the Sherdog database.
Let me be clear: I have stipulated that if I don't reach a positive net outcome from tomorrow's bets (that I have painstakingly handicapped for ya'll), it's adios amigos. I fully encourage and demand that the administrator go ham and deactivate the account of Barrygood1. I'm not playin'. I put my money where my mouth is. Anyone who's been in the gambling world knows that sometimes "you gotta go big or go home".
While there's an extremely high percent that this will be all for naught, however, if this indeed my final post then I want to thank all my Barry bros for their support. The ride has been wicked gnarly. The haters have tested my patience. Psalm 23:4
Barry's Picks: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...-dillashaw-bets.3893165/page-2#post-148434115
As a true OG of this forum I want to say gosh darn I freaking love this betting community and what I've done to make it what it is today.
Wish you all the best Barry, the fact that most of your picks are starkly different to mine should stand you in good stead.
Nothing left to do but let the MMA gods do their thing.
Hope to see you on the other side.
Good write up, Polar. One of the most complete breakdowns of this fight
I chose that to quote because I think it's very important for us bettors. What I learn through the years of watching MMA is that fighters doesn't change fundamentally. They slowly evolve. And the quote from PolarBear is the rule that their evolving follows. They add new skills on top of each other. Like putting some furniture on top of a stain on the rug, but not cleaning the stain, just covering it with something, but the stain is there still. Almost never they fix their biggest and oldest flaws in their style, they make them less apparent by covering them up with new tricks, if you will. But if you dig enough you'll find they didn't change at all at a core level.
Skybet Has Ortiz/Benavidez neither fighter to land takedown @ 20/1.
Could see an early shock KO in that one.
£15 for £315
Also took Crowder RD1 KO/TKO for 33/1
£20 returns £680.
Very generous odds for someone who has knockouts on their record fighting an unproven prospect who fights with a lot of emotion.
Also on Crowder SUB @ 18/1
I think there's value on Gillespie Dec, took some at +275, I don't think there is much certainty at all in Gillespie finishing a guy like Yancy. Aside from an arm triangle Gillespie doesn't have a diverse sub threat and apart from getting guillotined by Jim Miller 5 years ago Yancy's sub defence has looked good and even then he fought until he blacked out. Also, while Gillespie has decent boxing, standing and banging with Yancy seems like something he'll want to avoid so I think it's pretty likely to go to a decision with Gillespie just hitting takedowns and grinding him down enough to win a one sided decision.
Barry don’t go!!!
Neal NSC is very playable at -2xx as well, only worry is a late rd3 back take if Neal does significantly slow.
Broke my action down into:
Neal -150 $750
Neal NSC -220 $500
Neal/Muhammad U2.5 +130 $100
I threw him into a parlay. Yancy is fun to watch but gillespie is probably the most underrated fighter in the entire ufc right now. His grappling and pace are on another level
You will see tonight why. gregors wrestling skills are elite and as well balanced as yancy is those takedowns will not stop coming
Curious to what you guys think about texeira vs roberson. I was really impressed by roberson in his last fight and i think he has a really good chance to take out texeira. Texeiras striking seems to have gotten worse and worse i mean when he fought jared cannonier he was having trouble on the feet and had to resort to takedowns with minimal activity to win that fight and i wasnt all that impressed. But robersons striking skills look very impressive and ahh fuck it im throwing 20 on karl
PVZ + Lips + TJ
belal +3.5 pts at -125. you're insane if you aren't betting this.
PVZ over Ostovich at -150 is a steal.
hardy completely unproven. crowder +400 is a must
cerrone and calderwood +3.5 at even have solid value
bermudez +3.5 -150 has to be the play
took menifield -3.5 at -200. moderate on tex at even.
small on stewart -160
shots in the dark +3.5 +250 on medeiros and batista
Lol I don’t agree with your hyperbole
Taking a chance on recountre dec +300
Probably end up playing Neal rd 1 +325. Already on his itd line
Want to play his ml
honestly i'm taking belal straight over neal. but +3.5 at -125 is simply insane. the odds of belal winning at least one round here has got to be in the ~70% range. Hell, if you think the odds belal wins at least one round is 60%, then that's a great play.
Belals most likely path is dec
Neal’s is the ko
I don’t think Neal wins on points
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