UFN 143 on ESPN+ 1 Cejudo vs Dillashaw

[edole]

I think I am going to bet Hernandez and hedge with Cerrone by sub.

There will likely be alot of grappling in this fight and I dont see how else Cerrone wins to be honest.

Hernandez is a brown belt and says he has been training with a bunch of black belts (as you would expect from any UFC fighter). I think Hernandez is smart and calculated and has the tools to win this fight if he can stay out of a sub.

 

[Stunna77]

I think I am going to bet Hernandez and hedge with Cerrone by sub.

There will likely be alot of grappling in this fight and I dont see how else Cerrone wins to be honest.

Hernandez is a brown belt and says he has been training with a bunch of black belts (as you would expect from any UFC fighter). I think Hernandez is smart and calculated and has the tools to win this fight if he can stay out of a sub.

Cerrone almost always has three paths to victory IMO, he is way too well rounded to think he can't KO or win a dec here.

 

[Gugabe]

I think I am going to bet Hernandez and hedge with Cerrone by sub.

There will likely be alot of grappling in this fight and I dont see how else Cerrone wins to be honest.

Hernandez is a brown belt and says he has been training with a bunch of black belts (as you would expect from any UFC fighter). I think Hernandez is smart and calculated and has the tools to win this fight if he can stay out of a sub.

Hernandez' defensive striking is pretty raw. He's got that Volkanovski sort of a thing where everything feeds off everything else so long as he keeps coming forward. Could be the skillset to blast Cerrone off his feet, but could also rapidly go to shit if he gets tired or Cerrone ever starts coming forward.

Physical decline from Hernandez as he spends longer in the USADA testing pool also wouldn't shock me. Dude glows green faintly under a blacklight.

 

[Jordan3399]

No, I'm not worried about a regular KO, more so meant bodywork leading to Cerrone kinda quitting, and even this I don't really see happening. But while I want to play +Cerrone, I'm more worried that Hernandez will employ one of the two gameplans that Cerrone consistently loses to. In Hern's case, outworking him to a decision.

Going to the body on Cerrone isn't as easy as people make out only RDA and Pettis managed it and both of them have a killer left kick from southpaw. Leon Edwards tried that kick repeatedly and didn't achieve anything significant. He just won the decision on volume when Cerrone was sick af.

I think Hernandez could get a decision by outworking him but given guys like Lawler, RDA, Edwards only just did that and the fact that the whole time Hernandez is at risk of getting finished I wouldn't want to bet on it. Those guys had solid striking, wrestling, BJJ plus are a lot bigger than Hern and had to use all of it in order to win rounds. Cerrone is getting undervalued here cause of his losses with no consideration as to how competitive those losses were or the calibre of fighter it took to cause them.

 

[Austisthunder]

Cerrone almost always has three paths to victory IMO, he is way too well rounded to think he can't KO or win a dec here.

The realization that this fight has 5 seemingly realistic outcomes : Cowboy by sub , KO, and decision
And Hernandez by decision/ KO tells me I wanna stay out of this one i think

 

[edole]

Cejudo fought a perfect fight to squeak by DJ, who he is significantly bigger than. If TJ makes the weight comfortably, he should come away with the W imo.

 

[ill800]

Was watching de la rosa vs Ostovich

I had the fight even going into the third. Thought ostovich was winning the round until she decided to roll onto her belly from de la rosas side control instead of trying to get back to guard.

I guess she was fatigued from going for the arm bar and losing position. Dunno if she thought she’d be able to get up from doing what she did or What, but it didn’t work out well for her. I had her winning that rd up until then

Her tdd is also questionable for me. Whizzer into judo throw? Seems like she’s vulnerable to getting her back taken using that defense. It worked for her in that fight but someone quicker and more atheletic might be able to jump on her back

First rd her output was horrible. She basically gave that rd away by doing nothing. 2nd rd she started to let her hands go and had a good bit of success agaibst de la rosa, who at that point was getting by on her jab. Later in the rd de la rosa started to find a home for her counter left hook.

Ostovich s fight iq seems to be pretty low.

Paige seems like she’s way grittier and has more fight iq as well as better standup

 

[edole]

Was watching de la rosa vs Ostovich

I had the fight even going into the third. Thought ostovich was winning the round until she decided to roll onto her belly from de la rosas side control instead of trying to get back to guard.

I guess she was fatigued from going for the arm bar and losing position. Dunno if she thought she’d be able to get up from doing what she did or What, but it didn’t work out well for her. I had her winning that rd up until then

Her tdd is also questionable for me. Whizzer into judo throw? Seems like she’s vulnerable to getting her back taken using that defense. It worked for her in that fight but someone quicker and more atheletic might be able to jump on her back

First rd her output was horrible. She basically gave that rd away by doing nothing. 2nd rd she started to let her hands go and had a good bit of success agaibst de la rosa, who at that point was getting by on her jab. Later in the rd de la rosa started to find a home for her counter left hook.

Ostovich s fight iq seems to be pretty low.

I was actually somewhat impressed with her punching combos in the 2nd round lol

problem is, PVZ doesnt stay at range. She circles on the outside until she decides to dart in with something she saw off of the original Karate Kid and then darts back out. Rachel will likely have a hard time finding a rhythm in the standup against this type of style with those short little arms.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Rachel will likely have a hard time finding a rhythm in the standup against this type of style with those short little arms.

haha if you squint they kinda pass for bro and sis

 

[Dianabol]

And this is why LOL

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I think I am going to bet Hernandez and hedge with Cerrone by sub.

There will likely be alot of grappling in this fight and I dont see how else Cerrone wins to be honest.

Hernandez is a brown belt and says he has been training with a bunch of black belts (as you would expect from any UFC fighter). I think Hernandez is smart and calculated and has the tools to win this fight if he can stay out of a sub.

Hm thats a bad bet though. Cerrone is here to make a statement and a win in a week from now or so, will just show that.
But again its always good idea to have a back up bet. Just in case.

Everyone was super high on Perry. Doubted Cerrone to win in his own home turf. But now Cerrone has a kid so i am pretty sure he wants to fight for the money for his family lol.

Like most fighters do.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Why are the odds for Te edwards so low? 105? lolz
But yet for Gregor Gillespie is way to much.

Te Edwards 105+
Gregor Gillespie 550+

That is way to much lolz.

 

[Gugabe]

Why are the odds for Te edwards so low? 105? lolz
But yet for Gregor Gillespie is way to much.

Te Edwards 105+
Gregor Gillespie 550+

That is way to much lolz.

You think Edwards should be a bigger favorite? Why?

He's only really shown a big right hand so far and Bermudez might be getting old, but he's cutting less weight and he's a legitimately skilled fighter.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

You think Edwards should be a bigger favorite? Why?

He's only really shown a big right hand so far and Bermudez might be getting old, but he's cutting less weight and he's a legitimately skilled fighter.

You think Edwards should be a bigger favorite? Why?

Not a bigger favorite. But just close enough it seems everyone is doubting Te Edwards just because he lost to Madge. And yeah in that fight Madge did look better standing then Edwards but
Edwards still has the ability of finishing and size. So we shall see.

 

[starfish01]

Edwards is fast and a ok wrestler but looks absolutely clueless fighting going backwards or off back foot. Bermudez competent everywhere and likes to pressure, but is tiny in terms of height/reach especially at lightweight. Worries me that Bermudez often has trouble getting inside boxing with normal sized featherweights, dunno how hes going to be able to connect often with a 6 inch reach disadvantage instead of his usual 3-4, most of his offense that actually lands might be leg kicks? I think Bermudez can keep Edwards on the back foot or busy with grappling exchanges(on cage or on mat) to grind out a decision. However Bermudez gets caught alot in exchanges when he slacks off on pressure cause he wings his tiny ass arms or ducks his head for the TD and Edwards is specifically good at taking advantage of that cause he has speed and length. So if Bermudez shits the bed(which he's done before) and slags off on pressure too much Edwards could get a KO or come off doing more damage because of his speed and length advantage to edge out a decision. Think the odds are about right with Bermudez as a slight fave. Dont think Edwards climbs much higher up the FW division even if he wins though.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Anyone have good read on Lineker fight? I think I'll bet him and Neal in a combo with maxbet, but have to be 110% sure they both will win... Can't decide yet. Pls help you guys

 

[null]

I like Cerrone ML here at the underdog price and the obvious hedge would be Hernandez round 1 and/or Hernandez KO/TKO. Cowboy is a big step up, I am not going to count him out here. He could win by KO, sub or decision potentially.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Anyone have good read on Lineker fight? I think I'll bet him and Neal in a combo with maxbet, but have to be 110% sure they both will win... Can't decide yet. Pls help you guys

Dont bet against Sandhagen, he might pull here a upset. He is super tough.

 

[Oblivian]

She does have a striking advantage and their wrestling could nullify out

Ostovich definitely bigger and stronger though Paige is more atheletic

I was on De La Rosa against her, and honestly, I didn't like how the striking was going. Ostovich was throwing a lot harder than I expected.

I still haven't made a play here. I don't really rate PVZ higher anywhere technically, but I think she's incredibly tough, has a high pace, and has cardio. I think that could be the biggest factor and make it harder for Ostovich to walk away with a victory. I would be absolutely shocked if PVZ has an easy time though or outclasses in any area.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Usually dont go big on a prop but i'm gonna be big on Hardy ITD. Crowder suuuuuuuucks and got blasted into "who the fuck just hit me" space by Big Pretty. Hardy's got question marks for days in terms of any aspect of mma besides he punches hard but I have hard time seeing crowder avoiding getting hit and not surviving if/when he does get tagged. Fight feels like a gimme for Hardy.