UFN 88 - Las Vegas - Almeida vs Garbrandt - 5/29/16

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@EzFlyer

You put this in the betting thread:

2.27u miranda -152

2.88u larkin -115

Are you doing a specific calculation since you're ending up with betting 2.88 and 2.27 units?

As of now, I have the same bets for the Card, but didn't get as good lines though, but have decided to be more aggressive with my units on the singles.
 
Barao likes to square up and trade punches. He couldn't get TJ to do that with all that movement and angles. Barao has a willing dance partner with Stephens but he picked the wrong guy to do it with because he's gonna get his lights put out against the bigger stronger fighter here.

Barao has been tagged in every single fight he's been in.

He moves in straight lines or linear movement and he likes the classic Muay Thai long arm defense where he stretches out his arm. Stephens isn't the Dynamo that TJ is so that particular defense isn't gonna be exploited too much but Barao doesn't have any length advantage here so it's not much of an edge either.

As far as grappling goes, Barao's wrestling isn't anything to write home about. If Bermudez/Elkins had trouble in grinding out former LW Stephens I expect Barao to do no better.

My pick is Stephens by KO or decision. Barao will need to come into this fight trying to test Jeremy's cardio being that there are always reports that he has deathly cuts down to 45, ironically as Barao's had at 35. Throw in plenty of leg kicks and try to get out of the way.
 
yeah, idk. sometimes I look at a line and it almost seems too easy. Id think Felder would be -350-400, no?
Yeah that would be WAY too steep lol Felder's line seems about right. Thought it might actually be a bit better. He arguably dropped 2 rounds to Cruickshank before the finish and could be susceptible to tds
 
I have strong leans on Koch, Felder, AJ and Miranda. Going to watch tape before I commit tho.


Does Koch have a legit wrestling game?

If he doesn't I feel like Campbell has some top notch standup and should be able to out point most guys in the division in an all stand up affair
 
Just hoping Felder round 3 pays around +1500. Felder is likely to make Burkman work. KJ Noons threw about 4 punches in 10 mins, and Burkman was still dead tired in the third.

Also guessing Aljo's price will be juicy, and i'll be on Caraway. Hes sneakily good, and i'm not convinced Aljo's herky jerky fight style is gonna get the job done vs Caraway's very technical game

Aljo will guaranteed be pricey. I won't name the price cuz I ain't William Shatner but it will be unplayable given the hype. Also the fact that Bryan's bread and butter is trumped by the better overall grappling (at least on paper).

I wouldn't bet Caraway just because the bookies forced your hand. Caraway will not be able to keep Aljo grounded for more than a minute if he even were to get it down. And in the striking I don't think he wins a range battle where Aljo likes it and neither is Caraway any good in the pocket where I think Aljo is a bit weak at. I believe the odds for Aljo by finish may be more favored than his decision line so I think if you're thinking of playing Caraway it'll probably be best to take Sterling by decision with that idea/thinking.
 
Aljo will guaranteed be pricey. I won't name the price cuz I ain't William Shatner but it will be unplayable given the hype.

I wouldn't bet Caraway just because the bookies forced your hand. Caraway will not be able to keep Aljo grounded for more than a minute if he even were to get it down. And in the striking I don't think he wins a range battle where Aljo likes it and neither is Caraway any good in the pocket where I think Aljo is a bit weak at. I believe the odds for Aljo by finish may be more favored than his decision line so I think if you're thinking of playing Caraway it'll probably be best to take Sterling by decision with that idea/thinking.


Is caraway a mini Maia? His grappling has surprised me
 
Is caraway a mini Maia? His grappling has surprised me

How many real American wrestlers has Caraway faced though. Aljo will likely out scramble him and he won't be overthinking the threat of the TD like many of Bryan's opponents has in their heads.

I guess I'd bet the Caraway submission line as a hedge to whatever I bet on Aljo because he's not gonna beat Sterling on points. Caraway's definitely more experienced in comparison.

Definitely not a mini Maia though lol.
 
Aljo will guaranteed be pricey. I won't name the price cuz I ain't William Shatner but it will be unplayable given the hype.

I wouldn't bet Caraway just because the bookies forced your hand. Caraway will not be able to keep Aljo grounded for more than a minute if he even were to get it down. And in the striking I don't think he wins a range battle where Aljo likes it and neither is Caraway any good in the pocket where I think Aljo is a bit weak at. I believe the odds for Aljo by finish may be more favored than his decision line so I think if you're thinking of playing Caraway it'll probably be best to take Sterling by decision with that idea/thinking.
I think Caraway could win a striking battle. 'Herky jerky" really is the perfect term to describe Aljo. He reminds me of a BW Phil Davis. Solid kicks, outstanding wrestling, but has shown zero boxing.

I think Caraway gets overlooked, period. He is very good. The dude can strike. Its not the most pretty, its not exactly fast or powerful, but its technical, smart, and accurate. If he can keep this standing, I can see him winning the striking based off better boxing, more experience and higher IQ.

A little info for lurking Kalikas, i'm eyeing the over more than anything, but ever since this fight was announced i've planned on playing Caraway
 
Does Koch have a legit wrestling game?

If he doesn't I feel like Campbell has some top notch standup and should be able to out point most guys in the division in an all stand up affair

I though koch was still facing proctor. No way i bet him against campbell
 
Caraway did outstrike wineland albeit a very hesitant wineland.
 
The more i think about this card the more i may save it for lb only. Will decide after watching tape.
 
Barao likes to square up and trade punches. He couldn't get TJ to do that with all that movement and angles. Barao has a willing dance partner with Stephens but he picked the wrong guy to do it with because he's gonna get his lights put out against the bigger stronger fighter here.

Barao has been tagged in every single fight he's been in.

He moves in straight lines or linear movement and he likes the classic Muay Thai long arm defense where he stretches out his arm. Stephens isn't the Dynamo that TJ is so that particular defense isn't gonna be exploited too much but Barao doesn't have any length advantage here so it's not much of an edge either.

As far as grappling goes, Barao's wrestling isn't anything to write home about. If Bermudez/Elkins had trouble in grinding out former LW Stephens I expect Barao to do no better.

My pick is Stephens by KO or decision. Barao will need to come into this fight trying to test Jeremy's cardio being that there are always reports that he has deathly cuts down to 45, ironically as Barao's had at 35. Throw in plenty of leg kicks and try to get out of the way.

I've said this for a very long time - Stephens' power is ridiculously overrated. He has 22 UFC fights and only 5 (T)Kos. Payan survived with him only to be KOed in his next two fights.
 
I think Caraway could win a striking battle. 'Herky jerky" really is the perfect term to describe Aljo. He reminds me of a BW Phil Davis. Solid kicks, outstanding wrestling, but has shown zero boxing.

I think Caraway gets overlooked, period. He is very good. The dude can strike. Its not the most pretty, its not exactly fast or powerful, but its technical, smart, and accurate. If he can keep this standing, I can see him winning the striking based off better boxing, more experience and higher IQ.

A little info for lurking Kalikas, i'm eyeing the over more than anything, but ever since this fight was announced i've planned on playing Caraway

I think people forget that he outstruck Wineland.
 
I'm only on the over for Stephens/Barao as of now, but to play devil's advocate for Renan, Gagnon used a light footed, in and out approach that Dillashaw has proven to be Renan's kryptonite. In the rematch between Snake In The Grass and Renan, in the early rounds TJ would get too confident and box in the pocket flat footed and got decked a number of times for it. Thats how Stephens fights. Also, how many leg kicks did Stephens eat vs Bermudez? If Dennis was cracking him with those shots, they'll be there for Renan
 
The more i think about this card the more i may save it for lb only. Will decide after watching tape.
Yeah I don't love any of the ML right now especially after I missed opener prices.
 
@EzFlyer

You put this in the betting thread:

2.27u miranda -152

2.88u larkin -115

Are you doing a specific calculation since you're ending up with betting 2.88 and 2.27 units?

As of now, I have the same bets for the Card, but didn't get as good lines though, but have decided to be more aggressive with my units on the singles.

no, the most it allowed me to do was "to win" 250 on larkin, and i rounded it.. 287.50 for 250 -115, so it just happened to end at 2.88u

as for larkin's price, i did a little at the -130 and then more at -160, it just netted out to -152 stake (to win 1.5u)
 
I'm only on the over for Stephens/Barao as of now, but to play devil's advocate for Renan, Gagnon used a light footed, in and out approach that Dillashaw has proven to be Renan's kryptonite. In the rematch between Snake In The Grass and Renan, in the early rounds TJ would get too confident and box in the pocket flat footed and got decked a number of times for it. Thats how Stephens fights. Also, how many leg kicks did Stephens eat vs Bermudez? If Dennis was cracking him with those shots, they'll be there for Renan

i'll add that gagnon is a damned good fighter, period. renan took shit for that fight and it was kinda bs, just cause he was a huge favorite.
 
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