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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I don't think Yancy's that great but he does most things fundamentally well even while rocked badly. Watching his fight with Trinaldo he took a crazy amount of punishment yet continuously worked his way back to his feet or reversed the position. Gillespie is great but I really don't see why he should be that big of a favourite vs someone as tough and dangerous as Yancy that also has all the skill to keep it competitive plus he should be considerably bigger. When was the last time we even saw someone takedown and control Yancy easily on the ground? I need to do more tape but not seeing why he's such a big underdog at all.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  2. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    He was good but equally OAM looked awful, he had no sense of urgency, in the second he was winning after actually fighting for top control then pulled guard and gave up that round and for the rest of the fight just didn't seem to care. A guy like Cerrone is a better fighter pretty much everywhere than OAM, won't slow down and will match whatever pace Hernandez comes out with. Hernandez is good but the line looks like the result of people still underestimating Cerrone over his recent win loss and overestimating Hernandez as a dominant young prospect.
     
  3. EndlessCritic Steel Belt

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    Wrong. OAM did not pull guard despite the blind commentators thinking he did. You need to rewatch round 2.

    With 4:15 on the clock in round 2, hernandez is on his back and looking for a single leg on OAM's right leg. Watch OAM jump his left foot behind Hernandez' right armpit to presumably attack an inverted triangle, and he ends up settling for a crucifix type position, which he eventually uses to lock up a kimura and get the takedown.

    The so called guard pull happens with 2:25 left on the clock in round 2. Again, Hernandez is on his back and is looking for a single leg on OAM's right leg. OAM DOES NOT PULL GUARD. OAM looks to do the exact same attack he did at 4:15 by trying to get his left foot behind Hernandez' armpit. He just misses it because Hernandez was able to get posture first.

    There was no guard pull. OAM did not intend to end up on his back. Call it a strategic error for going for a high risk, low % move. But don't call it a guard pull.
     
  4. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Yancy has been beaten down pretty badly in his last few fights. I don’t even think he’ll last three rds
     
  5. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    I like illashaw here. He’s not going to be able to be taken down like Mighty Mouse was. His wrestling is solid. Stand up is much better. Think he will finish within 3rds

    Pretty sure he’s juicing too so I’m sure the weight won’t be too bad for him

    I thought cutelabas opener was pretty good at -135. Maxed that and maxed again at -145

    Glover has a lot of mileage and was brutally beaten by gus, what four months or so ago?

    Cutelaba is a savage, probably juicing

    Only way I see him losing is if he can’t get Glover out early and gasses, which very well could happen

    May be value on Glover at +200
     
  6. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    He's been beaten down but every time it was by hard hitting skilled strikers and he has never actually been KO'd. I don't think Gillespie offers the same threat as any of those fighters that caused those problems. Gregors a totally different style match up and Yancy is pretty much better in every area compared with Gregors last few opponents. The only half decent guy he has faced was Pichel whose TDD is awful.
     
  7. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Fair enough, thanks for the correction. Regardless the point remains that OAM wasn't fighting smart repeatedly going for the same low % risky moves. No different from how women go for the same ridiculous head and arm throw again and again. It just shows a fundamentally low fight IQ.
     
  8. Danis_champ Brown Belt

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    Cory got badly beaten up standing by Iuri before Iuri gave up the reverse triangle. Man if Lineker gets inside I don't want to know what will happen. Only concern is Lineker being a short ass man. Anybody knows how old is Sandhagen?
     
  9. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Hernandez will push Cowboy’s shit in. TJ dominates Cejudo. Hardy murks Crowder. Cutelaba KO’s Glover almost instantly. Gregor destroys Yancy. Sandhagen-Lineker could be a burner though. The rest I have to watch some tape on. I also lean Joey B unless he’s just absolutely done, which I don’t think he is.

    Oh and forgot about JoJo and PVZ. JoJo is going to get her face boxed off. PVZ should handle Ostotits pretty easily imo. Paige sucks but she’s still a tier above Ostovich talent-wise.

    I can’t remember the last time I looked at the lineup of a card and it was this easy to pick the winners.
     
    Last edited: Dec 31, 2018
  10. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    You literally just picked every single favourite.
     
  11. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Yea the lines suck. It’s a shit card to bet. I thought I said that.
     
  12. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Glover fought Gus in 2017, IDK how you can think it was 4 months ago. But yeah what an ass whooping Glover took in that fight, ridiculous amount of punishment. Glover was getting lit up by Cirkunov on the feet too, TD saved him.

    Cutelaba faded against Cannonier, he doesn't usually wrestle offensively but he did in that fight and it costed him a lot of energy. He also wasn't cutting weight properly back then, he's gotten experience since that and matured as a fighter. Still going to be 14 years younger than Glover, much faster, stronger and pushes a relentless pace.

    I like what I saw from Cutelaba vs Antigulov. Stuffed takedowns and even when he was taken down he got up pretty quickly and that was against a Dagestani wrestler with a good submission game.

    I just see Glover taking a beating and getting outworked by the younger guy, getting hurt in the exchanges.

    Glover is old and slow and he's getting faded, looks worse everytime. Future vs the past
     
  13. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    With all my respect, I think you guys having bad reads on almost all fights you wrote about... but I'll try to keep my mouth shut in order not to antagonize the thread. :)
    What Jordan and Wik wrote I liked, rest of it not so much... A lot of you guys falling in love for the hype and willing to pay juice on a lot of fights. I don't get it. It's like we didn't learn the lesson to be extra, extra careful when playing fighter @ steep prices and/or untested prospects. I don't know, guys, lets calm down a bit, lets thing straight and be more realistic with this. Look more in depth both sides of the match-ups you wanna play, see how many edges your fighter realistically has, what is his conditions to win and what is the conditions for the opponent to win, can your fighter still win in the worst case scenario... Things like that.

    Not to just blab without giving an example will say that Sandhagen trains @ Elevation Fight Team. What I noticed so far is that this team looks a lot like Jacksons - EFT and Jacksons have just one of their fighters that is truly amazing - TJ Dillashaw for Elevation and Jon Jones for Jacksons. They have nearly 100% of the resourses concentrated around him and his prep, other fighters don't get to rip the benefits of Duane being there - it seems to be pretty obvious. I don't even think that I saw Duane in the corners of other fighters from that camp (correct me if I'm wrong). So Cory makes a pale imitation of TJ's style, but without the subtleties and without his athleticism too. Cory finished Iuri on the ground, where Iuri is just awful, not a surprise. But the times this fight was actually on the feet he was not good at all IMO. Lineker is gonna pressure him into the fences and will rip the body and then the head, like he always do and will either win a dominant decision or knockout. I don't see it any other way. Unless Cory has some amazing wrestling.
     
  14. Danis_champ Brown Belt

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    {<huh}

    Iuri is not terrible on the ground. He just gassed of trying to finish Cory. Many others fighters would have tapped but Cory let Iuri break his arm. Iuri is very high level black belt. Iuri just gassed and him being terrible on the ground is definitely not the case
     
  15. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Kyle, I would love to see your betting record are you 3rd party tracked?

    You talk with a lot of confidence but you also say some things that are just factually incorrect in your breakdowns. I like your enthusiasm for the fight game and there is nothing wrong with boasting if your as good as you say you are. This goes for everyone, personally I'll respect your opinion a lot more if you can prove how good you are with a legit 3rd party betting record. Besides me and Gugabe I haven't seen anyone here with even a decent record on betmma.

    I know most here are just casual/recreational gamblers and don't bet thousands of dollars. If you take this game more seriously like I do and you're good and can prove it, then I'm interested in your opinion.

    I understand everyone has there own way of capping fights and I'm not saying there is a wrong or a right way to do it. As long as you get profitable results thats what matters, it's about having an effective method/system.
     
  16. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Footage shows otherwise. Yeah, that black belt is smeshed every time he is on the ground. He is submission or bust. He is like Do Bronx, but much worse version of him. 2 minutes into the fight is very hard for me to believe he is that tired. Submission attempt or not. And he is with the UFC since 2011, he had two sub wins - v Sanders, who later showed us how bad is he really to recognise when his leg is in danger and vs Pickett, after he rocked him badly on the feet, then full mounted him on the ground - yeah it's amazing submission win, you have to be Damian Maia to pull off that shit.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  17. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Yuri is not horrible on the ground, and footage does not show otherwise. If he was so bad on the ground, he would have lost to Reis in a fight that hit the ground several times. Since 2012, he's one of 2 guys to sub Pickett who has fought some really tough guys. Issa was coming off two submission wins - including one over Sasaki, and Alcantara survived on the ground in the first only to win on the ground in the last.

    It's also staggering to me how you still underestimate Do Bronx. He's extremely aggressive which can be to a fault, but he is extremely sound technically and a great grappler. Do Bronx has shown prior to submissions or even for an entire fight (Stephens) that he can use positioning well if need be.
     
  18. Danis_champ Brown Belt

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    Check your facts he sub'd Pickett as well

    His transitions are very good you have to be very far from the sport if you don't notice that. Getting pounded in the face on the ground just changes things so much.
     
  19. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    Let's also not forget how much he flip flops on fights. We've seen this from several posters throughout the years, especially ones who like to talk loud. He goes from saying he doesn't see how Corey Anderson wins the fight and that Latifi is one of his more confident picks, then switches over to Anderson. What happens post fight? With Anderson winning, boast on your pick. If Latifi would have won, act like you knew it from the start. He wouldn't be the first poster doing that.

    I have no issue with people changing their mind after tape, but maybe don't be so loud and outrageous about some picks as a newb when you really have no idea until tape watch. He's done this a few times, which basically means that you should never pay attention to him early in a thread.
     
  20. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Will be hitting Cerrone live after 3-4 minutes into the fight. Gets a meme KO out of the way like the Dariush win since I don't rate Hernandez if this turns into an actual kickboxing/grappling match instead of Hernandez just bumrushinghim.
     

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