Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jun 14, 2016.
Really big on Markos. She left Tristar and returned to her original gym at Michigan Top Team back in April so I expect her to mix it up well and come out a better aggressor in her next outing instead of just trying to headhunt with that cross. Definitely adopted the mold Tristar seems to impart on all their fighters in her last fight and I felt like that style never really suited her game.
with ya. i don't think lybarger has anything for her. biggest play on ufn 89. i don't know about the tristar exodus factor here, but i'll take any version of randa over lybarger.
i get the mccrory support. dude's looked pretty goddamned impressive since his return. but i think jotko can cause him some issues. he can potentially stifle some of the barncat's offense. price might be getting a little out of hand.
same deal with val vs jojo. val is solid, i'd take her if +100, but this is gonna be a competitive 115 wmma scrap, imo. price is a bit nutty to me already.
never bet against wonder boy before but i can't believe how many people are on him against rory. rory is a terrible match up for him in many aspects. rory is also on the last fight of his contract and is gonna come in there lazer focused.
just put 1u on jojo at +150. like tamden but this line is way too high
I flat out pick Jotko to win that fight, so for me the value on him by decision is going to be absurd when that line drops. Praying for a +300 opener.
I rewatched Tamdan vs Samman the other day and I don't see why people are so high on him
Kicking myself for missing Valerie at -140. Saw the line, went to place my bet, backed out after inputting the wrong amount and it jumped to -180.
It's another dog-loving card for me... which usually bodes well.
I have no idea why people are liking Saggo so much... he is probably slightly better on the ground, but considerably worse on the feet. Silva is just a damn good martial artist imo.
I'll take Herrera at +200. The guy proved to be an intelligent, technical striker in his last fight and an impressive BJJ practitioner vs. Borg... the only weakness is the wrestling. But I doubt Bagutinov will be able to keep him down.
Happy to take Alvey at current odds as well. His TDD is his best asset, and, assuming he won't be grinded, he should be favored in a pure striking match.
Also on Jotko... I am a huge Tamden fan, but this is a pretty bad matchup for him. I doubt he'll get to use his amazing BJJ, and I see him throwing too much power early, not KOing Jotko, and fading late.
As far as non-dogs I'm only on Bosse. His boxing looked very technical last time out and I trust his chin will be hold up far better than O'Connell. Should have a speed advantage as well, which is always important in big guy striking matches.
Barncat's line is too high for me to take right now, but I don't know how you can't be impressed with him. IIRC, you picked Samman to win that fight and Barncat finished him as the underdog. He's looked outstanding since his return.
Everyone is over priced and overly juiced. I'll wait til the odds shift to make my plays. For instance, I'd like to play McCrory but you're crazy to take him at -245. He should be at his original -160 opener or I imagined him really being at -115/-105 prices with Jotko.
I think a majority of these fights should really be in then -100s.
You guys go ahead and pay these bogus ass juiced lines, I'll wait it out. Maybe a couple dogs at these current prices are worth throwing some change on. I believe every single one of these dogs have a chance for upset but I'm not counting on them to. And I'm not letting these prices force my plays.
I really wanted to play Valerie, Barncat, and OAM but they're unplayable. Elieas Theadorou shouldn't be -300 favorite here aswell. Gonna be a dog night for me. UK bookie odds are skewed atm.
Imma have to play Jotko.
Im already big on Cote and placed some on Rory at evens.
That fight answered a few questions about both guys that I was looking at. Samman seems like a solid prospect, but the fact he was soundly losing to Gordon before the head kick was always a red flag, and Tamdan fighting for not even a minute til that fight told me nothing.
I wasn't overly impressed with either guy. The grappling was fairly sloppy at many points, McCrory seems more than willing to fight from guard which will cost him against better competition who have a better understanding of neutralizing his hips from on top. He can best Jotko, he hits harder and likely has a strength advantage when they clinch. But Tamdans current odds are beyond out of control. Jotko could easily land more from range, he's much lighter on his feet with a more diverse arsenal of attacks, and score takedowns for points without letting Tamdan scramble. I expect a close fight that looks similar to the Brad Scott scrap, but I'm dumb founded why people are this sold on Tamdan
The Markos fight all depends on Jones-Lybarger's TDD, which I don't have enough info on. She got desperate against Torres and ended up on bottom, but she may be far better if she expects the takedown, and she should be well-trained at the Lab.
i don't really agree w/this. he's pretty one-dimensional. he has next to no striking.. single body kicks, etc. he has average wrestling at best but a strong top game. he's best when he takes guys' backs in scrambles. saggo, like you said, is a great grappler. i don't know if silva has the edge anywhere, legitimately.
My strongest lean is still patrick cote.
Sometimes, less is more.
I am intrigued by randa markos in this spot as well.
These ML are unplayable and Im not gonna force em. Cote at +150 is still my favourite bet. Damn it might even be an LB night for me.
Agreed but Randa Markos at -200. Hell naw. Her last perfomrance was underwhelming as fuck. Valerie at -200 sucks aswell. At -150 I could of played her but at -200 nah. Barncat being closer to -300 is sucks. OAM at -400 lol. Nah Im not touching these now.
I think Elias is one of the only deserved big faves. The Santos fight is the epitome of a prospect development loss. He went too hard in round one, lost a lot of cardio for it, and self admittedly changed strategies to takedowns after the first which only hampered his gas tank more when Santos was proving to be the more physical fighter in the clinch.
I expect a much smarter performance out of a guy who's skill set has more than likely improved as well. Plus Alvey is really not good. Dude likes to stand and bang and he's kind of over rated even in that respect. Guys like Tom Watson and Dylan Andrews were out slugging him. Elias has basically everything going for him. He's faster, I expect him to be in and out to avoid the big punches, control the range with his good arsenal of kicks, chew up Alveys lead leg that he is extremely heavy on, Alvey loves putting his back to the fence where Elias will be able to clinch and take him down. BarrIng a Hail Mary punch or Elias not learning how to be more efficient with his energy as Lord Conor would say, I expect a dominant win
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