UFN 87 - Netherlands - AA vs Reem

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I'm on Tumenov ML -170, his -3.5 (+120) and his KO +215. I hope I don't need to hedge but Gunnar by sub would be my play depending on how the prelims flow for me.

I wanted to play Leon Edwards' ML but it's just way too damn expensive so I'll have to ride with his ITD which unfortunately also has low value. I think he'll outright win and there's a chance it could hit the cards but Dom Waters is a straight bum.

I'm also staring at this Kyoji prop line really hard and I'm extremely tempted to play it.... I know it's flyweight and I know Seery's never been KO'd before but he's gettin up there in age and he has never been a guy to back down from a fight.

~~~~~~~

I don't have much pre-bets on this card which is surprising. My only play really is on Tumenov and the Rustam/Wade + Hein/Tuck going the distance.
 
The more I think of, the more I like Overeem to beat Arlovski.

Probably not smart play a soft-chinned HW fighting a guy with heavy hands and vicious power like Andrei but....

Econo-reem or whatever version of him we have today has looked nothing but amazing lately.

There is an argument I did not see ITT that is that the predictabilty in both guys.

Overeem figured JDS instantly (of course he watched tons of tape before the fight) and was able to adjust to perfection in that fight. He made JDS looked amateurish to the point most people thought he was a shadow of his former self after that fight. That was proved wrong in the Ben Rothwell fight. And he even TKOed a guy with granite chin with a perfectly placed shot (a beautiful left hook).

Arlovski is as predictable as they come. Even in his fight with Mir (insert infamous starin gif) he was so tentative because Frank was able to anticipate AA and was doing well countering. Andrei had no plan B. It looked like one of those videogames when you only know 1 punch (it happens to me because Im not a gamer) and throw it all the time. Well, that was Andrei.

He has not looked good in his second run in the UFC except for the brawl against Browne. His wins over Mir and Schaub were lacklusters and his TKO over Bigfoot was cool but did not showed much of him.

So by being the best fighter overall and show better performances in the UFC Overeem is my pick.

Red flags:

1) Overeem was outclassing opponents and lost in the past. That could happen here. You can expect another Rothwell/BF/Browne performance.

2) Last time AA fought a teammate (former, Browne) he came out guns blazing and went for the kill... and killed.
This time they say he is fired up and we all know what kind of power and speed he has.

This is going to be a hell of a fight!!!
 
Rebel_LioN said:
I'm on Tumenov ML -170, his -3.5 (+120) and his KO +215. I hope I don't need to hedge but Gunnar by sub would be my play depending on how the prelims flow for me.

I wanted to play Leon Edwards' ML but it's just way too damn expensive so I'll have to ride with his ITD which unfortunately also has low value. I think he'll outright win and there's a chance it could hit the cards but Dom Waters is a straight bum.

I'm also staring at this Kyoji prop line really hard and I'm extremely tempted to play it.... I know it's flyweight and I know Seery's never been KO'd before but he's gettin up there in age and he has never been a guy to back down from a fight.

~~~~~~~

I don't have much pre-bets on this card which is surprising. My only play really is on Tumenov and the Rustam/Wade + Hein/Tuck going the distance.
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Guessing the Kyoji prop line you're eyeing is him to win by KO?

I have too much on his ML, but I think Kyoji gets the KO too. Think we're the only ones. Kyoji hits hard, Seery is pretty flat footed, aggressive, and not really defensively sound. I expect him to eat some big power shots, I think one of them is gonna put him down.
 
I'm relaxed, it's a good sign, all my family and friends are here, Arlovski doesn't like me, he knows what's coming, like I'm taking something from him, it won't last more than 4 rounds, he's not a badi hari or JDS, I will win this one

 
it's all good, after the fight the coaches and I will pick up where we left off at Jackson's, I have a great experience in this arena, undefeated in Holland and undefeated in this arena

 
I finally bit on the +3.5 on Tumenov. I think he's pretty likely for ITD, but I can also see him winning a pretty clear decision.
 
SalvadorAllende said:
l

2) Last time AA fought a teammate (former, Browne) he came out guns blazing and went for the kill... and killed.
This time they say he is fired up and we all know what kind of power and speed he has.

This is going to be a hell of a fight!!!
Click to expand...

This scares me for o1.5..
 
I took a stab at Kyoji KO line. The guy is really aggressive and knows how to finish. Many of the karate background guys hang back but I think a KO is farily likely here and the price is good.

also fwiw he said in his interview that he is motivated to finish....I guess take with a grain of salt.
 
mkess101 said:
Struve had a medical issue that is supposedly fixed. Bigfoot legit needs TRT for medical reasons and without it has just looked like a shell of what he was. Even glancing shots seem to totally rock him now.

Struve is younger and has not gone through the wars and beatings that BF has either. I agree in plenty of spots Struve is fade worthy but not here imo.
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From an interview card posted few pages back struve said "I get a heart check up every 3 months, at some point they will have to fix it"

So perhaps not fixed, not exactly good news for struve or most of the regulars backing him, but do agree overall think struve still has this one, will keep an eye out to see if bigfoot has his balance, chin working and his defence going well with his ready to unload approach but just don't see it happening atm.
 
Ukram said:
Sherdog preview up

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/Preview-UFC-Fight-Night-Overeem-vs-Arlovski-104529

picks
Reem ko r2
struve ko r2
tumenov decision
randamie decision
barrosa decision
Kowalkiewicz decision
wade decision
magnus decision
tuck decision
cabral decision
hori decision
edwards ko r3
gates ko r1

Has sherdog preview guy been reading our threads !
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haha Sherdog preview guy also does bloodyelbow vivi. Listening to the show this week played out exactly like all the discussions in this thread (think the same dogs we do have chances for the same reasons, like a majority of the faves for the same reasons, etc) is was pretty weird in a good, confidence boosting way
 
Oblivian said:
I finally bit on the +3.5 on Tumenov. I think he's pretty likely for ITD, but I can also see him winning a pretty clear decision.
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I think Tumenov is most likely winning a decision. If the fight ends ITD, I'd lean toward Gunnar getting a submission.

As for just winning the fight overall, I favor Tumenov.
 
Oblivian said:
People were saying the same with JDS prior to completely schooling Rothwell. I think people read too much into that, especially with HWs. I think both Bigfoot and Struve are completely hittable. The main difference is Struve is also hittable on the ground. Struve has a guard, but my god does he get pounded anytime he's on the ground. It's been like that ever since he's in the UFC, even against low level competition.
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Totally fair point regarding JDS. I was among those saying he was shot. I was wrong.

But man Bigfoot's drop-off happened directly when the TRT exemption went away. With his pituitary issue it seems like the collapse has to have a lot to do with it. Would I be completely stunned if he wins? No way. Struve has issues too. That said i still cap Struve at -200 or so.
 
Joseph Budden said:
haha Sherdog preview guy also does bloodyelbow vivi. Listening to the show this week played out exactly like all the discussions in this thread (think the same dogs we do have chances for the same reasons, like a majority of the faves for the same reasons, etc) is was pretty weird in a good, confidence boosting way
Click to expand...

it should be noted that he fully admits: he's not a bettor. he said this week he wouldn't bet more than like $10 on a fight

just hope people recognize this when listening to his breakdowns. i'm not knocking him, i just want people to understand that he's not some betting guru (and he doesn't claim to be)
 
EzFlyer said:
it should be noted that he fully admits: he's not a bettor. he said this week he wouldn't bet more than like $10 on a fight

just hope people recognize this when listening to his breakdowns. i'm not knocking him, i just want people to understand that he's not some betting guru (and he doesn't claim to be)
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He'll come over to our darkside sooner than later. Just a couple months ago he wasn't betting at all, only a matter of time before hes a Sherdog MMA Gambling section regular :)

Definitely listen/read his articles more for fight analysis than any sort of betting insight though. Even though it is cool they take a look at odds and go over what they like.
 
anyone else like cedenblad to finish via sub? mclellan has poor tdd and is easily grindable.
 
piglord said:
anyone else like cedenblad to finish via sub? mclellan has poor tdd and is easily grindable.
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Yeah, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a ground & pound TKO and the sub line doesn't pay much.
 
piglord said:
anyone else like cedenblad to finish via sub? mclellan has poor tdd and is easily grindable.
Click to expand...

Yes, of course.. We all do! That's why it is damn near even $.. Hehe. No bet for me
 
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