UFN 89 - Wonderboy vs Waterboy - 6/18 - Ontario part II

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Val dec -115
Covington dec -112

I think both of these hit, but just marginal value with the lines so playing them small.

OAM dec +248 I agree with Joseph B this has some value. Nothing big but worth a small stab.

Call me cray but I don't like Val dec at that price. JoJo is gonna get finished. Its a wonder she is in the UFC but you could say that for half the women in the UFC. JoJo isn't going to like the strength of Valarie. Ill do a B/D closer to the fight if I feel like it but if you guys could find Val for -150 ML, take it.
 
I think it'll go the other way. It'll end up being even odds by fight time.


LOL I think you're both wrong. I think it stays within the range it's been Cote +135 to +160.

The line has been out for awhile, and while of course there will be some late action, I think it will probably be fairly evenly split. Cowboy has more name recognition and buzz by far these days, but Cote will look bigger at the weigh in and if Cowboy gets bet at all I think there will be enough people looking at Cote's line to hammer it as soon as it creeps up

The best value imo is Cote's dec line which sits at +320. That's just bonkers to me given how durable both guys tend to be and how close this fight is very likely to be.
 
Call me cray but I don't like Val dec at that price. JoJo is gonna get finished. Its a wonder she is in the UFC but you could say that for half the women in the UFC. JoJo isn't going to like the strength of Valarie. Ill do a B/D closer to the fight if I feel like it but if you guys could find Val for -150 ML, take it.

Jojo isn't very skilled, but she's tough as hell and I don't see Val doing enough damage to finish. I guess I could see her getting a dominant position and just throwing enough volume from that spot where the ref has no choice, even if Jojo isn't actually hurt. I have Val ML but at -175 I think. Might add if it drops and I can get it closer to -150.
 
It will be placed by Friday morning. We'll see what the numbers look like then.

You wont find Cote for better than +150. Snap that shit up. I hammered Cote at +140 and kept hammering at +150. After weigh in it will be closer to +110 imo. Some people will see the thickness of Cote compared to Cerrone.
 
could be interesting if she has brushed up on her SD, gotta be more focused to move camps to Tristar

 
kinda liking soto ITD +429 (tho soto sub might be better when that opens)
 
I'd set the following lines as

Ali/Geane -180/+160
McCrory/Jotko -140/+120
Saggo/Silva -125/+105

I think those odds reflect the fight a bit better.
 
I cannot believe Saggo is such a big fav. If he can't get Silva down he loses this IMO. I'm yet to remind myself of Silva but if memory serves me right this line is definitely off. Loving Silva dec line.

So many close fights yet another great lb card.
 
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rory is an in your face pressure fighter who basically works his way inside using the jab. wonderboy has had success because his opponents gave him too much room to work with. if you get inside on wonderboy he won't be able to use the best part of his game....his very dangerous and awkward high kicks. rory also has the best "mma wrestling" out of anyone wonderboy has fought thus far. i think rory puts on a clinch fest against the cage, while constantly working for the TD. another huge factor that a lot of people are missing is that wonderboy trained A LOT with weidman, which he hasnt been able to do this camp.

I don't read too much into Weidman not being available. Weidman pulled out of the Rockhold fight about three weeks ago so there must have been a fair bit of training time together. Cormier has also done just fine without Cain.

I wouldn't call Rory a pressure fighter either my recollection of him is he likes to stand at range. The more I think about this fight the more I like WB.
 
I don't read too much into Weidman not being available. Weidman pulled out of the Rockhold fight about three weeks ago so there must have been a fair bit of training time together. Cormier has also done just fine without Cain.

I wouldn't call Rory a pressure fighter either my recollection of him is he likes to stand at range. The more I think about this fight the more I like WB.

This is so true. And I actually thought of him a more a pressure fighter too until I rewatched his fights with Woodley, Saff, and Robbie (both Robbie fights). It's not that Rory won't work his way inside using mainly his jab to do so, but he REALLY picks his spots. He's just WAY more content to sit behind his jab on the outside than I remember. And obviously the problem with that against WB is that he's right in the danger zone for those brutal kicks.

Rory's jab can still be a good weapon for him in this fight be he HAS to use it more often as his entry point to closing distance and not to just keep his opponent at the end of it. He even likes to use it to set up his own kicks but playing that game with WB, LOL good luck.
 
This is so true. And I actually thought of him a more a pressure fighter too until I rewatched his fights with Woodley, Saff, and Robbie (both Robbie fights). It's not that Rory won't work his way inside using mainly his jab to do so, but he REALLY picks his spots. He's just WAY more content to sit behind his jab on the outside than I remember. And obviously the problem with that against WB is that he's right in the danger zone for those brutal kicks.

Rory's jab can still be a good weapon for him in this fight be he HAS to use it more often as his entry point to closing distance and not to just keep his opponent at the end of it. He even likes to use it to set up his own kicks but playing that game with WB, LOL good luck.

I rewatched a handful of Rory's fights last night and the only time I saw him consistently applying pressure was the first two rounds against Condit. Obviously that was a long time ago and Rory ended up getting dominated/finished in the third. But, as others have said he probably needs to maintain that pressure to win this fight. With that said, I have a hard time seeing him doing that over 5 rounds without getting tagged with something big from Wonderboy. I'm already on Wonderboy at +110 and I'm considering taking his KO line as well.
 
Rory needs to fight completely different. Very hard to change your style especially when you are well into your career like Rory.
 
Ok i must have been smoking crack when i've seen Silva fight he is pretty bad. I haven't watched the Efrain fight yet but he has bad tdd, can easily be out scrambled and pretty low output. Saggo is definitely the right side but at -200 now bit pricey for me. So thankful for Fightpass!
 
I cannot believe Saggo is such a big fav. If he can't get Silva down he loses this IMO. I'm yet to remind myself of Silva but if memory serves me right this line is definitely off. Loving Silva dec line.

So many close fights yet another great lb card.

Silva doesnt have anything on the feet...
 
Close to my hometown, i did my research, Silva is well rounded, I always go in to finish, I've learned alot from my split decision loses, my achilles tear built up stronger

 
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