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UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Stunna77 Brown Belt

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    Will obvisouly go into further detail after tape, but pretty simply, she can wrestle and outmuscle PVZ on the mat.
     
  2. Card Silver Belt

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    training with 7 black belts, hitting mitts, training sun up to sun down

     
  3. Card Silver Belt

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  4. Naught2Sixty Red Belt

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    <mma4>

    I'll keep a lookout for that in particular when I go to watch. I know PVZ can float on top and advance ok against people who cant wrestle for shit like Chambers (who also is a small SW) but couldn't do much against a stiff hipped lady in JRC and even got caught in a triangle.
     
  5. Ryan Kelly Green Belt

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    Is there a price anywhere on these? Kinda hard to say without knowing that. Isn’t available yet on the books I use yet.
     
  6. ClipYourDirtyWings The Best is Blessed

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    Ariane’s a babe, that’s all I know. Well, that and she’s going to beat JoJo like she stole something
     
  7. DevilsPt2 Minion

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    I think wrestling is the part of the game that I am best at assessing so I cant be moved into believing Cerrone is going to sprawl and brawl to a DEC win. I can see Cerrone attempting takedowns but I dont see him getting any, in fact if he tries I think he ends up on his back. On the ground I dont think either will be content, Cerrone will try to sub Hernandez and Hernandez will be actively trying to advance his position out of guard. I dont think too many rounds have been won by attempting subs off your back either. Cerrone may be able to get back to his feet but I'm not sure he can, how often or if he can avoid being put immediately back down. I dont think Cerrone runs away with it standing either unless he gets the KO. Of course I would give Cerrone a decent shot at getting a finish but thats all I give him, I think he has 20-30% chance of finishing, so I put Hernandez in the -250 to -400 range.

    I also dont agree that because Story and Edwards are bigger than Hernandez, they are stronger. It's about explosive movement. Someone may have a higher stats in the weight room but when applied in real life scenarios, someone who trains in explosive movements will throw them around on a wrestling mat. Imagine trying to pick up an object slow and controlled and trying to launch that same object into the air.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  8. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    I think Hernandez would rather outmuscle and pin Cerrone on the fence and work the weakpoint that is his body as opposed to go for actual takedowns. Cerrone can be lulled to sleep by boredom and/or frustration. I really want to play Cerrone at dog odds but I keep moving toward Hernandez decision as my play here.
     
  9. Kyle Stephens Purple Belt

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    He is articulate. I think this can't be denied. I bringed it up because of just that. I know hobbyists like him that spend time in acting school, if nothing else you learn to speak properly.
     
  10. thewiggo Yellow Belt

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    I like the below (hopefully should get decent lines) :-

    Hernandez DEC
    Belal/Neal GTD
    Dillashaw Round 4/5 or DEC (alternative method of victory)
    PVZ SUB/DEC double chance
    Brown ITD
    Crowder/Hardy O1.5

    Havent made any plays just yet.
     
  11. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but looking back the only guy in Cerrone's whole UFC career who could takedown Cerrone and have any measure of success against him was RDA in there first fight over 5 years ago. Bare in mind RDA was a big lightweight with a legit 2nd Degree black belt at the time with great wrestling on top and he barely landed 2 takedowns and spent the whole time fighting off subs while landing enough GNP to win the first 2 rounds.

    Obviously the belt system doesn't translate over directly but it shows the level of grappling it takes to win against Cerrone and I don't see how Hernandez is anywhere near that level, he doesn't even seem to train out of the Gi and is only a brown belt with 2 sub wins and was competitive grappling with OAM. Aside from being a great athlete and having good pressure which Cerrone can be susceptible too I really don't see skill for skill how Hernandez is close to Cerrone at all.
     
  12. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    This, along with heavy power, is his kryptonite though, no? We know Hernandez can hit hard. I agree Hern is a lesser fighter (at least right now) but his best attributes are what Cerrone has typically lost to.
     
  13. Austisthunder Banned Banned

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    I’ll be damned if your gonna write a novel critiquing me without @Ing me u dweeb
    I’ve been here a week and I already know 2 fade ur ass
     
  14. Jordan3399 Brown Belt

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    Does he have that good power? He has the one KO which was Dariush who has been KO'd multiple times and other than that he has a few TKO's against mediocre competition out of the UFC. Cerrone has been rocked and finished on the feet by Masvidal and Till (The Masvidal one was a few weeks after his war with Matt Brown too.) all his other TKO losses were body shots. So it's not like Cerrone has a glass jaw or even a weak one. Ofc Hernandez could get an early KO but I really don't see it as a big concern even if he comes out hard looking for it I don't see how he'll succeed when Lawler did the same thing and completely failed. Masvidal and Till succeed by pressuring and countering with a lot of technique not just rushing in like Hernandez likes too.
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  15. piglord Black Belt

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    lipski is going to fuck jojo up.
     
  16. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    Cowboy flirting with the +200 mark.

    I don’t believe in hernandez that much to be paying that kind of juice

    Cerrone is a way better striker than anyone he’s ever faced

    He’s fought way better guys in multiple weight classes.

    Cowboys tdd is pretty decent and He’s very dangerous off his back. His jiu jitsu is way better and he can show the young hernandez some things he’s never seen. Oam was able to sweep him with a kimura pretty easily

    Cowboy also has a good Thai clinch. Hernandez could find himself in that plum if he implements what looks to be his typical gameplan which is pressing against the cage shooting for doubles

    Yea Hernandez could probably outpoint him if he stays away from cowboys subs and stays inside of him striking, but I wouldn’t bet him at current prices

    I just don’t think he’s there yet to be able to take a crafty vet like cerrone out
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2019
  17. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    No, I'm not worried about a regular KO, more so meant bodywork leading to Cerrone kinda quitting, and even this I don't really see happening. But while I want to play +Cerrone, I'm more worried that Hernandez will employ one of the two gameplans that Cerrone consistently loses to. In Hern's case, outworking him to a decision.
     
  18. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    It's nice to see someone else not liking PVZ. If PVZ doesn't have a clinch advantage, then I don't like her in most fights. Especially as a fav.
     
  19. ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling Banned

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    She does have a striking advantage and their wrestling could nullify out

    Ostovich definitely bigger and stronger though Paige is more atheletic
     
  20. Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Can absolutely see either one arm-barring the other. They both aren't good, both take risks.
     

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