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UFN 82 Play-by-Play and Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 6, 2016.

  1. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Not that big really 5K BR spread across 2 bookies for now, tend to keep bets wagered anywhere from £100-300 in general, rarely 1K ones are wagered since they are just as hit and miss at times, its mma after all.
     
  2. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Yes WB is amazing but still some ??? In my mind. Looks like someone that cant take damage.

    I doubt we will see + again by wonderboys name
     
  3. bruthead Blue Belt

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    Was down 7u mainly thanks to Borg and Lahat losing but livebetting Pyle and Nelson got me out of the hole, plus I had Roy decision and Wonderboy pre-fight, ended 9.7u up.
     
  4. Ukram Silver Belt

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    tbh I don't think there really is a system, you could probably win the next 10 parlays followed by lost it all the following week!

    I lost many bets on this event but all small ones, even played spencer and even placed a £300 lb on Rafael when osp broke his foot and the guy still lost lol

    But having said that your 2 team parlays are awesome and hitting so regular so a few rainy days can't spoil it.

    Yeah certainly blows I know, but think of it this way, spencer first ko loss in 17 fights, hendricks first ko loss in 21 fights, last week josh first ever sub loss, I don't think anyone could predict stuff like that, not even watching every fighter tape, interviews or reading every b/d on the net lol

    Keep going I say and don't give up on live betting it did give you your biggest winning night after all, perhaps play it with smaller bets and the bigger ones for the 2 team parlays where your best at.
     
  5. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Wise words. Glad theres a two week break need a few days to reset.

    Prob a good job i went to bed before OSP i would have hammered Feijao soon as i saw OSP hurt his foot!

    How long did WB's line stay + for?
     
  6. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Really? Jake hit him cleanly and WB ate it no problem.

    I agree probably no dog odds anymore for him. Only fight at WW I could possibly see it would be Maia and that would probably only be in a 3 rd fight (which it wouldn't be, it would be 5 for sure).

    I don't use silly phrases like "next level" and stuff like that, but his striking really is elite and then some. He's in that "Anderson Silva in his prime" territory.
     
  7. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    man, i can't remember an event as bad as this with people talking big on fighters and those fighters totally shitting the bed. and i'm not calling anyone out or rubbing anything in. i had a bad night, too. worst in 3 months.

    i saw spencer being called "the best bet in years"
    i saw lahat being called a "lock"
    i saw hendricks being touted a "nightmare matchup" and saw go big
    i talked a huge game about borg and borg sub, i was sooo dead wrong.
    (and i don't even wanna talk about lobov, ugggh.)

    there was merit to a lot of what people said, and it could've gone differently..

    maaaaybe we need to temper our enthusiasm at times?

    ...then again, maaaaybe just F this event?

    ufn 82: f you!
     
  8. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    This is not to brag or say I analyze fights better than others itd (because quite frankly I don't--I think I know what I'm doing but not more than plenty of others who post here) but one trap I think we maybe sometimes fall into is looking at things like "fighter x hasn't been stopped in 4 years" or "fighter y has never been subbed and has TKO wins in 4 of his last 5 fights".

    The perfect example were my bet(s) on Roy by dec last night. At first glance I didn't think it was more than a complete long shot that he'd ever win a decision. He hadn't won one in forever, what was the point of betting it? Odds offered a nice payout sure but really, Roy by dec LOL? Then I watched some tape of Rosholt. He was...pretty much what I remembered him being. A decent wrestler with a limited gas tank and not much else to his game. Then I watched Roy's fight with Barnett again and this is what really sold me. Josh tried to take Roy down a couple times and couldn't. Josh held Roy against the cage yes, but Josh is just better overall than Rosholt (and has a better gas tank). I really thought if Jared tired and became inactive and just ended up trying to push Roy against the cage (but not do much else) or just try to avoid Roy's big right hand that Roy could win a decision for sure based just on a small edge in activity.

    Did I think that was a "likely" outcome? No, not really. But it was +995 at one point! It was a classic case of a stylistic matchup that really overshadowed each fighter's individual history. I have fallen into the trap I described earlier plenty of times, and I need to remind myself to do analysis this way because I think sometimes I slack off on it.
     
  9. Agent Mulder Black Belt

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    Defintely a few lessons to be learned for me. Went too big on unexperienced fighters (Borg and Lahat), has happened before too unfortunately. I somewhat still stand behind the Hendricks bet since i really didn't see that coming AT ALL lol.

    Ended up down ~7u but so glad that there's live betting because it would have been way worse without some of the LB winnings I got.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2016
  10. BurningIce Green Belt

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    With so many dogs winning thought you would have a good night.
     
  11. ods White Belt

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    Great analysis. It's stuff like this that has me lurking here nonstop. I tailed somebody (probably you) on Roy by decision and it kept me out of the red. My three biggest leans before the card were Wonderboy, Roy, and Pyle and all three paid off well. If I had stuck with just them and not tried a bunch of dumb props I would have had a perfect night.
     
  12. Ukram Silver Belt

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    Yeah rare for me to ever say it also, am ok with the 2 week break for once but it does still bite.

    Yeah I could tell wack and yourself would have hammered it like nothing, I literally had cursor over button and soon as osp put weight on that foot and looked off, clicked it then line went off quickly naturally only time it goes through is when it loses.

    WB line was up for a while actually, I saw hendricks give a yes nod after wb handled that take down effort well and got back to his distance and range and soon as wb landed 1-2 kicks saw hendricks not looking good so hit that WB bet, but it went off quickly as he started to land more high kicks.
     
  13. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Yeah being so confident in Spencer even tho i catergorised him as a flakey fighter was moronic.

    I regard a lot of your opinions highly but letting myself be swayed from no bet on Borg Scoggins to a 1k bet on Borg was moronic.

    Bad night but invaluable lessons learned. Onwards and upwards fellas!
     
  14. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Sometimes the read and bet are correct but the fight has a low probability outcome. For example, i stand behind the Lahat bet and think 3 to 1 was ok. That flying knee is a very low probability to finish. Most of the time Lahat wins that fight.

    Similarly i am ok with my Rosholt bet. It was a close fight and i had rosholt at dog odds against a 39 year old guy that doesnt seem to be in shape.

    Lobov was just a straight bad bet.

    Fejaio also just a bad bet. Cant stand behind those guys.

    Many people were high on borg so we paid the juice. Not sure what to say about this one. I guess scoggins just surprised us

    Bol next time
     
  15. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    So funny how many cards there have been recently where a majority of my picks were wrong, but my most confident ones where I laid the most juice carried me to a profitable night and how this was the complete opposite. Was right on so many things but money in the wrong spots (Lahat, Borg, Rosholt livebets)

    In hindsight Borg was the dumbest play of the night. Getting him -180 makes it a bit better, but Scoggins had the strength of competition and there were a lot of questions still surrounding Borg's game.
     
  16. ClosetVitorFan Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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