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UFN 81 - play by play / discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 17, 2016.

  1. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Defo need to get back to basics and stop trying to be too cute. Last two shows that has bit me in the arse.

    First show of the year i bailed on a 3 team parlay as KG pulled out. Should have kept the other two and swallowed a smaller return. Instead i tried to be clever and went big on Larkin. Now he had all the value but going big on that fight was stupid in hindsight. I also went huge on a poor fighter in Noke lb his last fight. That totally went against my normal betting principles.

    Yesterdays show i had Pettis and Pearson. I dont regret Pettis as i didnt think Alvarez would be able to RDA him but Pearson i was really worried about i even hedged before the fight which i never do. My plays are normally very confident again i tried to be cute and even greedy as Pearson's line kept dropping which kept tempting me.

    Sticking to confident plays again moving forward no more trying to be too clever. Very confident in AJ and Tarec next show.
     
  2. trident Water Belt

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    Breaks my heart, he is one of my all time favorites, but he cant handle the wrestling pressure, at least at 155.

    He has never looked large for a LW. Could he make 145? If he can he should consider it.
     
  3. trident Water Belt

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    Eddie winning made me feel much better about losing my parlay for this night.

    Cruz winning brings me one step closer to $10k payoff, all that is left is the surging Ryan Bader.

    If Bader can survive the early blitzkriegs from Rumble, i think he has a real chance to grind out AJ for a late finish or boring decision.

    Damn fight is two weeks away and i am already clammy handed.
     
  4. TimCoreCombat Green Belt

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    Ended up about even with Cruz winning.

    Pettis losing crushed me from having a great night. I just assumed Izzy would have had his wrestling on point. I should have at least hedged with an Alvarez decision. That's my fault though.

    On to the next one...
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    I'd normally be cheering for you but I am big on AJ.
     
  6. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Hope everyone did well. After looking back at the 'post your bets' thread last night I saw EZ KILLED it!!! Grats man

    Luckily all of my biggest bets coming through made it a good night, don't think my percentage on winning picks was all too good. Cruz by dec, Cruz livebet after round 1, Cote, Trinaldo dec, and o2.5 for Elvis - Barroso made it profitable for me
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    ;) thx, NDC

    thx, joseph, too

    grats all winners!
     
  8. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yea he wanted to fight aldo a couple years ago etc
     
  9. Bless Orange Belt

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    Woooh awesome card! Ended up being the most profitable card to date for me, up about 12 units. Mainly thanks to everyone in this thread, thanks a lot guys!
     
  10. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Interested to know how you guys scored the main event? It was a bit tough for me to keep track when I was at a friend's and the pace was ridiculous, but I had it 48-47 Cruz
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    rd 1 cruz (close)
    rd 2 cruz
    rd 3 cruz
    rd 4 tj
    rd 5 tj (close

    48-47 cruz

    the 49-46 TJ score was atrocious.

    i would say "the 49-46 cruz score isn't terrible" since the only round that was definitely TJ's was rd 4.

    ...until i saw this:

    http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6740/Dominick-Cruz-vs-T.J.-Dillashaw

    weeks scored rd 4 for cruz. (he was the 49-46 cruz)
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Judges scorecards are crazy, only in agreement on one of the five rounds. Media almost split right down the middle, pretty crazy but not surprising in the least.
     
  13. Subli Black Belt

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    48-47 Cruz most definitely. I'm surprised Cruz was still the underdog in live betting after the first round ended. Missed some good $ opportunity there.

    Congrats to Cruz backers !

    I was very hesitant about this fight..
     
  14. Ukram Silver Belt

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    My goodness wack, I think we both get trigger happy fingers at the same timex, first we backed kanehara going deep into that sub only for mcdonald to reverse and sink in his own choke of destruction and then we both got out of our cruz plays, I blame bet365 live bet lines going up and down like a yoyo lol

    Still grats for hitting big win ! Am on my way up also, this was a normal card at least !

    Grats mate, the main thing is its in the + not - as I always say, does not matter if its 1 quid + !

    See live betting does have its perks sometimes :)

    You have been doing so well with that winning streak, and 2 team fav parlays, some of the best seen streaks on here in a long time frankly, but some off bad event days are to expected, gotta keep to what you do best really. Give me another event before I am posting, down 2K down !

    I was saying trinaldo, alvarez decisions are decent live dog plays but wanted to lb them so hammered on both, but sadly cashed out of my cruz play since it was too close but still made £600+, which is nothing since lost 1.4K last event, so plenty of work and catch up to do.

    But otherwise just like the few sharp eyes around here, am liking bader sub or decision as a live dog play but ill research that finer point in the lovely 2 week break we have now.
     
  15. Ukram Silver Belt

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    I scored it exactly like ez has:

    rd 1 cruz
    rd 2 cruz
    rd 3 cruz
    rd 4 tj
    rd 5 tj

    48-47 cruz

    When tj took r3 off and cruz turned up the heat in that round, I figured tj was going to save cardio and come back with some lawler late rounds 'I am the champ' madness and after what happen with condit, knew it was going to be a close one, sometimes I feel judges look for opponents that really do make a statement or lasting impression on the fight overall to get the nod, but cruz proved that was not the case....but only on the night !
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yeah lb saved my bacon last night it won me £1500. Never committed to it like that before so its clearly a great tool. Shame i lost 1k in pre event bets!

    Yeah was due a loss or two and i got cocky double whammy live and learn.

    Me and you are on the same path reckon we will have covered our losses this year by next event. If i win around £1100 next event back to where i was before losing streak kicked in. Yeah you did call Trinaldo spot on im never betting Ross again. Dont blame you for bottling it on TJ Cruz especially after r4 and 5 i thought id got all the way back to evens only to go and fuck myself! So relieved when Buffer said and...NEW!

    Bader dec +700 at BetVictor. Im not hedging tho very confident in AJ. Will be up for lb tho and if this does reach r3 onwards i will be watching very closely. Already bet Tarec + AJ 1k @ -110 on WHill.
     
  17. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Ps fuck Sunday shows ive had 2 hrs sleep!
     
  18. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    same, brutal
     
  19. Dusty Trunks Green Belt

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    Made out virtually even last night. Down .25u. Which I am quite thrilled with considering I dropped my first 4 bets of the night. Browne and Alvarez came up big for me. Looking forward to getting back in the green next event.

    I had it 3-2 TJ and had no action on the fought FWIW. Thrilled it went to Cruz however. I think an immediate rematch is warranted. However, if Cruz had to miss extended time, Dillashaw/Faber with the winner getting the next title shot makes a lot of sense
     
  20. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Yup takes time to claw back those losses, sometimes some creative withdrawals can level it out over some events, Pearson's still a great fighter but trinaldo has that fight iq and all round game coming in always, it was just a too close match up for him, if pearson was fighting a more static or slower guy he would get his style going, see how felder came into the next fight bopping his head and foot work... Its a bit like alvarez he really had no other choice but to grapple and wrestle, that is why pettis was training ttd drills in the back room I was just waiting for alvarez to get a take down or grind on him like rda, terrible fight but not when you win.

    Some of the other regs around here are crafty thinkers and planners! They were hitting Wade submission, latifi r1 ko, cruz/tj o4.5 days before we even got lines open on our euro bookies let alone props!

    My left eye was throbbing worse then matt mitriones @ 5am, but would do it daily if it meant in the + !
     

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