UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario part II

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That fight answered a few questions about both guys that I was looking at. Samman seems like a solid prospect, but the fact he was soundly losing to Gordon before the head kick was always a red flag, and Tamdan fighting for not even a minute til that fight told me nothing.

I wasn't overly impressed with either guy. The grappling was fairly sloppy at many points, McCrory seems more than willing to fight from guard which will cost him against better competition who have a better understanding of neutralizing his hips from on top. He can best Jotko, he hits harder and likely has a strength advantage when they clinch. But Tamdans current odds are beyond out of control. Jotko could easily land more from range, he's much lighter on his feet with a more diverse arsenal of attacks, and score takedowns for points without letting Tamdan scramble. I expect a close fight that looks similar to the Brad Scott scrap, but I'm dumb founded why people are this sold on Tamdan

The biggest takeaway from that fight should be that Tamdan has cardio and he's more physical than people give him credit for. Before the Samman fight, most thought that it would spell trouble for Tamdan if it got in the third round. Also, people thought Samman would be able to bully Tamdan. Tamdan doesn't look like it, but he's stronger than most in the division. He deadlifted 551 lbs in competition and I can almost guarantee you that is more than Samman even if Samman looks more muscular. That showed in the fight.

But overall, I agree with you on the odds getting out of hand. He has deficiencies exactly as you said. He's always looking to finish and will fight from bottom.
 
I think Elias is one of the only deserved big faves. The Santos fight is the epitome of a prospect development loss. He went too hard in round one, lost a lot of cardio for it, and self admittedly changed strategies to takedowns after the first which only hampered his gas tank more when Santos was proving to be the more physical fighter in the clinch.

I expect a much smarter performance out of a guy who's skill set has more than likely improved as well. Plus Alvey is really not good. Dude likes to stand and bang and he's kind of over rated even in that respect. Guys like Tom Watson and Dylan Andrews were out slugging him. Elias has basically everything going for him. He's faster, I expect him to be in and out to avoid the big punches, control the range with his good arsenal of kicks, chew up Alveys lead leg that he is extremely heavy on, Alvey loves putting his back to the fence where Elias will be able to clinch and take him down. BarrIng a Hail Mary punch or Elias not learning how to be more efficient with his energy as Lord Conor would say, I expect a dominant win[/QUOTE

I disagree. I would think he would be a -175 to -185. Elias isn't as skilled in this match up to be a -300 favorite and he could be KO'd at anytime. He is gonna have a predictable gameplan which is to takedown Alvey against the cage and Alvey trying to stop em and use elbows ala Elias last fight against Santos. He is gonna tire himself out going into the third even though he says it wont happen again. Im not willing to take that chance.
 
FFS even Colvington is -300. Hopefully his ITD is better.
 
The biggest takeaway from that fight should be that Tamdan has cardio and he's more physical than people give him credit for. Before the Samman fight, most thought that it would spell trouble for Tamdan if it got in the third round. Also, people thought Samman would be able to bully Tamdan. Tamdan doesn't look like it, but he's stronger than most in the division. He deadlifted 551 lbs in competition and I can almost guarantee you that is more than Samman even if Samman looks more muscular. That showed in the fight.

But overall, I agree with you on the odds getting out of hand. He has deficiencies exactly as you said. He's always looking to finish and will fight from bottom.

It doesnt matter how effective you are from guard, judges always favour the fighter on top especially if the sub attempts are being neutralised.
 
The biggest takeaway from that fight should be that Tamdan has cardio and he's more physical than people give him credit for. Before the Samman fight, most thought that it would spell trouble for Tamdan if it got in the third round. Also, people thought Samman would be able to bully Tamdan. Tamdan doesn't look like it, but he's stronger than most in the division. He deadlifted 551 lbs in competition and I can almost guarantee you that is more than Samman even if Samman looks more muscular. That showed in the fight.

But overall, I agree with you on the odds getting out of hand. He has deficiencies exactly as you said. He's always looking to finish and will fight from bottom.
Agreed those were obvious takeaways on Tamdan's end. Samman has an athletic looking physique, but even from his days on TUF other than some flashes of good speed hes always seemed kind of awkward and not as athletic as looking at him would lead people to believe. Tamdan is basically the opposite where he is the balding, soft looking guy who has great strength physically and in his strikes, good cardio and impressive hip dexterity on the mat. I thought Samman had a chance to win keeping it on the outside, using his kicks and not letting Tamdan get close to use his power punching and clinch. Kind of how I can see Jotko winning. Thats failed once, hopefully Jotko isn't so willing to turn this into a grappling match like Samman was.
 
i don't really agree w/this. he's pretty one-dimensional. he has next to no striking.. single body kicks, etc. he has average wrestling at best but a strong top game. he's best when he takes guys' backs in scrambles. saggo, like you said, is a great grappler. i don't know if silva has the edge anywhere, legitimately.

I mean, we haven't even seen Saggo's hands since getting outboxed by Felder, who isn't a great boxer. He seems to have good knees and kicks though. Silva has a diverse arsenal of leg techniques which is annoying for his opponents, great range control from south paw, and easily out-boxed Escudero.

At the very least it's close.
 
I mean, we haven't even seen Saggo's hands since Felder, who isn't a great boxer. Silva has a diverse arsenal of leg techniques which is annoying for his opponents, great range control from south paw, and easily out-boxed Escudero.
I'm on Saggo and agree his hands are an unknown that concerns me, but that fear is somewhat negated by the thinking that he can not stop Saggo's takedown. Once Saggo does get the takedown, I think it could be a wrap just like the Salas fight. Silva has shown nothing at all off his back.

I haven't rewatched Silva's fights yet so my memory isn't as clear as it is discussing the other fights, but I don't remember him easily outboxing Efrain. I remember Efrain displaying his shit fight IQ and it costing him a close fight. Iirc he was cutting off Silva, keeping Silva's back on the fence, and instead of going for takedowns hed stand there and it became a low output, low level looking MMA boxing match. I think I can trust Saggo to cut off Silva all the same, and actually work for takedowns unlike Efrain.
 
Also on Alvey. Elias's line is awful. And Alvey is not a slugger. His fights in the UFC fool a lot of people. Prior to that, he had seen at least the third round in his 5 fights. I've watched him a lot outside of the UFC. His Bellator fights illustrate exactly what type of fighter he is. He neutralizes and looks to counter strike. He can be incredibly frustrating to bet on because he doesn't throw a lot as he only looks for openings. Basically, he tries to use his opponents aggression against him.

This is exactly the type of fight that should favor him. Elias can't help but move forward and try takedowns. I think Elias is going to have some trouble here, and if he does win, I see it likely being a fairly close decision. It's strange to me that Elias got way overvalued in his last fight and is coming in this high for this fight.
 
Also on Alvey. Elias's line is awful. And Alvey is not a slugger. His fights in the UFC fool a lot of people. Prior to that, he had seen at least the third round in his 5 fights. I've watched him a lot outside of the UFC. His Bellator fights illustrate exactly what type of fighter he is. He neutralizes and looks to counter strike. He can be incredibly frustrating to bet on because he doesn't throw a lot as he only looks for openings. Basically, he tries to use his opponents aggression against him.

This is exactly the type of fight that should favor him. Elias can't help but move forward and try takedowns. I think Elias is going to have some trouble here, and if he does win, I see it likely being a fairly close decision. It's strange to me that Elias got way overvalued in his last fight and is coming in this high for this fight.
Oh cmon man we were on a good track with our agreements in the Tamdan fight but you had to be on Alvey. Can we at least take a moment to point out one of my good calls since you love reminding me of my losses lol think I was one of the only people who predicted Santos to beat Elias. Will consider the country of Canada a true disgrace if this man isn't prepared for Alvey's limited weapons after training with Firas and Tristar since January.
 
Anyone on Calderwood? If so, why? She hasnt done anything in the UFC to really impress, heck she was nearly beat by a fighter who was unknown on short notice.

Oh cmon man we were on a good track with our agreements in the Tamdan fight but you had to be on Alvey. Can we at least take a moment to point out one of my good calls since you love reminding me of my losses lol think I was one of the only people who predicted Santos to beat Elias. Will consider the country of Canada a true disgrace if this man isn't prepared for Alvey's limited weapons after training with Firas and Tristar since January.

Imo Firas fighters tend to think of themselves as better strikers than they are. I wouldn't be surprised to see Elias wanting to stand and trade with Alvey. I would give the edge there to Alvey. Elas is gonna get tagged a few times and revert to his bread an butter which is wrestling. He is gonna try take Alvey against the cage with Alvey defending it and spamming elbows. If it reaches a third round, I think Elias may squeeze out another TD to win a decision but the two rounds before, I think Alvey may have enough heat in his hands to wobble and maybe finish Elias. Elias dec, Alvey ITD may be the plays here but even then LB may be the way to go. I expect a striking battle in the first round with Alvey winning and Elias dec lines to be much better (I dont know what it is right now).
 
Oh cmon man we were on a good track with our agreements in the Tamdan fight but you had to be on Alvey. Can we at least take a moment to point out one of my good calls since you love reminding me of my losses lol think I was one of the only people who predicted Santos to beat Elias. Will consider the country of Canada a true disgrace if this man isn't prepared for Alvey's limited weapons after training with Firas and Tristar since January.

I was on Santos also. I remember others being on him too - it probably was you. I think what we are going to find is that Elias can exploit guys with poor takedown defense, poor cardio, or struggle with physicality. One thing about Alvey is that he doesn't really lose that easily. He doesn't get bullied very easily and he doesn't really tire out. Besides Brunson, his losses have had scary moments. He came back good against Watson. His loss to Mutapcic was similar at points. The loss to Viana was controversial. A lot of those losses can be attributed to him not pulling the trigger, and I just don't see that happening here with Elias's high output.
 
I'm on Saggo and agree his hands are an unknown that concerns me, but that fear is somewhat negated by the thinking that he can not stop Saggo's takedown. Once Saggo does get the takedown, I think it could be a wrap just like the Salas fight. Silva has shown nothing at all off his back.

I haven't rewatched Silva's fights yet so my memory isn't as clear as it is discussing the other fights, but I don't remember him easily outboxing Efrain. I remember Efrain displaying his shit fight IQ and it costing him a close fight. Iirc he was cutting off Silva, keeping Silva's back on the fence, and instead of going for takedowns hed stand there and it became a low output, low level looking MMA boxing match. I think I can trust Saggo to cut off Silva all the same, and actually work for takedowns unlike Efrain.

Watch the fight... Efrain landed one good punch and looked uncomfortable even when he had Silva backed up.

Saggo's wrestling is pretty unknown as well. He got doubled and then swept Salas with an omoplata, so we didn't discover anything there. I don't remember him having success with the TDs against Felder, but that isn't really a black mark considering Felder's amazing TDD.

Silva is a pretty smart fighter, though. I think he will be able to stay on his feet, and may be able to mix up takedowns to steal rounds.
 
Anyone on Calderwood? If so, why? She hasnt done anything in the UFC to really impress, heck she was nearly beat by a fighter who was unknown on short notice.



Imo Firas fighters tend to think of themselves as better strikers than they are. I wouldn't be surprised to see Elias wanting to stand and trade with Alvey. I would give the edge there to Alvey. Elas is gonna get tagged a few times and revert to his bread an butter which is wrestling. He is gonna try take Alvey against the cage with Alvey defending it and spamming elbows. If it reaches a third round, I think Elias may squeeze out another TD to win a decision but the two rounds before, I think Alvey may have enough heat in his hands to wobble and maybe finish Elias. Elias dec, Alvey ITD may be the plays here but even then LB may be the way to go. I expect a striking battle in the first round with Alvey winning and Elias dec lines to be much better (I dont know what it is right now).
Yeah i'm torn on Tristar as a whole, i've posted how I think they're kind of over rated even if still a great team, but based on interviews (thanks Card) I expect Elias to fight smart. He seems like a sharp guy, which i'm sure is part of the reason why hes at the level he is despite not even training martial arts long at all.

While I think a takedown attempt is inevitable with how often Alvey will back himself up against the fence, I wouldn't be surprised if Elias outpoints Alvey on the feet. In interviews hes spoken about how not adapting his strategy to the way the fight is going vs Santos hurt him, since he feels he had no reason to try to grapple at the point he did which I agree with. Alvey has no footwork, and stands really heavy on his lead leg. Thats just a recipe for Elias to chew him up with kicks at range.
 
Yeah i'm torn on Tristar as a whole, i've posted how I think they're kind of over rated even if still a great team, but based on interviews (thanks Card) I expect Elias to fight smart. He seems like a sharp guy, which i'm sure is part of the reason why hes at the level he is despite not even training martial arts long at all.

While I think a takedown attempt is inevitable with how often Alvey will back himself up against the fence, I wouldn't be surprised if Elias outpoints Alvey on the feet. In interviews hes spoken about how not adapting his strategy to the way the fight is going vs Santos hurt him, since he feels he had no reason to try to grapple at the point he did which I agree with. Alvey has no footwork, and stands really heavy on his lead leg. Thats just a recipe for Elias to chew him up with kicks at range.

Isnt Alvey on a TKO loss from Brunson? Had a broken jaw if I recall and those are nastyHow is he gonna take a punch coming in? Few questions here. Now that I think about it, Elias should be a considerable favorite maybe even -200 but Im not convinced he is -300 favorite for how close a fight I think this is going to be. Hopefully Elias dec is at + odds (I doubt it).
 
Watch the fight... Efrain landed one good punch and looked uncomfortable even when he had Silva backed up.

Saggo's wrestling is pretty unknown as well. He got doubled and then swept Salas with an omoplata, so we didn't discover anything there. I don't remember him having success with the TDs against Felder, but that isn't really a black mark considering Felder's amazing TDD.

Silva is a pretty smart fighter, though. I think he will be able to stay on his feet, and may be able to mix up takedowns to steal rounds.
Yeah i'll have to check it out even if it is a bit too late. I'm content with hitting the opener on Saggo at -140, but at this point think the best value will end up being Silva by dec if it opens in the +250 - +300 range which it most certainly will. Didn't expect Saggo to pass -200 at all.

I wanted to say hopefully I can hedge out if Silva keeps it upright for the majority of round 1, but I just realized the prelims are on FS2? I don't remember the last time that happened and if they offer livebet for fights on that channel, fuckkk.
 
Isnt Alvey on a TKO loss from Brunson? Had a broken jaw if I recall and those are nastyHow is he gonna take a punch coming in? Few questions here. Now that I think about it, Elias should be a considerable favorite maybe even -200 but Im not convinced he is -300 favorite for how close a fight I think this is going to be. Hopefully Elias dec is at + odds (I doubt it).
Yeah he got mauled by Brunson but was never completely out. Just came a point where the ref really had no choice but to step in, was a solid minute of him just getting swarmed.

I know he had a broken jaw, but I wouldn't put any stock into that affecting his chin. I can't recall anyone breaking their jaw and subsequently looking like they can take less of a punch. Plus Elias isn't heavy handed, and I dare say hes not even really a good puncher. His best method of attack is definitely using his feet to play with the range and attacking with kicks from what hes shown so far. I expect that to stay the same vs the style that Alvey brings
 
Yeah he got mauled by Brunson but was never completely out. Just came a point where the ref really had no choice but to step in, was a solid minute of him just getting swarmed.

I know he had a broken jaw, but I wouldn't put any stock into that affecting his chin. I can't recall anyone breaking their jaw and subsequently looking like they can take less of a punch. Plus Elias isn't heavy handed, and I dare say hes not even really a good puncher. His best method of attack is definitely using his feet to play with the range and attacking with kicks from what hes shown so far. I expect that to stay the same vs the style that Alvey brings

IIRC if you get a broken jaw once, the chances of it happening again increase by a lot. You dont need to be hit hard for it to be broken again, just at the right angle. Jaws take a really long time to heal aswell and I tink he may have broken his at the end of December. Brunson is more explosive and powerful than Elias but I doubt Elias doesnt have the power to break a jaw.
Maybe what Cerrone done to Makedessi is still fresh on my mind.
 
Elias dec/ Aves ITD lines out? I still think those are the plays here.
 
Elias dec/ Aves ITD lines out? I still think those are the plays here.
General props probably out sometime today, but not yet

Call me crazy but i'm gonna couple my Elias plays with Alvey round 3. Elias starts too strong to get caught early like a lot of Alvey's previous wins I think, if he hasn't improved his cardio management that will be a problem since Alvey has solid cardio and heart. Was razor close to finishing Watson in round 3 after dropping the first two rounds which could easily be a scenario he finds himself in in this fight. And the price is likely to be ridiculous.
 
General props probably out sometime today, but not yet

Call me crazy but i'm gonna couple my Elias plays with Alvey round 3. Elias starts too strong to get caught early like a lot of Alvey's previous wins I think, if he hasn't improved his cardio management that will be a problem since Alvey has solid cardio and heart. Was razor close to finishing Watson in round 3 after dropping the first two rounds which could easily be a scenario he finds himself in in this fight. And the price is likely to be ridiculous.

Nice. Seems solid.

Do you see the juiced lines getting better before weigh ins? This might be the only time to actually get Cote at +150.

Actually, seems like they are having earlier weigh ins same as UFC 199. The only advantage for us bettors is that we get to see the size differences in the second weigh ins. Cote should be considerably thicker than Cerrone.
 
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