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UFN 89 III - PBP/discussion/etc

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by xMaxPower, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. Ukram Silver Belt

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    I missed every r3 play and the only time I played it was with bosses/o'connell.....

    Had some yo yo performances on this card went down and up, but then cowboy su and decision play on wb, so back up with some nice BR am ready for july crazynes.
     
  2. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I think I was a bit too heavy on Val, she was my biggest play of the card i'm pretty sure, but i'm not even mad about that fight. Jojo looked outstanding, best performance of her career so far. Just mad at a few other decisions I made, mainly the Jotko one
     
  3. Emon johnson White Belt

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    Yeah buddy! Didnt realize fights were in canada. Good thing! Came on here and realized not one person had cowboy and WB...
     

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  4. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Plenty of people were on Cowboy and WB lol but grats man
     
  5. Emon johnson White Belt

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    Thanks man. I went through the threads and it looked like 95 % of people were on Cote and WB was like 50 50 but i couldnt find one instance of someone playing both those two. I was pretty discouraged by this before the fight...
     
  6. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    @mkess101

    Just saw the Valerie fight. We got killed. Lots to learn from this one.
     
  7. waiguoren Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Ooooh, really disagree with you on that. But I'm the guy who was on Letourneau last night.
     
  8. cs02132 Green Belt

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    I deposited some money into my 5d account for the euros. It's good to have LB again
     
  9. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I have something like that every event. I was going to play the ITD line on Tamden/Jotko and decided against it and to play Tamden small. My logic was that Tamden is always going for the finish, and that could leave him open as well. Instead I pull the trigger on Tamden on a whim.
     
  10. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    This thread can be good and it can be bad. Sometimes the group can talk you out of a play that you believe in. I made the decision a long time ago to try to stick with my gut even if most are against that play. I think there was some massive groupthink going on with Cote.
     
  11. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    Been keeping track and organizing lines I like a lot better, I think its time to make note of dumb decisions in hindsight as well. Not the first time something like this has cost me either. The losses sting a lot worse when you realize you could've prevented it just by being a little smarter in decision making.
     
  12. Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I'm starting to be a bit more conservative on what plays that I choose. For example, if I see value in an underdog or think he can make it a fight, I'm starting to look at the +3.5 more than chasing the dog. Same with over/unders. If I think the under 1.5 is a definite possibility, I may just go after the ITD line to be safer.
     
  13. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    I'm with you. I always try to tell myself better safe than sorry when making bets, and while i've improved on my degen nature I definitely still have a way to go. Doesn't help when I constantly have to struggle through watching ridiculous lines I LOVE hit (best recent example +830 Caraway dec) and then think to myself "I loved that line, why didn't I throw more on it?" Round robins have helped ease that urge a bit though for me.
     
  14. LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Yeah i agree on both counts
     
  15. michi972 Purple Belt

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    After all plays, some live played Cerrone for about 60 dollars
     
  16. Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    Agree completely and Cote fight prime example. I was going to bet Cerrone big in a two man parlay but bailed after seeing almost everyone in here on Cote. It's happened before where i said i will stick with my gut but when i see the overwhelming consensus in here being on the other side i normally bail. Going to try and stick with my gut from now. The benefits of this group outweigh any negatives though.
     
  17. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Yeah I think every now and then this forum sways me and costs me $ on a fight but way more often I get great insight that helps me out. I remember as soon as WB/Hendricks was announced that I'd hammer WB at dog odds. And I did. And then so many people here were saying he'd have no answer for Jhonny's wrestling so I hedged more than I should have on Hendricks dec. Still won a bunch, but would have made a lot more had I stuck with my gut.

    On the flipside this forum saved me plenty of $ on Maia/Gunnar. I did bet Gunnar but WAY smaller than I was planning based on insight I got here. So yeah, it evens out at the worst imo.
     
  18. Joseph Budden Banned Banned

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    This.

    There is definitely a balance some guys have to find, but the food for thought and great discussions we have will always be helpful. I guess this is where being stubborn comes in handy for me (and I can't help but trust myself when i've been a hardcore fan since UFC 40) as I definitely don't feel swayed by group thinking. Pretty sure there have been many times i've been on my own with certain plays lol but that Gunnar vs Maia fight is a great example for me as well to what this forum does for me. I thought Gunnar stood a good chance to win, then I heard the thoughts of all the Maia backers, watched his last few and saw they were right.
     
  19. BluntTrauma21 Broner Brodie / Pulev Posse

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    I don't know, I've always had Joe's type of mindset where if I'm sold on a play I'm gonna make it no matter what. I look at this thread as more of one where I come to for info (looking at you Card, EZ's weigh in b/d's are very underrated as well), and to talk to bettors I respect about other fights that I'm not as confident on. If I have a strong lean I'm gonna make the play, no stopping it, gotta trust your gut. I liked Cerrone, wrote a b/d in one of these threads for my reasons why, others do the same and it's good for discussion.

    But if I have a slight lean where I'm not really sure, a place like this is perfect to bounce opinions of each other and see how it goes from there. I don't think this thread has ever cost me significant amounts of money from swaying away from a bet or into a bet, b/c those bets are always smaller ones where I didn't really have a strong lean on in the first place, if that makes sense.
     
  20. EzFlyer Titanium Belt

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    at the end of the day, we each have to make our own bets. no one's to blame except yourself as the bettor ... (well, except if your fighter does something stupid, of course!)

    "group think" type things can work and can fail. what's important is for us all to share the knowledge we have and leans to try to get more right than we get wrong. i think we do.

    lots of losses happen betting sports, it goes w/the territory. but in the end, you have to make up your own mind
     

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