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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Oh, yeah. You are right. I edited my message. Thanks, Danis!
    So how this black belt is getting pounded so easily? It's not because he is tired, don't give me that bullshit. He wasn't tired in Sanders' fight and he wasn't tired v Cory. I'll tell you why - because he is just hunting for low percentage subs and he leaves his face open. He doesn't use his black belt to stand up or to limit the damage he is taking. He uses it the worst way possible.
     
  2. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Lineker is getting cheaper, Hernandez more expensive...
    [​IMG]
     
  3. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Lol maybe it was four months ago for me. I remember it was for a cookout i went to. I didn’t get my prime rib cheesesteak and I was pretty pissed off.

    Now was this this year or last year? Who knows. It all blends together
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  4. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I like Te Edwards here. While I feel Bermudez is probably being underestimated due to his recent 'losses' going up in weight when he's not a huge featherweight and facing a guy like Edwards doesn't seem smart. Edwards is a bigger stronger guy with a solid wrestling base which will likely cancel out Bermudez own and leave him doing his normal volume striking to a decision tactic. Edwards doesn't have great defence hence Don Madge, a solid, rangey Muay Thai striker and proven finisher did so well but given Bermudez chin has seemed relatively weak in the past anyway and his lack of power striking I wouldn't be surprised if he KO'd Dennis early similar to what Lamas (finished by guillotine but dropped him with a jab hard before) or KZ did after stuffing the initial wrestling threat.

    My main concerns would be Bermudez ability to avoid the KO early and drag Edwards into deepwaters as his the last fight was the longest of his career at just over 1 rounds. Equally though we've seen how effective Bermudez decision winning skills are on his recent run so it could be worse although you can argue the incompetence of the judges. Finally, there's the risk Bermudez is significantly different at 155. I'm pretty doubtful as he never seemed like a big featherweight and I really don't think this a smart decision with a frame like his. Regardless a noticeable power increase or ability to take a shot could be very beneficial in a match up like this.

    Stylistically it just seems like Edwards is a fighter designed to beat Bermudez efficiently while Bermudez is the opposite of everything Don Madge did to beat Edwards in his debut. I'm normally all for favouring experienced guys but so far I've got a 1U on Edwards as the line should continue to shift in his favour slightly (the delay on UK sites has it's benefits) and I'll possibly add or change that once props come out.
     
  5. kevinramsdell Brown Belt

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    VanZant, Hardy, Gillespie via however they please.
     
  6. FimbulFightPicks Purple Belt

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    Hey, what is your betmma profile? Curious to see it. Always interresting to see people who take it very seriously. Gugabe is definitely a top notch bettor, he´s had some really good hits in 2018 like Cejudo pick, some other really good parlays and stuff. Would be neat to see another good betmma profile from here.
     
  7. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    I can’t speak for anyone else but I have absolutely no intention of paying vig on almost all of the favorites. It’s not a good betting card. It’s just a ridiculously easy card to pick straight up winners on, which obviously the betting lines indicate
     
  8. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Cowboy is still very competitive vs most guys at 155 and 170 let alone a blown up featherweight who has got by mainly on aggression.

    Cutelaba was getting handled by a nobody in his last fight till he gassed and his two losses are to Cannonier and Cirkunov, 2 guys Glover dominated relatively recently. Not to mention the only person to ever KO him fast was Rumble and comparing Cutelaba to him is ridiculous.
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  9. Danis_champ Brown Belt

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    Cutelaba was losing that Antigulov fight before Anti gassed badly. Glover will be the bigger and more rounded fighter here. If Glover shows up in any decent shape he should take this easily. Ion might be the younger and hungrier guy but Glover has been winning fights with his veteran experience. Value is on Glover imo.
     
  10. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Every single thread for every single fight card someone says 'it's not a good card for betting' yet the posted bets threads always show winners (sometimes consistently so). Juiced ML's and high confidence should just make it easier to snipe the always-bloated method of victory lines or the other props, no?

    Look no further than the PFL thread yesterday. A couple regulars had picked that Schulte guy, major dog, lots of blowback saying 'no f-ing way'. Aaaand he wins.

    It's MMA. Every card ever is good for betting.
     
  11. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Compared to other sports, of course. It’s not a good card for betting by MMA standards, how about that?
     
  12. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    Don't have one. For all you know I can be full of shit. :)
    I'm not saying I am some top notch bettor. I'm so so. My philosophy in betting is that I put money on things that I am really really sure they'll win. This is not the way to bet and I get it. But this is how I like to do it. Betting to me means you are so sure in the outcome of an event, that you are willing to put money on it.

    One of the few fights that I am starting to see as a really really sure thing is Neal to beat Muhammad. I think Muhammad is an excellent round winner and he really knows how to beat people who like to drift aimlessly in the octagon. No disrespect to Rencountre, Mein, R.Brown or Means, but they all had a glorified sparring matches with Belal for some strange reason. And Belal has this sparring style locked down. The only two times he was put vs some athletic and/or determined to win opponent and he lost both fights. Muhammad is so so in every aspect of the game. Serviceable striking, wrestling not bad, grappling too. But he is not dangerous anywhere. I see he's put on some muscle, but this won't help him in this fight. Geoff Neal is extremely dangerous. He is faster than him with a lot crisper technique, which is a deadly combination. Neal also listens to his corner - I like that a lot. Bottom line I don't think Muhammad's style will work at all vs dangerous and determined to win the fight guys and I tried to fade him two times, this is the 3rd time. So my track record on his fights is not good. But this is not so much of a fade of him, rather than bet on Neal and I am also using the opportunity that public respects Muhammad and they won't bet too much on Neal and I'll get a good price tag on him. Will make my final decision in the next 1-2 days, but so far I got Neal and I think it will look similar to Luque fight.
     
  13. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Pretty good card for betting imo. Classic good lines for betting with legit proven fighters being underrated due to their age against younger fighters. Exactly the kind of thing I look for on a card, seeing guys like Cutelaba as a big favourite over someone like Glover is exactly what I want. Cerrone too has been an underdog in his last 3 fights yet won 2 of the 3 easily and the third was a close decision where he was seriously ill and made him perform relatively badly. His ML and ITD should have great value.
     
  14. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Don't mind this. But those low hands of Alex and the 6'0" versus 5'9" and the bumrush start he likes to do, head kick KO could happen early.
     
  15. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    Dillashaw 3RD/4th KO? Thoughts on this bet?
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2019
  16. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    Compared to UFC 231,Lima upset and UFC 232. This card seems way better. Also with Cory Sandbag as the underdog you never know if he might actual come out with a KO again.
     
  17. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    I like the KO/TKO and ya I think it happens in the first 3 rounds
     
  18. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    PVZ - 6 of 11 fights end ITD.
    Ostovich - 6 of 8 fights end ITD.

    Two mid-tier WMMA who take risks. Already like FDNGTD at +180 (2.80). Gonna like the sub line(s).
     
  19. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I think Hernandez takes Cerrone down whenever he wants so I feel Cerrone needs to finish. I think Hernandez will try to clinch up if hes not completely out but Cerrone is a dangerous grappler so Hernandez may get finished anyway. I think the pressure of Hernandez along with his grappling will take away Cerrones head kick but it will open up Cerrones counterpunching and his knee could still be useful. Cerrone likes to throw punches hes not really committed to when leading to hide his head kick and knee but I suspect he wont be leading too often. He commits to his punches when hes firing back though and I'm sure he will get the chance here. Cerrones power in his punches has been shown at 170 but at 155 it was not as big a factor. On the ground Hernandez is proficient but Cerrone is very slick and fast with his armbar and triangle, he doesnt have to be in guard he can get them in scrambles as well. I think Cerrone will get the armbar or will just allow Hernandez to advance position in the attempt. This could be dangerous for Cerrone since Hernandez has good control, GnP from half guard and side control, hes also quick to take the back if given the opportunity. Cerrones most likely path to victory for me would be SUB but he should have opportunities to KO Hernandez as well. Hernandez is a brown belt, he seems high IQ and he should be looking for the armbar with plans to use it to advance his own position, from there he should dominate. I also see possible opportunities where Hernandez can finish Cerrone if Cerrone tries to lead at any point or if Cerrone cracks under heavy pressure early.
     
  20. GoldenWolf87 Brown Belt

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    Cerrnoe Needs a finish in round one or two, after that i see no hopes. But i think he got this, he wants to make a statement for his future fight with Conor and others.
     

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