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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Gracie Barra Portland is way way better than some Jesus Saves gym in Hawaii, Ostovich is coached by her dad and brother and lacks training partners. PVZ is coached by Fabio Scherner. If you don't know Gracie Barra Portland, it's where Chael Sonnen and Ricky Simon train, it's a solid gym.
     
  2. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Can do that on ML prices by throwing darts at a dartboard, tbh.
     
  3. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Well I guess thats what everyone should start doing then

    When you are you going to get a big boy bankroll Gugabe? I see you still betting parlays and props SMH, still stuck in that 3 figure range.

    You could be making bank like me
     
  4. Wiktoruspro Brown Belt

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    I rewatched Belals and Geofs last fights and I have to say that Belals style makes into favour for Geof who is a counter puncher.
     
  5. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    I'm actually up to turning over about $8-10k an event between my stuff and investors. There's enough Australian books to get money down on props, too. Not necessarily a longterm solution, but I can get on to most conventional props to win 3-4k if I feel the need. Usually books tend to limit MLs and props at the exact same rate in my meandering experience, too.

    I'm also not the guy who's only made 10u since the start of July.
     
  6. raketmannen Brown Belt

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    Hernandez has been very critical of his performance there and how he prepared for it. Said he went way to hard warming up and "peaked" 30 minutes before he was about to walkout and said that affected his endurance in the fight. He was on Anik and Florians podcast this week and talked about it if you want to listen
     
  7. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Australian books are terrible and notorious for limiting players, they're pretty much all just big corp Euro bookies. Even Sportsbet which is actaully Paddy Power, start betting 4 figures and winning on sportsbet props and watch what happens to your account. I'm surprised your not limited to peanuts already, they didn't take long with me.

    Now I only bet with one book and it's great, don't have to worry about limits and I get reduced juice. I've got like 15 sports betting accounts and they're pretty much all limited to peanuts, I don't use any of them anymore. I remember when I struggled to get my stakes on and would have to spread my money out over several accounts to make one play. Betting MMA with Aussie bookies is a short term solution if you wanna make real money, only a matter of time till you're limited everywhere.

    If you really had a big bankroll and bet 4 figures on everything you wouldn't be betting props /parlays and playing with Aussie books. I know this very well.

    You have investors though?
     
  8. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Would rather not get into exactly how I circumvent, but my 'main' is limited to win $50 on all MMA markets on SB, I've been straight-up kicked off a few books. There's difficulties involved, but I've had the contacts to get shit going regardless. Old trading buddy of mine's one of the biggest players in the AFL/NRL markets, so he's given me some great advice on getting set-up and reducing limits. His yearly turnover's about 2 million, a lot of which is through Commercial Books. Also got Pinny access through other means.
     
  9. Dianabol Blue Belt

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    Yeah I stopped playing with SB when they limited me to $100, which isn't really a harsh limit compared to what other books have done. SB is probably the best Aussie book (even though it's really a Euro book), they let me go a lot longer and make more than the other big corp bookies did.

    AFL/NRL is a lot easier to get money on because they are more mainstream sports in AUS and hence more money gets wagered on it. MMA is more of a niche market and you'll stick out like a sore thumb if you're killing them. AUS only has 25 million people too, despite sports betting being popular, it's a small population compared to other countries where sports betting is popular, less people, less money wagered, smaller markets. If you got contacts to make stuff happen and get around limits then you're fortunate.

    Pinnacle is god but they aren't available in AUS anymore, you have to go through a bet broker.

    I also love betting exchanges and I hope they get more popular in the future. Betfair still sucks for MMA, not much liquid unless it's a big fight. Matchbook is much better for MMA but not available in AUS.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  10. Gugabe Purple Belt

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    Actually a NZ & UK citizen through my parents, which has made things quite a bit easier on the international front. Yeah. SB only really killed my limits after I hit that +17500 Smith Sub3 prop and was mauling them on arbs for a while.
     
  11. t6p Brown Belt

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    As far as I know we haven't seen Cerrone outwrestled or outgrappled since his WEC fights against Varner and Bendo back in 2008-09. To be fair, not many have tried but his tdd did look solid relatively recently against Story and Edwards, who are much bigger/stronger than Hernandez. I'm not sure that Hernandez will be able to hold Cerrone down either even if he is having success with his takedowns.

    Personally, I feel Cerrone is in the most danger early in the fight. He's typically a slow starter and I think a blitz from Hernandez a la the Dariush fight is definitely in play. I also don't necessarily agree that Cerrone needs a finish. He can win rounds standing, score with sub attempts from bottom or even potentially get his own wrestling going imo.

    I think your breakdown is fair overall though, but I'm not sure I see the justification for a 3u bet on Hernandez at -175. It sounds like you're giving Cerrone a decent chance at getting a finish and it feels like there are some question marks around Hernandez still. I cap Cerrone as a very slight fav, so I have 2u on him at +176.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  12. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    I'm probably going to end up just betting his KO or R1 prop because of what you say, I normally favour experienced, proven guys way more and rarely up and comers but Bermudez really has screwed himself with this match up.
     
  13. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Yeah it's impressive how he evaluates himself, thanks for the recommendation I'll check it out.
     
  14. Larthus Orange Belt

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    I just want to be able to profit off the rise of Gregor Gillespie but his lines always make it impossible ;_;
     
  15. Card Silver Belt

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  16. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    I'm very cautious of letting fighters' smart talk, in interviews or elsewhere, into my evaluation of them as a fighters and their fight IQ. I'll give you Paul Felder as an example - the guy is very articulate on the broadcast (he went to acting school) makes smart observations and analysis. But when it comes to his own fights he is stuck in one place since he debuted in the organization. He made I would say a half step forward after Pearson loss and stayed there, I feel he really didn't want to lose any more fights, (he was afraid of being cut maybe) and finally came to the realisation that his striking alone won't do it in the UFC and started to mix it up more. But that's it. Another fighter that is saying really smart things in interviews is actually Mike Perry. But he is using his brain a bit too much. He can't seem to understand that his bodytype is not made for technical fighting, a lot of movement and evasive footwork is just too difficult for him to pull it off, it will take years of training combined with fighting very low ranked opponents (or just fight on the local scene) for him to be able make a complete style change. He is a knockout artist and should just concentrate on cutting off the octagon and get close and what he need for this is precise presure footwork (so he don't tire too much) and to rip the body a lot - a Lineker type of game if you will, this is gonna suit him perfectly.

    So I don't buy it, 'till I see a real life proof. If you talk smart, but what I actually see from you in the octagon is totally different animal fight after fight, what I would say is that you are trying to coach yourself... and this rarely works.

    So, guys, don't fall for the smart looking guys, look at tape first. ;)
     
  17. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    See this worries me when looking to convince myself to bet Cerrone in a nice dog spot. The book is absolutely written on him so it's pretty easy to see how each fight plays out. Donald excels against big dumb idiots - Mike Perry, Yancy, Cowboy Oliveira. Those guys are stupid fighters and Cerrone mauled them. I think Alex is pretty smart. He'll have the gameplan ready to beat Cowboy - be boring, lean on him against the cage, work the body, be boring again. He's an arrow-up fighter with a lot of momentum going his way. Even though I think Cerrone is better he can definitely lose to a lesser fighter, like Alex is imo, that exploits his all-too-known weaknesses.
     
  18. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Got through some tape over the Holidays and put 3.5u on Brown -235. Chance is just not very good. Low volume, weak wrestling, hittable and will be fighting at a reach disadvantage for what I believe will be his first time ever, and a 4" one at that. Brown isn't a world beater, but he is better in every facet here. He should easily peice Chance up on the feet, possible mixing in some body lock tds and top control.

    I agree there are some questions regarding Neal's tdd and clearly hasn't had a ton of high level expereince, but Belal tends to need to get his striking going before setting up tds and that spells disaster here. Neal is too fast and too powerful for Belal on the feet and I think he gets sparked early. Put 1.5u Neal -145 and interested in his KO and rd1 props. Against two other powerful strikers, Luque, he got oblierated early, and Jouban, he got dropped multiple times in the 1st.

    Also on Dilly for what was a max bet, but now is 3.75u after raising my unit size again, haven't done full tape yet, but obviously very familar with both and as long as the weight cut doesn't kill him he should peice Cejudo up without much issue.

    Interested in Lineker, Cerrone, Lipski, and Ostovich.
     
  19. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    What intrigues you about Ostovich?
     
  20. MidgardSerpent Black Belt

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    Not really related to betting, but it always make me chuckle when people bringing that up. Paul Felder going to acting school is as much an accomplishment as Britney Palmer going to art school, if you don't have any meaningful work to show or are consistently working on improving your craft you're basically a glamorized hobbyist waving a piece of paper to qualify yourself.
     

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