UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[Jordan3399]

This is a tough one. Because of Frotas cardio issues, it would make sense that she gets finished late. So maybe a rd2/Rd3 play will be better value. But Souza is not really a huge finishing threat past Rd1 either. And Frota is probably savvy enough to not be finished by a submission late in a fight if it's just Souza on top of her. Frota apparently has the grappling accolades and maybe she can last much longer on the mat than in striking. I can see the two canceling each other out so a decision is definitely possible.

Souza was still jumping guillotines are going for subs in the 5th vs Hill and also got a 4th round triangle vs Katja. On the other hand when Frota gassed in that split dec win she looked completely useless and any vaguely competent fighter would of finished her. Her opponent was just that awful. Both have cardio issues but Frota's are far worse and if she gets a finish its far more likely to be in the first while Souza can finish any time in the fight.

 

[Jordan3399]

I like to extol the virtues of watching old-school MMA even if the fighters are no longer competing and modern matches look very different.

One thing we learn from these early contests is that while size certainly matters, it's always less so than we think, and the combatants have to be very close in skill level for it to decide the outcome. I don't think Frota and Souza are close in skill level, especially when factoring in cardio.

Exactly, even if Frota is legit 20 pounds heavier than Souza I still don't favour her at all given stylistically the fight is so heavily in favour of Souza and she is so much more skilled. While not stylistically similar she uses her size the same as undersized guys like Edgar, DJ, Cormier etc. speed and movement on the feet and if that fails then dump the big guy on his ass and use the weight against them. Even Souza issues like throwing the overhand right too much are to her advantage here given Frota has zero effective defence to it and isn't a good enough striker to counter it.

 

[Jordan3399]

Thiago Alves is fighting in his hometown for the first time since his debut 18 years ago against a teenage 2-0 Gleison Tibau where he lost by armbar in R2. Doubt it exists but if there's footage of that fight it would be funny to watch for sure.

I'll take it as a solid confidence boost in Alves too, he's only actually fought once out of Brazil (Against Condit) since 2003 so must be seriously motivated to do well.

 

[Oblivian]

Did ESPN+ lag or run choppy for anyone? I watched on my PC last time and it was fine. I just downloaded the app on my firestick and everything runs shitty. All other apps that I use are fine.

 

[clemente]

How is Johnny 1.5? And KO for him is 3? Is Ledet really that good or Johnny overrated?

 

[edole]

Did ESPN+ lag or run choppy for anyone? I watched on my PC last time and it was fine. I just downloaded the app on my firestick and everything runs shitty. All other apps that I use are fine.

I streamed it on my phone and used chromecast to put it on the tv. It seemed fine, although probably a couple seconds behind the live stream.

 

[t6p]

Did ESPN+ lag or run choppy for anyone? I watched on my PC last time and it was fine. I just downloaded the app on my firestick and everything runs shitty. All other apps that I use are fine.

I’m running mine on an old Firestick and everything’s been smooth. Much better quality than Fightpass for me.

 

[Dooze]

How is Johnny 1.5? And KO for him is 3? Is Ledet really that good or Johnny overrated?

I think the odds are skewed due to Walker having a quick finish against Rountree and Ledet getting mauled by Raktic, but think this fight is definitely a better match up for Ledet than the Raktic one.

In that (I am going off memory however), Raktic took Ledet down a lot and didn't really give Ledet a sniff. Ledet is at his best when the fight is on the feet and he can get his boxing going, he's got a really nice jab and can control fights with it.

Walker from the little I've seen of him seems like a super aggressive and extremely wild striker with decent power. I'm expecting an initial onslaught where he'll try and get another early finish and just pressure Ledet, try to get him up near the cage and into a telephone booth style range where he'll throw some wild hooks, elbows and flying knees.

If Ledet can survive that first 2 minutes, I think his chances should improve considerably. Vast majority of Walkers wins are quick finishes but he's a big muscular guy, I don't think it's a pace he can keep up for 15 minutes - I'd struggle to think of any LHW who can. If the pace and pressure ends up slowing from Walker after that onslaught, I think Ledet could then start to get his hands going, keep a bit of distance with his jab and start to take control of a slower paced fight by landing cleaner punches.

One thing I'd say for Ledet is well, that last fight showed he can take some punishment and won't necessarily look for a way out if he is hurt. He couldn't really offer anything off his back in that fight against Raktic, but I think a lot of people would have just accepted that they weren't winning that fight and just stopped to force the ref to step in and save them; he didn't there and in a few fights before that he took some decent shots without too much issue so that kind of gives a bit of hope that he could potentially survive that initial onslaught and find his way back into the fight.

I dunno if livebetting is available for this one, but if you want to bet Ledet and it is, I'd wait until a couple of minutes in because he'll very likely be at much better odds and if he gets finished, it'll likely be during those first few minutes.

 

[thewiggo]

Few good plays for this card for the price :

Rozenstruik DEC @5/1 -
Can see him outpointing Albini once he stuffs a couple of early takedowns. Although he is rather green by MMA standards, he has a fantastic record in kickboxing and is a winner. Albini will not like getting pieced up once his takedown attempts fail, and will be bullied over the distance at a fairly slow paced kickboxing exhibition.


Good DEC @ 8/1 -
Good could well end up getting the KO in this one if he is able to stuff Maia’s takedowns, however I think with fighting in Brazil he will be able to draw from the crowd and keep himself going.
The way I see this going is a cage hugging affair, in the breaks Good land some decent strikes only to be clinched again.
Although that type of fight could be scored either way, especially in Brazil, I’m willing to pay a little @8/1.


Bibulatov ITD @ 21/10 -
From tape Bibulatov is a level above his opponent, and I see this being a one sided beating. With current odds at over 2/1 for him to finish, its good value.

Talia Santos TKO/KO @ 5/1 -
Has been compared to as the “female Barboza”. Has pretty effective leg kicks and 10 TKO/KO’s in 15 pro fights, albeit against some cans.
Definitely worth sprinkling a bit on this prop.


Thiago Alves TKO/KO @ 7.5/1
Thiago Alves RD3 TKO/KO 28/1 -
Thiago Alves will be motivated to perform well in his childhood Forteleza. The crowd will be behind him and he will be keen to impress. I’ve never been overly impressed by Griffin, but he does have a good output.
I’m seeing a kickboxing vs boxing affair, maybe a couple of takedowns landed by Griffin. If it hits the judges though you better know it’s going to Alves.


Teymur RD 2 TKO/KO @ 12/1
Hoping Charles quits once he figures he can’t take Teymur down. We know he doesn’t like taking these punches and has looked for a way out in some of his losses.
Slightly concerned that he has never lost in Brazil, but I am quite sure he loses this one.

Assuncao SUB @ 12/1
Has taught BJJ and has an impressive submission variety. I think after the very close decision last time around, he will be trying to ensure this doesn’t go the distance just in case. Sub in my opinion is the path of least resistance for him.

Ledet ITD @ 10/3
Could go either way this one, but Walkers chin hasn’t been tested in the UFC, and if Ledet can withstand the initial flurry from Walker, he will be testing that chin you best believe. If he does.. don’t think Walkers going to be able to take many.

Nurmagomedov ML @ 11/10
Love Nurm in this one. I am really impressed with Ramos and his finish of Zahabi was masterful. However... I think Nurm will be able to negate Ramos’s brazen talent by hugging him for three rounds, potentially snatching a RNC at some point.

 

[LiquidNuke]

This is some low level shit right here.

 

[Jordan3399]

This is some low level shit right here.

And thats the favourite over a girl that should really be top 5 in the division.

 

[LiquidNuke]

And thats the favourite over a girl that should really be top 5 in the division.

I have a hard time overlooking the fact that she was stopped on strikes three times in a row back in 2015.... seems like she has a fundamental defense or durability problem. What is she going to do when those leg kicks start chopping her down?

I think she needs to tie Santos up early and really commit to keeping her on the mat.

 

[Guffman]

This is some low level shit right here.

Yikes! You don't see a fight like that everyday.

 

[clemente]

How is Maia the favorite? Only way to victory I see for him is by sub, Good is just younger and stronger, in case of the decision I don't think Maia can keep Good on his back to collect 2 rnds.

 

[Jordan3399]

I have a hard time overlooking the fact that she was stopped on strikes three times in a row back in 2015.... seems like she has a fundamental defense or durability problem. What is she going to do when those leg kicks start chopping her down?

I think she needs to tie Santos up early and really commit to keeping her on the mat.

I was worried by that then looked and she looked like a completely different fighter then and the only time she actually got rocked was by Elmose who has a big right hand and landed flush, the other 2 were GNP and a doctor stoppage. Santos KOs are mostly over absolute cans via GNP anyway so she isn't much of a threat too.

Santos leg kicks are massively overrated too tbh, throws them almost all without a set up and is open to have them all countered with a big right hand or takedown. It makes her look like vintage Aldo vs cans but against any competent fighter she'll suffer for it badly for it.

 

[Soccer Steve]

How is Maia the favorite? Only way to victory I see for him is by sub, Good is just younger and stronger, in case of the decision I don't think Maia can keep Good on his back to collect 2 rnds.

All your questions, and more!, have been discussed at length already.

 

[null]

Did ESPN+ lag or run choppy for anyone? I watched on my PC last time and it was fine. I just downloaded the app on my firestick and everything runs shitty. All other apps that I use are fine.

The stream ran very choppy in my browser, both Firefox and Chrome, and outright stopped multiple times for me on my desktop during the main card last time which was very annoying. Multiple people told me that it ran much better in an app since the browser is resource intensive.

 

[edhan]

Did ESPN+ lag or run choppy for anyone? I watched on my PC last time and it was fine. I just downloaded the app on my firestick and everything runs shitty. All other apps that I use are fine.

I've had ESPN+ since launch and I've only run into issues/lag on FireStick. It's so much better on PC/AppleTV/iPhone

 

[Oblivian]

The stream ran very choppy in my browser, both Firefox and Chrome, and outright stopped multiple times for me on my desktop during the main card last time which was very annoying. Multiple people told me that it ran much better in an app since the browser is resource intensive.

I've had ESPN+ since launch and I've only run into issues/lag on FireStick. It's so much better on PC/AppleTV/iPhone

See this is what is interesting about it. It was running really bad on my firestick - like intolerable. My PC was pretty good. It's just interesting how all of these different mediums to stream can run shitty for some and good for others. I never had an issue at all with Fight Pass, but I see a lot of others have issues with it.

 

[TITS]

What are the odds of Johnny Walker getting his head bounced off the canvas?