UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

[daggen]

Big bet on Eye, small on Eye itd. McMann is done imo and Eye is just so much tougher.

 

[mkess101]

I think Koch/Campbell is gonna be a great scrap. Putting a little on it for FOTN at +700.

 

[Stunna77]

I know it's a Fight Pass prelim but I bet Sterling/Caraway FOTN at +700. Also like the over 4½ KOs on up as I see a lot of KOs happening. Also took a couple flyers on submissions under 1½ and no submissions both at + money.

JimGunn, can you share who you think the likely KO's are? Looking to do a few prop bets as well as finalize my DK lineups. I was thinking this card had a a lot of fights that could/should go the distance actually, so I am interested to hear your take on what fights are likely to finish ITD. Would appreciate it!

 

[bruthead]

Miranda 4/6 -150 with Marathon, Camozzi still 7/4 +175 with Coral/Sky.

 

[EzFlyer]

Yeah but I don't know why I mistook them for each other lol. Maybe they're both Brazilians and might be juiced.
I bought out of it and going to LB. Gonna put it on Stephens instead. Might be the night of the dogs.

trujillo is not brazilian =P

what's ironic is my phone always corrects me when i type rinaldi... and what's it put? trinaldo! (trujillo, trinaldo, rinaldi... haha)

 

[Stunna77]

Anyone got a good read on the Uda/Collier fight? I have seen that a lot of people aren't impressed with the tape on Uda, but just from some wiki-capping it seems he has finished some guys with good records and beat them at their own game. i.e. submitted other good grapplers and KO'd other strikers. Collier has looked decent in the UFC, but has also folded to finishers. I was initially thinking Uda for sure, but now i am hesitant seeing some of the regulars itt thinking Collier may be the better side.

 

[kenCs]

trujillo is not brazilian =P

what's ironic is my phone always corrects me when i type rinaldi... and what's it put? trinaldo! (trujillo, trinaldo, rinaldi... haha)

I keep getting autocorrected aswell. Rinaldi to Ronaldo. Truijjilo to Trinaldi etc.

Shit keep mistaking Truijillo for his Brazilian look alike Thiago Santos. I should lay of the grass for a bit.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Played over 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 decisions

 

[EzFlyer]

so some like over subs.. some like under subs.. some like over ko's...

I actually think I like over decisions

Likely decisions:
Larkin masvidal
Stephens barao
Story saff
Camozzi Miranda
burkman felder
eye mcmann
koch campbell
sterling caraway

iffy decisions:
garbrandt almeida
trujillo rinaldi
collier pereira (this could be...)
milstead delarocha (this one won't be dec)

so i'm actually going against the grain and going over decisions...

 

[EzFlyer]

Decisions. I actually think we'll see a decent amount tonight.

Likely:

Story/Saff, Larkin/Mas, Eye/Mcmann, Caraway/Sterling,

Very possible:

Stephens/Barao, Camozzi/Miranda, Burkman/Felder

Have a shot:

Koch/Campbell

Pretty unlikely:

Cody/Almeida, Trujillo/Rinaldi, Collier/Uda (but maybe in the "have a shot" category?)

Almost no chance:

DLR/Milstead

I think the over 6.5 and over 7.5 dec props have some value at +178 and +480 respectively.

Played over 5.5, 6.5, and 7.5 decisions

^^ i should've read all the posts first.. guess i'm not alone!

 

[Joseph Budden]

so some like over subs.. some like under subs.. some like over ko's...

I actually think I like over decisions

Likely decisions:
Larkin masvidal
Stephens barao
Story saff
Camozzi Miranda
burkman felder
eye mcmann
koch campbell
sterling caraway

iffy decisions:
garbrandt almeida
trujillo rinaldi
collier pereira (this could be...)
milstead delarocha (this one won't be dec)

so i'm actually going against the grain and going over decisions...

haha, great minds think alike, @Joseph Budden

haha, yes indeed. I categorize the fights exactly the same as you

 

[EzFlyer]

I think my returns on parlays vs. singles is fairly equivalent.

over the long haul, if your bet sizing is consistent, that will always be the case

 

[Sham5916910]

Love me a good two team, sometimes three, but before that guy gets the wrong idea it is NOT a good decision to parlay Barao and Masvidal. Just play them separately with the prices they offer.

Oh most definitely i do not parlay slight favs and dogs.

 

[Sadistics]

Miranda down to -135, did I miss something with the weigh ins?

 

[EzFlyer]

Miranda down to -135, did I miss something with the weigh ins?

not the weigh-ins. they both looked fine (normal).

lots of touts are on camozzi, i believe.

glad i did a hedge when he was +200, but i'm still on miranda. just wish i did more on camozzi +3.5 as a psuedo hedge (that i could middle) when it was evens.

 

[EzFlyer]

wow, just wow.

uda sub:

opens +415.
skyrockets to +1780 and stays there for several hours
now it's back down to +595

whomever spotted that +1780: TY! it's my only play on the fight now, it was a must-play at that price

 

[mmaday4day]

wow, just wow.

uda sub:

opens +415.
skyrockets to +1780 and stays there for several hours
now it's back down to +595

whomever spotted that +1780: TY! it's my only play on the fight now, it was a must-play at that price

I got it @1780 too ;-)

 

[arrelione]

For the Uda sub chasers, he is still +1200 on unibet if you still wanna catch that.

 

[Kowboy Karl]

Took eye camozzi Larkin almeida Ronaldi fielder


70-4600

 

[NewcastleTom]

I don't know if this was a joke but someone described the cage as a phone booth, not an MMA guy who tweeted it, may have been a joke. Anybody hear anything?