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UFN 81 - play by play / discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 17, 2016.

  1. YoungScholar Brown Belt

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    Just caught up on the fights and damn, shitty night overall for me. Lost a ton of long props and dumb parlays only really winning my big Côté bet which still was far from enough to break even. Down 7.24u total, yuck.

    Sadly I couldn't watch the main card live and it hurts a bit to see I missed out on some damn nice livebetting opportunities (Trinaldo being the biggest one).

    I thought Pettis edged R1 thereby deserving the win and lost a bit due to it, even so, he looked like shit and Alvarez was surely the right side as such a large dog.

    Good to see a lot of you managed to come back from some shitty starts and another redeeming quality of the night is seeing Cruz come back and reclaim his belt. Yay for bankroll management and on to the next one.
     
  2. wack3d Silver Belt

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    ya i noticed we have been hitting alot of the same lines.. great minds thinks alike? or something like that :D yes livebet can be a curse or blessing sometimes.. still by far its mostly a blessing :)

    thanks mate and congrats to you too! hopefully this will be a kickstarter and we can all start killing it again this year.
     
  3. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Only just watched Felder fight damn he was square as hell. He got outstruck but Cruick got outgrappled who would have thought that.
     
  4. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i don't agree with felder being square at like -210 etc. not saying cruick was a bad bet, but don't think felder was square.

    it was 1-1 on two judges cards.. and you have one guy who wilts, one guy who doesn't

    and the guy wilted and got finished, but would've lost the decision even if he didn't get tapped
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    He was -275 on the books i use if i remember rightly. If Cruick didnt gas he would have won he was outwrestling Felder in the first.
     
  6. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    yea, i just don't think it's as clear as "felder is square" etc (not just to you, sham, to a lot of people who've said it)

    and i got -210, tho i think it did close in mid 2's, yea
     
  7. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Keep your head up Sham! I also went through the "too cute by half" phase where I was betting on fighters in Bellator and WSOF which always bite you in the ass because they are not talk tier talent and you simply cannot rely on them. Also, I was like you and I wasted a lot of money on Noke which was stupid and I had him as the last leg of a +10 3 team parlay -- and although I believe he won -- he was a square bet at the end of the day and it will simply a poor decision on my part to put him in the bet to begin with.

    .Speaking of principles, I too got away from them a bit as well and started putting too much emphasis on chalk -- making two team parlay's with higher priced fighters -- trying to offset the juiced line of single plays. This was a mistaken as one of the chalky fighters would almost invariably lose. Or I would bet on every single fight. Consequently, I went back to my old strategy of quality over quantity and looking for value in the underdog. Doing this allowed me to hit on Cruz, Trinaldo, Herman and Côte plus I played Bochniak and though he lost I thought he won… And even if he lose it was the correct play given the line and closeness of the bout.

    But whenever you think you have done bad, just looked at MMAOB & Mike James who sells his picks.. he is getting slaughtered over the last few months and this last event he actually went 0-6 .... don't know how that is possible but he achieved it.

    ____

    BTW: I also love Tarec but don't know how to play him… He has only have one knock out in his career but I can see him starching Jake here. His line is a bit high SU and Jake just looks like he wants a place to crawl away and hide whenever he is forced to exchange punches.

    Also like rumble but should Bader survive the first round I think that his chances get better as the fight continues and I actually like the following plays : Bader wins R3: +2375 R4: +3375
     
  8. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    BTW : re: livebetting .. At least you guys have the option… Bookmaker didn't even open the LB option for FN. 81

    Lately they are hit and miss with their live betting availability.. They used to be the absolute best which is why I signed up with them to begin with.
     
  9. MMA Goodfella #Engaged + a Joe-Jitsu Piano Belt Capper

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    Yo EZ awesome job with the toutmaster win..I wasn't even aware that it was a thing until I talked to NDC..reppin the SD forum..I have always thought you were the best MMA bettor ITT (Much better than myself for sure) and you proved it! Kudos you Golden Jew you ..... (Decipher that!)

    Da GOAT
     
  10. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    hehe, i didn't win anything yet, we have 11.5 months to go!

    thx for the kind words, sorry you're not around as often nowadays
     
  11. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    i used to keep about a 3:2 ratio in BM and 5d. it's now 4:1 5d and bm. i frankly just leave BM $ there for the possibility of live betting, otherwise, it's just a shell of 5d nowadays
     
  12. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Is it ridiculously cynical of me that I love watching these "pay for our picks" guys get hammered? You better be KILLING it if you run one of those services, and from what people in this section who follow these guys say, they are not. I feel bad for people who are paying for those services when we have an open discussion about gambling on this forum between many people who are consistently successful And very knowledgeable of both the sport and Best practices of gambling
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Literally could not have said it better myself. MMAGF proved over a period of time here that he was a good enough capper to be a paid tout. There's others here too probably. But there's enough great insight here from guys like EZ, Joe B., Ukram, Wacked and a whole bunch of other good cappers that it's hard for me to think you could find better info or leans anywhere else.
     
  14. PuertoRican Gold Belt

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    Since the Cruz/Dillashaw thread is locked, I'll just leave this here.
     

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